Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 122045
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY MANAGING AROUND
50 DEGREES. THIS IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL HIGH FOR
TODAY...WHICH IS CLOSER TO 80. ALSO HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH FROST POSSIBLE...
THE OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY TOWARDS MORNING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW COLD
CAN WE GET TONIGHT BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. SKIES SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECT A QUICK BL DECOUPLING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 30S THEN
AS THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY AND COULD EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY. THUS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST WILL LIKELY BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO
5AM...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL LOW SPOTS WHICH MAY NOT SEE THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS. NO CHANGE FOR THE FROST ADV LOCATION AS THIS IS THE AREA
CLOSEST TO THE HIGH AND SHOULD HOLD ON TO NEARLY CALM/NON-SOUTHERLY
WINDS...HOWEVER DID BUMP UP START TIME TO 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LIKELY EARLY FALL OFF OF TEMPS. SIDENOTE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...A STRONG SOLAR STORM COULD RESULT IN NORTHERN LIGHTS
VISIBLE IN THE AREA.

TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN THE MORNING A REBOUND OF
TEMPS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE 60S...AS WE BEGIN
OUR WARM UP. DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 162 HOURS...OR THURSDAY
NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL EAST
TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND  THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH ISOLATED T MENTIONED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ON MONDAY...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTH. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR A RETURN
FLOW...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS THROUGH MIDWEEK...PEAKING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST EACH DAY.

MODEL SPREAD DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE TIMING AND LOCATIONS
OF THE BOUNDARY MAY CHANGE. FOR NOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
LIFTING TO WIDESPREAD VFR THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC TOWARDS SUNSET AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LOCALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW MORNING SKIES CONTINUE TO BE SKC WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS ONCE THE BL BEGINS TO
MIX.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NEZ028-029-038-059-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...MASEK








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