Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 171736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

The temperature forecast leans on the warmest model and guidance
which are the HRRR and MAV guidance for highs in the 70s to around
80 today. Another deep low pressure system will move ashore across
British Columbia and track east into Cntl Canada, well north of
Nebraska. Satellite and model data suggests nearly full sun today.

978 mb low pressure will track through Cntl Canada tonight. South
winds develop across Nebraska and this should partially disrupt the
radiational cooling process. Blended guidance plus bias correction
was the basis for lows in the upper 30s and to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

The anomalously warm and dry airmass to remain across the plains
through at least Friday as a broad upper level ridge builds east
from the western conus.  After a weak frontal passage Wednesday,
high temperatures will be well above average to round out the
remainder of the work week, in some cases more than 10-15 degrees
Fahrenheit. The ridge axis will begin to break down to the east on
Thursday, with southwest flow to follow.  The medium range solutions
do show a weak trough moving northeast from the southern Great Basin
across the High Plains late Thursday into early Friday.  Mid and
high level subtropical moisture will work in with the trough as well
as weak QG ascent, but low levels remain dry, so only an increase in
clouds would be expected.  Increasing subsidence on the backside of
the trough and westerly to southwest lower tropospheric flow will
push highs on Friday in the mid 70s to lower 80s, which should prove
to be the warmest day of the extended.  With afternoon temperatures
expected well above average this week, relative humidity will be low
at times. Will have to watch Thursday/Friday afternoon as the upper
ridge will be in the final breakdown stage across the plains.  This
is when winds have the potential to be breezy. At this point the Lee
sfc trough is too far to the west to impact west central Nebraska
with critically low RH, instead of dry downsloping westerly or
southwest lower tropospheric flow, the models are suggesting south
or slight southeast.  Will continue to monitor.

A deep trough moves through early Saturday and will force a strong
front across the forecast area.  A noticeable cooldown is forecast
for Saturday with some potential of light precipitation.  Again,
weak to moderate QG ascent is present, but moisture is lacking for
widespread measurable QPF.  Isolated rain chances mainly target our
west and north late Friday into Saturday.

The system pulls to the northeast Saturday into Sunday with
seasonable temperatures expected for the day on Sunday.  Northwest
flow will follow the exiting trough accompanied by a fairly strong
mid level jet.  Isolated showers would be a possibility Sunday night
into Monday.  Another front pushes across the plains, which will
cool temperatures slightly for early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Quiet aviation weather is expected at both KVTN and KLBF over the
next day. High pressure will result in dry and clear conditions
across the region. The only major concern will be tonight when low
level wind conditions are expected to develop at KVTN. Light winds
this afternoon and overnight will give way to stronger winds on
Wednesday morning. Southerly winds could gust up to 20 knots by
15Z Wednesday.


Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A blend of the warmer temperature guidance and short range model
dew points plus bias correction strongly suggests humidity will
fall to around 10 percent along and west of highway 61 this
afternoon. Winds aloft, at 750mb and below are marginally strong
enough to produce 25 mph wind gusts. Thus, the potential for fire
growth appears elevated but below critical thresholds.




LONG TERM...Jacobs
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