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000
FXUS63 KLBF 290830
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS ALONG A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO ORD. WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
MONTANA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE SEEN ROUNDING THE
WESTERLY RIDGE IN WATER VAPOR. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE
COOL AIR TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED. TRAJECTORY OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WOULD
CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN
REMAIN FAIRLY ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS SEEMED SLIGHTLY
OVER DONE WITH QPF AND PRECIPITATION WHILE NAM HAS HAD A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT FOR THE LAST
TWO DAYS. HAVE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST IN CWA. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CARRIED
SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING RETURNS
AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF THIS FLOW STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE RIDGE INTO COLORADO AND FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COULD
COME A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGHTS CONTINUE THAT THE
MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE PATHS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED THE SOUTHERLY TREND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIPITATION LOCALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PLAY A BIG PART IN HOW WARM THOSE AREAS GET. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SO ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE COOLER HIGHS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 700MB THAT
GETS PULLED ACROSS THE AREA BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
LOOKING TO BE QUITE STEEP AND ASIDE FROM THE DIURNAL LIFT...THERE
IS SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AS THE NAM HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON
THIS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE HESITANT WITH ADDING ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM
AND ARW ARE JUST STARTING TO RUN OUT INTO THIS PERIOD AND BOTH DO
DEVELOP SOME SHORT LIVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AS
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND JUST DON/T KNOW IF THERE IS ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. WILL HOPE THE MODELS START COMING TO MORE
OF A CONSENSUS TO DETERMINE IF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT
IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
WILL STAY THE SAME...IT WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE
ISN/T A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS ON
THIS OCCURRING...AND IF IT DOES...THE PATH OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
AND LIFT MAY BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCH UP BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
COOLING MOST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING UP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SO FOR SUNDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
WITH THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A FOCUS ACROSS WYOMING
AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...FOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST WHICH PUTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
KS...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA- KTIF-KBBW...FROM 09Z-15Z. STILL
EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA AND THIS FCST IS IN JEOPARDY AS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER ERN COLO...ERN WY AND WRN KS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC