Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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692
FXUS63 KLBF 051138
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
538 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
FEATURE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD TO SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING. UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...RIDGING
EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA...NWD INTO THE YUKON.
THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN
WYOMING...HAS SINCE TRACKED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WAS PRESENT
ACROSS NERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH AROUND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH
OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE SINCE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AS OF 3AM CST...THANKS TO A THICK VEIL OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WILL TRACK EAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO VACATE THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THESE
AREAS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE NERN CWA WITH
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TEENS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE A
BRIEF FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER CORRESPONDING
QPF/S ARE A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THAT BEING SAID...WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST IN THESE AREAS AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
MEASURABLE SNOW IS LOW ATTM BUT MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES. BY AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR IN THE WEST
AND CENTRAL AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MIXING...WE SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S. FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS WHERE IT WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO LOWS IN THE TEENS. OPTED FOR
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY THANKS TO THE LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS AND CONTINUED DEEP SNOW COVER...WHICH IS A GOOD
COLD AIR DRAINAGE SETUP FOR NORTH PLATTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY...BRINGING A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT. THE KEY IS
ALOFT...AND WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP MIXING TO A
MINIMUM. THUS ONLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND 850 MB WINDS GET RACING...50 TO 60
KTS. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO MIX SOME OF THIS TO
THE SURFACE...HOWEVER WITH THE INVERSION EXPECTED FROM THE SNOW
COVER...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE KEPT BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THE SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE CLOSE AND
WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES QUICKLY AS THE TROUGH DIGS TO THE EAST
NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...AND MOS
GUIDANCE TRENDED UP FOR TEMPS FOR THE WEEK. AGAIN SNOW COVER WILL
IMPACT THE SPEED OF WARMING ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT
MELTING. THE NW ZONES...WHERE SNOW PACK IS ONLY A FEW
INCHES...COULD BECOME SNOW FREE AND TEMPS COULD PUSH INTO THE
50S. FOR NOW WILL BE PESSIMISTIC ON TEMPS AND HOLD THE WARM UP TO
THE 40S. SOMETIMES THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WITH THE AMPLIFIED WEST
RIDGE/EAST TROUGH...COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT TEMP RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA. IF THE RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE LATEST
TREND...HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE EASTERN ZONES IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OF 5000 FT
AGL THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH BROKEN CIGS OF 20000 FT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS
TONIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS OF 10000 FT
FOR MOST OF TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BROKEN CIGS OF 5000
FT AGL POSSIBLE FROM 16Z THROUGH 22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS APPG 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BUTTLER



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