Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200455 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Storm systems will cross the Cntl and Nrn Plains Friday...Monday and
Wednesday. The track of these systems and the ability of the
atmosphere to return moisture north in the wake of each system is
the basis for the rain forecast across Wrn and Ncntl Neb. None of
these systems appear to be active thunderstorm producers across Wrn
and Ncntl Neb.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Pacific high pressure will build in through Wyoming this evening and
move overhead Thursday. Rain cooled outflowed has spawned a deck of
stratus and skies should clear out overnight. Lingering morning
stratus clears out around 15z at Oneill. A blend of guidance plus
bias correction suggested highs in the 60s. Sfc winds should stay up
tonight holding lows in the 30s. A light freeze is expected in the
western Sandhills where winds become light and dew points fall into
the lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

The GFS ensemble and Canadian models have joined camp with the
ECM and GFS tracking the system Friday mostly through WY...COLO
and KS. This leaves the NAM and SREF as the only significant
rainmakers across Swrn Neb. There is still about 100 miles
separating the models but this is normal. Today`s forecast uses a
blended approach and has trended rain chances south and west.

This type of positively tilted system tends to draw dry air quickly
south behind the h700mb trof axis. The NAM and SREF suggest
sufficient moisture will feed through the cold conveyor ahead of the
h700mb trof and given the recent behavior of weather systems
crossing the plains this week...the NAM and SREF can`t be discounted

Another fairly strong system...a closed h700mb low...crosses the Nrn
Plains Monday. Strong south winds develop Sunday across Wrn Neb
ahead of this system but they are dry flowing off the Srn high
plains. The Friday storm system drives a cold front off the the Gulf
coast shunting the precious juice south. So there is just an
isolated rain chance across Ncntl Neb Monday.

A more significant long wave trof will move through the Rockies
Tuesday and affect Nebraska Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. The GFS
is holding moisture south and west of a stalled front while the
warmer ECM suggests moisture will be pulled north into Neb. The GFS
ensemble suggests likely rain chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Western Nebraska will continue to see decreasing clouds over
night with northwest winds continuing around 10kts. Some MVFR cigs
over south central South Dakota may move into the KVTN taf site
but current trend has low stratus just to the east and have left
taf VFR with this in mind. Northwest winds will increase late
morning on Thursday and continue through the afternoon under
mostly sunny skies.


Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Releases from Guernsey Reservoir will cause the North
Platte River at Lewellen to rise this weekend. The water release in
Wyoming is in preparation for the spring snow melt. A portion of
this water could be diverted into canals above Lewellen and if this
occurs then the rise at Lewellen would be lower. Otherwise...the
river could rise to near flood stage early next week.




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