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000
FXUS63 KLBF 281924
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
124 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING ONGOING TO
AROUND 750MB IN SOME AREAS WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AT 19Z WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND THE DEEP MIXING WINDS WERE
STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE BEING
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KMCK. THESE AREAS HAVE OBSERVED FREQUENT SPEEDS OF
30KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KTS. THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON JUST
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...HAVE REACHED
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE MIXING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. MAY BE ABLE TO GET ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO YET THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST FOR THIS...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE VERY NEAR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST TRENDS WITH
DECREASING WINDS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO THINKING A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT IN
THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS