399
FXUS63 KLBF 010518
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1218 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with locally
   heavy rainfall through this weekend.

-  A trend towards drier and warmer conditions becomes
   established by the beginning of next week.

-  Potential return to active weather by the latter portion of
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The weak frontal boundary that brought showers/thunderstorms
with locally heavy rainfall to portions of central and western
Nebraska this morning into early this afternoon is still
lingering along the Hwy 281 corridor. This boundary will be a
focus for new convective development into this evening with
potential for locally heavy rainfall, though the bulk of this
activity is expected to remain just off to out east. Additional
robust convection over northeast Colorado and move into Kansas
and glancing far southwest Nebraska. Otherwise, the majority of
the region looks to be dry this evening into tonight before
isentropic lift and some short wave energy generate some widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms along a warm front that
will push up from the southwest and into the sandhills by early
Saturday morning.

Once diurnal heating becomes established on Saturday, the
airmass will become moderately unstable with CAPE values around
2500J/kg for much of the region in a well sheared environment
with 0-6km bulk shear values at or above 40kt by late Saturday
afternoon and precipitable water values approaching the 90th
percentile. Anticipate some robust thunderstorms will initiate
along lingering outflow boundaries from earlier convection and
also along a dry line to our west across the panhandle with
potential to move eastward/southeastward toward central
Nebraska. Location of boundaries will be a primary driver to
exactly where storms develop but anticipate along and south of
Hwy 2 will be an area to keep an eye on for severe wind/hail.
With the dry line not making a lot of eastward progress the
greatest threats for an isolated tornado looks to be more from Hwy
61 westward. Storms will diminish though elevated convection
will linger into Saturday night.

Highs Saturday will generally be in the 70s. Lows tonight will
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, then generally in the 50s
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Progressive flow regime with a series of shallow trofs moving
through the northern tier of states will keep active weather
across central and western Nebraska into the first part of next
week before a large ridge starts to build over the western US.
Passage of weak fronts may bring additional rounds of severe
thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday before opportunities for
convection wane heading into the middle of next week as the
western ridge builds. Will have to watch for potential of
thunderstorm development late next week in northwest flow aloft
depending on exactly where the upper ridge becomes established.

Temperatures through next week look to be running above normal
with highs generally around 80 near the SD border and in the
upper 80s south of I-80. Lows will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A few aviation weather concerns exist through the forecast
period, including thunderstorms, low ceilings, and potentially
fog. The first wave of moisture works into western Nebraska
overnight into the early morning hours, likely resulting in
scattered showers and storms. IFR ceilings and visby are
possible for the southern terminals (LBF) around sunrise.
Another round of storms will likely develop toward sunset.
Meanwhile, generally light east surface winds will strengthen
during the day and transition to south/southeast.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Snively