Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170800
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
300 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A midlevel disturbance across the Nrn Plains and Nrn Rockies moves
east today sending a strong Pacific cold front through Western and
North Central Nebraska. H700mb temperatures cool from 12C to around
6C. A blend of the HRRR and RAP models plus bias correction yields
highs in the lower 70s north to mid 80s south.

The mid and upper level moisture in the disturbance is very good but
lapse rates are moist adiabatic. K indices in the RAP increase to
around 40C this afternoon but elevated instability is less than 1000
J/KG suggesting low potential for severe wind gusts which is the
only viable severe weather concern. Winds aloft are very strong this
afternoon with 70kt at 500mb and this produces an elevated bulk wind
shear around 50kt. Overall thunderstorm chances are low but there
should be some concern for gusty winds given the large sfc delta T-
Td.

The midlevel disturbance departs east this evening and rain chances
vanish after 03z. Lows tonight fall into the 40s and 50s with
clearing skies. The temperature forecast uses a blend of guidance
plus bias correction.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A fairly quiet pattern returns on Sunday as high pressure builds
into the region. A building ridge across the western US will keep
high pressure across the Plains through early Wednesday. Warm air
advection into the region from the south will also allow
temperatures to rise from the upper 70s on Sunday into the upper 80s
to mid 90s on Wednesday.

The next chances for precipitation occur on Wednesday and Thursday
evenings. With zonal flow setting up across the central US, these
shortwaves will quickly move out of the region. However, even with
the fast moving nature, thunderstorms could still develop with these
shortwaves and produce a few strong storms across north central
Nebraska. Will have to keep monitoring as it gets closer. High
pressure and dry weather returns for Friday. Temperatures begin to
drop as well for the end of next week. Temperatures on Thursday
continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s before tapering off into the
low to upper 80s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Latest satellite imagery and surface plot shows mid and high-
level clouds streaming across northern NEB and across the southern
Panhandle into far southwest NEB. Ceilings are high-end VFR
(greater than 10 kft). Regional radar display shows light
isolated-scattered showers across northeast/east central WY to
southwest SD. Radar returns have increased in coverage over the
last three hours in this area with most locations reporting a
trace of precip.

Rest of tonight, clouds are expected to increase in coverage
across western NEB. Chances for showers will increase across the
SD-NEB border into the northern Sandhills through the small
hours. Winds will pickup tomorrow and be breezy with peak gusts
generally 25-30 MPH in the afternoon. Slight chances-chances for
showers and thunderstorms then spread southward across the
southern Sandhills on south tomorrow.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...ET



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