Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 292013
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
313 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS...NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO...AS WELL AS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MANITOBA. HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...SW OF THE SO CAL COAST. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWD INTO CENTRAL KS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A BROAD SHIELD OF CLOUDS
EXISTED WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE 12Z ANALYSIS OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS OF
COLORADO THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH HAS LARGELY CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTH...LEAVING BEHIND STRATUS...NORTHERLY WIND AND A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  AS OF 19Z...THE STRONGEST OF THE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KEITH COUNTY...ALONG A CAPE
GRADIENT WHERE THE STORMS ARE FEEDING ON UPWARDS TO 1000 J/KG OF
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

THE LATEST HI-RES ANALYSIS IS INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR WEST WITH
THE CURRENT STORMS...THUS THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE NAM GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING DECENTLY.  FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE SHOWERS/THUNDER ENDING DURING THE 00-03Z TIMEFRAME.  IN THE
MEANTIME...THE CAPE COMBINED WITH 25-30 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
PROVIDE FOR A MARGINALLY STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...ELSEWHERE ONLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THE CONTRIBUTION OF
CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS SMALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...SO LARGE HAIL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT GUSTY WIND AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORM.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE KLNX RADAR SUGGESTS RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER
HOUR UNDER THE CURRENT OF HEAVIEST CORES...WITH ONE HOUR ACCUMULATIONS
NEARING 1.50-1.75 INCHES.  THE MOTION OF THE STORMS /20-25KTS/
SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FLOOD CONCERNS AT BAY...FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...UNDER A POST FRONTAL
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WILL GREATLY
INFLUENCE HOW COOL IT GETS...THUS THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
THE COOLEST CONDITIONS AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SATURDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE GREAT LAKES.  RECYCLED CANADIAN AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.  A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE TROPOSPHERIC OMEGA WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MID RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE OVER THE MID RANGE PERIODS IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...MAINLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LIMITED AND LITTLE IF ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY COOL WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE...AND HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM
NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH. WEST OF THIS LINE...SRLY WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD...LEADING TO INCREASED TEMPS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING AS WE ADVECT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WEST HEDGING TOWARD THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 70
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR
WESTERN CWA. INCREASED HEATING...COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S...WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED INITIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...QUICKLY ERODING BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...EMBEDDED IN THE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...ESPECIALLY AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE PANHANDLE...AS THE SURFACE FOCUS...BEING A
SURFACE TROUGH...REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DURING THE
PERIOD. EVEN IN LIGHT OF THE LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST...UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED POPS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS H85 TEMPS
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 20S/C PER THE LATEST NAM SOLN. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MONDAY.
LIKE SUNDAY...SURFACE HEATING AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

.LONG RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL COMMENCE BY MIDWEEK AS RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW SWRLY FLOW ALOFT TO PUSH INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS BY
MID WEEK. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH NEXT WEEK WITH
DEW POINTS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WARM WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING TO THE SOUTH...WITH ALL AREA TERMINALS REPORTING
NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR AND LOWER STRATUS HAS
DEVELOPED. THE AVAILABLE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLE
STORMS IMPACTING KLBF THROUGH 00Z. THEREAFTER...SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY DAWN...WITH WIND SPEEDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE.  SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
RIVER LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  HOWEVER NOT
ANTICIPATED...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.  PLEASE
CHECK THE LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CURRENT CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS





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