Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 180552
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1252 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures bounce around this week with mild spells on
  Tuesday and Thursday and the cooler conditions being
  tomorrow, Wednesday, and the weekend

- Very dry air in place will result in elevated fire weather tomorrow
  and Tuesday, but the lack of overly gusty winds will keep the
  potential for critical conditions rather low

- Precip chances increase (to around 50%) for next weekend as a
  potentially potent storm system crosses the Great Plains -
  could be rain, snow, or both for western Nebraska

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Nebraska sits between an anomalous upper ridge sitting over the
Pacific Northwest and a trough digging through the Great Lakes,
resulting in nearly meridional flow aloft. A closed upper low also
sits over the Desert Southwest, a piece of the northern stream H3
jet noses into the Sandhills. At the surface, a broad high pressure
centered near the central US/Canada border extends through much of
the Plains and Mississippi Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

This evening and tonight... The surface high drifts south with the
center reaching the Sandhills by early morning. A ribbon of
relatively stronger north/northwest H85 flow cuts across the
forecast area, but environmental conditions in place should allow
for full boundary layer decoupling. With mostly clear skies overhead
and limited moisture upstream, along with light north winds at the
surface, this pattern will support very cool temperatures. Trended
min temps toward the bottom of the NBM envelope, which generally
line up with MAV/MET/ECS guidance. NAEFS and ECM EFI also support
climatologically cool conditions with H85 temps approaching 10%ile
and surface temps registering around -0.6 on the EFI, respectively.
In all, forecast values range from the lower teens in parts of far
northern Nebraska to the upper teens far southwest. While these
values fall well short of daily records, they are around 10 degrees
below normal and will be lower than the past several mornings.

Tomorrow... The surface high continues its southward trek across the
Great Plains, while the Great Lakes upper trough shifts slightly
east. This movement allows the Western US ridge to expand onto the
High Plains a bit more. Low level return flow gradually shifts to
westerly and gains a downslope component, which will aid in
temperature recovery. Warm air advection at H85 is rather stout,
shown by 24 hr temp changes around +8C by 00z. With dry air still in
place and expected mixing to around H8, surface temps should achieve
lower 50s north central to around 60F panhandle. Most guidance also
drops humidity levels to right near critical thresholds in central
Neb (fire zone 209). Despite downslope flow, a relative minimum in
forcing should allow for relaxing speeds at H85-7. Overall, not
expecting red flag conditions and did not issue any fire headline at
this time. After dark, conditions reverse and low/mid level flow
increases quite a bit with H85 speeds nearing 35 kts. Warm air
advection strengthens further with a thermal ridge expanding on the
High Plains, and 24 hr temp changes (as of 06z) approach +20C in the
Sandhills. The combination of gustier winds and much milder air
right off the surface should boost min temps tomorrow night back
toward the freezing mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The remainder of the week features the Western US upper ridge
gradually flattening but refusing to go away completely. Flow aloft
becomes more zonal for Nebraska by Thursday, then southwesterly over
the weekend as a new trough digs along the Pacific Coast. At the
surface, temperatures fluctuate as a couple fronts sweep through the
region. The first front arrives later Tuesday, bringing below normal
temps again for Wednesday, and a stronger front accompanied by upper
level forcing arrives Friday. Toward next weekend, long range
guidance suggests a system getting its act together over the Rocky
Mtns and slowly emerging onto the central(?) High Plains. More
precise timing and location details are yet to be seen, but the
setup paints a wetter and likely cooler picture for western
Nebraska. Newer NBM guidance has increased PoP to around 50% for the
forecast area as the upper trough takes on a neutral to slightly
negative tilt. At this time, thermal profiles suggest daytime rain
or mix and nighttime mix or snow for the forecast area. Should the
current projected storm track not change much and temperatures
remain cold enough, northern Nebraska would have a greater potential
for accumulating snow. WPC has highlighted generally along and north
of Hwy 20 with a 10-30% chance of 2"+ of snow over the weekend. Not
much support is seen with the NAEFS and EFI, however, with generally
no signal or low confidence for anomalous temps and precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions expected with only FEW250 through the TAF
period. Light/variable winds overnight, then winds become west
or southwest near 10KT or less after 15Z through the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Roberg


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