Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 301655
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1155 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Surface low pressure extended across southern Kansas into western
Arkansas. Drier air in the lower levels has continued to affect
precipitation from reaching the ground across western Nebraska. The
exception has been in Frontier, Hayes and southeast Lincoln, where
light rain or light snow has begun to occur. Temperatures still
holding in the upper 3s0 to lower 40s central and eastern areas,
except upper 20s to lower 30s northwest sandhills.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Just modified the forecast to eliminate the winter weather
advisory from Logan and Blaine counties and to downgrade the
warning in Custer county to a winter weather advisory. A robust
area of deformation precipitation continues to push into central
and southwestern Nebraska this morning. As it travels west, it has
hit a decent amount of dry air which has led to a sharp definition
on the back side of the precipitation shield. Over the past
hour, precipitation, mainly rain has pushed into Custer, Lincoln,
Hayes, Garfield, Wheeler and Holt counties. Some of this has mixed
with wet snow. Based on highway cameras, impacts to roadways have
been minimal across the forecast area as of the noontime hour. For
the remainder of the afternoon, we could still see some rain/snow
mix especially in association with the heaviest banding of
precipitation. At this time this is expected to stretch from
Frontier, northeast into Southeastern Lincoln, eastern Custer and
northeast into Garfield, Wheeler and Holt counties. As expected,
am not anticipating much in the way of accumulations this
afternoon with the high end of April sun angle. Any snow accums
will be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces. ATTM, am more
concerned about snow accums in the northeastern forecast area once
the sun goes down this evening. For that reason, decided to keep
the Winter weather advisory going in the northeastern forecast
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Today...An upper level low was positioned just east of the Texas
Panhandle early this morning. The upper low is forecast to track
into east central Kansas by late afternoon. A well defined
deformation band will develop from northwest Kansas into portions of
southwest and south central Nebraska this morning. Within this
deformation band, persistent lift and dynamic cooling will support
rain mixing with and changing over to snow this morning. The
deformation band will extend northeast across the entire southeastern
zones this afternoon, near and east of Hayes Center through North
Platte and Bassett. A sharp cutoff to the precipitation will exist
immediately to the west. Due to daytime effects, the actual amounts
of snowfall accumulation will be offset by melting and thermodynamic
profiles bordering from rain to snow at times. Snowfall amounts this
morning to range up to 3 inches in Frontier county to an inch or
less eastern Hayes, southeast Lincoln and southern Custer. Heavier
precipitation working into the area this afternoon will bring the
greater potential for snowfall accumulations around 3 inches or
slightly more across Frontier, southeast Lincoln and Custer County.
Existing winter storm warnings continue for Frontier and Custer
counties, while advisories continue for Hayes, Lincoln, Logan and
Blaine county. Remaining counties of Rock, Holt, Loup, Garfield and
Wheeler previously in a watch were placed in a winter weather
advisory from 18z this afternoon through tonight. Highs will
contrast from near 55 in the northwest sandhills to the upper 30s
far southeastern zones, where greatest potential for rain and snow
exists. Strong north winds of 25 to 40 mph will occur today,
limiting visibility where heavy snow falls.

Tonight...The upper low will lift northeast into southern Iowa. The
deformation band will continue to affect Custer county on into the
northeastern zones this evening and overnight. Most of the
accumulations for the northeast zones will occur tonight. Although
there has been an eastward shift in the track of the system, the
southeastern zones are still forecast to receive storm total
snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible. North winds 20 to 30 mph early evening, diminish to 10 to
20 mph after midnight. Lows tonight mainly around 33 degrees across
the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

The low pressure system will be just east of the region by Monday
morning. A few lingering snow/rain showers are possible early Monday
morning mainly across eastern Boyd, Holt and Wheeler counties.
Showers end by mid-morning with mostly cloudy skies prevailing
throughout the remainder of Monday. There`s a slight chance of some
isolated rain showers across the northern forecast area on Monday
afternoon as a weak frontal system moves southward. Confidence in
shower development is low at this time. Elsewhere, dry conditions
remain for Monday. High temperatures return to the upper 50s and low
60s.

Rain showers return for Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple weak
systems move southeastward over the central Plains. Showers will be
light in nature and thunderstorm development is expected to be low.
With temperatures well above freezing both Tuesday and Wednesday,
precipitation is not likely to change over to snow. Highs both
Tuesday and Wednesday remain in the upper 50s and low 60s.

A high amplitude ridge and resulting high pressure build into the
region on Thursday. Dry conditions return for Thursday through
Saturday. Temperatures continue a warming trend with highs reaching
the low 70s on Thursday and the mid 70s for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A spring storm system will affect areas near and east of a line
from LBF through ANW today into this evening. Some MVFR ceilings
are forecast at LBF this afternoon and early evening along with a
chance for p6sm -ra. Strong north winds 36025g35kt from late
morning through this afternoon for the LBF terminal diminish this
evening and overnight.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ009-010-
027>029-038.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ059-070.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Buttler
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Roberg


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