Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 262345
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WAS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THIS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN REGION OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS BAND MAY WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIFT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW PRODUCTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING...AND EXPECT
AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15:1 TO 20:1 OR SO THUS FAR...AND EXPECT
THOSE RATIOS TO BE CLOSER TO 20:1 INTO THIS EVENING. SO AS THE
SECOND BAND OF SNOW LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA  WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THIS EVENING...EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL NOT INCREASE ANY THIS EVENING...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SLOWLY DECREASING. SO FORTUNATELY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL NOT
BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...AND
NO PLANS TO CHANGE HEADLINES.

DRIER AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SHOWN TO
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IS SOLID AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....WHICH ALL POINT
TO RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE TO START THE DAY
SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ATOP THE REGION.  BY SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DRAG A ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  LIGHT SNOW IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.  AT THIS POINT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...LESS FURTHER SOUTH.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AND UNDER A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO LOWS.  THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A 1050MB HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
REPRIEVE FROM THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
CUTS OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL PLACE THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SW FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURE WOULD THEN MODERATE SOME...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIOD LOOK TO COME MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT EVEN WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUSLY COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHTS ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.
APPROPRIATE WIND CHILLS HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS EVENING...ENDING IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THROUGH 08Z
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WITH VISBYS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3SM ARE LIKELY.
CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 1200 TO 2500 FT AGL THROUGH THIS TIME. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS AT 25000 FT AGL
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS OF 1500 FT AGL THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 10000 FT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ007>010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB






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