Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 290448
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z TO 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY MID EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB






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