Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 052133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
333 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Arctic cold front continues to push across the area this afternoon.
The front push east of the area by early this evening. Behind the
front gusty northwest winds, at times gusting to 40 kts. Even strong
winds just to the west in the western panhandle of Nebraska due to
the higher elevation. Temps along and ahead of the front surged well
into the 50s and have crashed behind the front. 3 pm CST temps at
automated airports range from 56 at KBBW to only 30 degrees at KVTN.
Also seeing a some light snow across Sheridan and Cherry county,
although the snow is light, the combined gusty winds and snow are
reducing visibilities locally to a mile or two.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Main concern in the short term is the cold air and winds. Linger
light snow across NW Neb late this afternoon however dry air is
starting to win out with radar returns diminishing. Expect what
little snow there is to be ending fairly soon with a dry forecast
overnight. Also seeing some decreasing in clouds which will allow
for more radiational cooling. One thing to halt the fall of temps
will be a continuing mixed lower level of the atmosphere. Winds
expected to remain at 10 to 25 mph overnight with north central
likely seeing gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Forecast follows a blend of
guidance and this combined with the gusty winds will drop wind
chills below zero, locally around 10 below zero. Cold advection
pauses tomorrow afternoon with models in good agreement with 850 mb
temps hold in the -6 to -12 C range. Highs struggle into the 20 and
lower 30s even with some sunshine expected. Bone dry column with
model pwats around 0.10 inches and forecast is dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

First major concern in the upcoming days will be the chance of some
wintry precipitation on Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Precipitation chances begin Tuesday evening across southwestern
Nebraska. Cold air will keep all precipitation as snow with the
greatest accumulations across southwestern and southern Nebraska.
Accumulations will total between 1 to 3 inches with the highest
amounts towards the south. Uncertainty still remains in the
forecast about how much moisture is available with this system as
well as the track of the system. Both factors could significantly
affect how much accumulating snow occurs across southwestern
Nebraska. For now, will stick with a general 1 to 3 inches along and
south of I-80 before coming to an end late Wednesday morning.

Arctic air will then filter in behind the system for the middle of
the week. Current model trends have 850mb temperatures in the -14 to
-16 degree C range for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. This
will result in surface temperatures on Wednesday to be in the 13 to
20 degree range. Even colder temperatures arrive on Wednesday night
with lows dropping into the single digits along and south of a line
from Valentine to Ogallala. Temperatures will fall into the negative
single digits north of this line, with the coldest temperatures
across southern Sheridan county. In addition, strong northwest winds
will gust to near 20 to 25 mph. The combination of cold temperatures
with strong winds will lower our wind chill values into the negative
teens for most locations on Wednesday night. Even colder wind chills
(between -20 and -30 degrees) will occur north of a line from
Ogallala to Valentine. There is a strong possibility that wind chill
headlines will be needed Wednesday night. Will hold off another
forecast cycle or two until issuing any headlines. Thursday highs
will remain below 20 degrees.

Beyond Thursday, more milder air returns to the region. High
temperatures rebound into the low 40s by the weekend with mostly dry
conditions prevailing. Overnight low temperatures also warm up into
the 15 to 20 degree range for the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A strong Arctic cold front has already pushed across the far
northwest Sandhills shifting the winds out of the northwest. This
cold front will continue to track across western and north central
Nebraska throughout the day. Behind the front winds will become
strong out of the northwest around 15 to 25 knots and cloud
ceilings will lower with incoming mid cloud deck. In general, VFR
conditions are expected to be observed over the next 24 hours.


Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Arrival of first major outbreak of artic air will result in the
chance for ice formation on the area rivers (ice jamming). Rivers
will need to be monitored for potential ice jamming over the next 72
hours, especially during the overnight when temps are coldest.




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