Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 160457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1157 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this morning has a longwave
trough of low pressure over the eastern half of the CONUS with a
ridge of high pressure located from the four corners, north into
southern portions of Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. Closed low
pressure was located over northern New York state with high pressure
located over northern Mexico. At the surface, high pressure was
anchored across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi valley. Surface low
pressure was located over nern Montana with a stationary front
extending south into the Nebraska panhandle and far eastern
Colorado. This feature has begun to push east of the panhandle this
afternoon and temperatures have begun to rise into the 60s across
the western sandhills and far southwestern Nebraska. Elsewhere,
temperatures were in the 40s with 50s along the highway 83 corridor.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Tonight through Thursday: In the near term, fire
weather concerns for Thursday, followed by temperatures and the
limited threat for pcpn with a cold front Thursday night/Friday are
the main forecast concerns. For tonight, low pressure will migrate
east into the western Dakotas, forcing a warm front through the
forecast area overnight. Winds will be fairly light and with dry air
in place, even with the warm frontal passage, we should see
temperatures fall quickly into the 30s overnight. On thursday,
surface low pressure will deepen over South Dakota. Westerly winds
and very warm air will flow into western and north central Nebraska
Thursday afternoon. Highs will top out in the 70s to lower 80s. With
forecast dew points in the 20s, minimum relative humidity will fall
off to around 15 percent in the western sandhills and southwestern
Nebraska Thursday afternoon. Am expecting some gusty winds as well
as we should be well mixed above h85. Winds at this level are in the
25 to 30 KT range during peak heating, so winds will be a concern
for critical fire weather conditions as well. Will hoist a red flag
warning for zones 204, 206, 210 and 219 and run it from 11 AM to 7

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Thursday night through Saturday:

Surface low pressure will move into northeastern Nebraska Thursday
evening, forcing a cold front through the forecast area Thursday
night. Attm, not expecting much in the way of precipitation in
association with the front as the strongest mid level lift will be
located post frontal over South Dakota. In addition, the front will
be pushing into a very dry airmass, so if any pcpn does develop
aloft, not much if any, will reach the surface. Highs friday behind
the front will be int the mid 50s to lower 60s, which is still 5 to
10 degrees warmer than climo. High pressure will build into eastern
Nebraska Friday night, then shift southeast Saturday. Gusty
southerly winds will develop Saturday afternoon on the back side of
the high. With good mixing, highs will reach the 60s in the east to
mid 70s in the west.

Saturday night through Wednesday:

Surface low pressure will track across South Dakota on Sunday in a
setup similar to Thursday`s. Gusty westerly winds will develop
Sunday afternoon which will facilitate good mixing. H85 temps will
be in the upper teens to lower 20s C, so highs will reach the 70s to
lower 80s. We may end up needing some sort of fire headline for
Sunday afternoon and will continue to mention it in the HWO. A
strong cold front will track through the area Sunday night with
highs in the 50s on tap for Monday and Tuesday. Better chances for
precipitation will arrive post frontal on Monday night into Tuesday.
Though the main ptype will be liquid, cannot rule out at least a mix
of rain or snow Monday night into early Tuesday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Aviation
concerns remain centered on winds tomorrow. Latest satellite
imagery shows high clouds continuing to stream eastward across
western and north central NEB. Cloud cover will decrease
gradually rest of tonight. Tomorrow winds will increase in the
afternoon with gusts to 30-35 mph expected in western NEB,
elsewhere gusts up to 20-25 mph. Winds will start to diminish late
afternoon/early evening.


Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-210-219.



SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
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