Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170510

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1110 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018
The center of strong surface high pressure will move off to the
southeast of the area tonight. South winds will develop on the
backside of the high, and as a result lows tonight will not be quite
as cold as last night. Nevertheless still expecting temperatures to
dip just below zero in the Platte River valley and portions of
Custer county this evening before temperatures steady out or slowly
rise later tonight. Better mixing across north central Nebraska and
the Sandhills should keep lows in the single digits above zero.

In the upper levels, ridging aloft will be building across the
Rockies. Northwest flow aloft will dominate to the east of the ridge
across our area. Very dry, even in the upper levels, so not even any
high cirrus clouds that we normally see in this type of pattern.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Models in fair agreement with some minor timing differences.
Latest ECMWF slower and wetter. Wednesday evening upper ridge to
the west makes a big push east with a prolonged period of west to
southwest winds through Friday. Still some snow on the ground
which will affect temperatures some what through Thursday. 850mb
temperatures of 4C+ on Wednesday will increase through Friday to
15C+. This will translate from 30s and 40s on Wednesday to the 50s
to near 60 on Friday. The upper trough will approach Friday
sending a Pacific cold front across western Nebraska.
Precipitation over the Pine Ridge Saturday morning around sunrise.
Upper jet will bring a good fetch of Pacific moisture into the
system beginning Friday and the gulf will begin to open up on
Friday night. Progressive system with positive tilt and open wave.
Favorable position for the development of the Colorado low over
northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado. Temperatures on Saturday
now rising into the mid 30s to around 40 so will be a mixture of
precipitation. Have gone with a rain snow mix at the present but
may have to include more ptypes as the system approaches will fine
tune in later forecasts. 700mb low closes off Sunday morning with
a good fgen band setting up over the Sandhills. As upper closed
low tracks through south central Nebraska and shears northeast
into Iowa deformation zone will be main focus with snow band over
eastern portions of forecast area from O`Neill to Broken Bow to
Curtis. This area could shift and right now looks like
accumulating snow across entire forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Quiet aviation conditions will continue over the next 24 hours.
Southwest winds will slowly shift to the west but will remain below
10 knots at both terminals. VFR ceilings with little to no clouds
through Wednesday evening.


Issued at 335 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Dropped flood advisory at Sparks after visual inspection by
Emergency Manager.




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