Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 242306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
606 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

At 1 p.m. CT a cold front extended from a surface low over
southwest North Dakota through central Nebraska. Surface high
pressure was building into the Nebraska Panhandle and west where
southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts were ushering in
cooler air. East of the front southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph with
rain showers and some thunderstorms moving rapidly north around 50


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Tonight the cold front exits east as the upper low spins and lifts
northeast across the Dakotas. Clouds will decrease in coverage
into the evening. Few clouds then clip the northwest sandhills
overnight as energy from the upper lows moves northeast. Isolated
showers could be seen in parts of Sheridan County otherwise dry.
Models are in good agreement for a further cool down with low
temperatures near normal for this time of year with low
temperatures in the 40s west and ranging up to around 50 in the
north central.

Sunday the upper ridge builds east where northwest winds prevail.
Stronger winds will be seen across the north with surface winds
at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. As the surface and upper ridge
build across dry and cooler. Daytime high temperatures Sunday
mainly in the 60s with readings around 70 southeast of a line from
Imperial to Ansley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Sunday Night through Tuesday: The main challenge in the period
were temperatures and possible non-precipitation weather impacts.
Apart from that, sensible weather concerns were low as no
precipitation is expected while generally light winds (generally
less than 15 mph) and low cloud cover are expected to prevail. A
concern is frost Monday morning given forecast low temperatures.
Best places at this time for patchy frost will be across portions
of the western one-third of the forecast area and near/along the
North and South Platte Valleys. Overnight lows tomorrow night will
be in the low 30s in western NE to mid 30s-low 40s in North
Central NE (where lows will be below normal by as much as 5-10
degrees some places). Warming trend then takes hold across western
and north central NE. Near normal highs Monday will be followed by
highs about 5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday (mid 70s to near

At the beginning of the period a mid level trough will stretch
roughly across the Upper Mississippi Valley to the eastern Central
Plains while a ridge will be positioned over the Pacific Northwest
and Intermountain West. The large scale pattern will be reasonably
active as the 500 hPa trough will move eastward and become a
closed low over the Upper Great Lakes Monday then move to eastern
Ontario by the end of the period. Meantime, the aforementioned
ridge will move east and be near the Central Rockies late Monday
then move gradually into the High Plains by Late Tuesday. Quiet
weather is expected as northwest flow prevails and weak height
rises occur behind the exiting trough the first 24 hours. Neutral
to weak heights rises then occur afterwards. Following Sunday`s
below normal high temperatures, we will see a modest warming
trend begin Monday with increasing high temperatures Monday and
Tuesday. The northwesterly flow seen at 850 hPa becomes more
westerly by Monday afternoon and this continues Tuesday. 850 hPa
temperatures increase to 10-17 C Monday afternoon and this will
be followed by 16-23 C Tuesday. Under this large scale pattern, a
dry air mass will generally be in place over western and north
central Nebraska. Surface high pressure positioned across the High
Plains at the start of the period will move slowly eastward during
the day eventually becoming situated broadly over the Southern and
Central Plains by Tuesday morning. Said high pressure then moves
east and stretches from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the
Southern Plains by late Tuesday.

Favorable conditions come together Monday morning for patchy frost
in some locations. Decent radiational cooling conditions will be
in place as relatively light winds combine with clear skies across
western NE under surface high pressure aloft. Guidance is coming
together and bringing in lows less than 36 degrees across
portions of western NE in the latest MAV, MET, and ECS bulletins.
Lows in the lower 30s are expected across portions of the western
one-third of the forecast area and along the North and South
Platte Valleys. It is anticipated that as cold air settles in
valleys and in climo prone cool spots that at least patchy frost
conditions will be possible. We will continue to watch and
evaluate non-precipitation weather headlines. Otherwise, dry and
quiet conditions will prevail Monday through Tuesday.

Tuesday Night through Saturday: Looking ahead, the mid-level ridge
will continue to influence the sensible weather across the
forecast area as it moves eastward and becomes positioned across
the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valleys by late Thursday.
Beginning late Wednesday, however, confidence in model solutions
starts to decrease some as the deterministic guidance begins to
show more appreciable differences, especially with the handling of
the mid-level trough and its evolution late Wednesday-Friday over
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Otherwise, southwest flow to a
westerly flow is anticipated to prevail aloft beginning Thursday
through Friday. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal
through the end of the work week  about around 80 Wednesday
followed by mid to upper 70s Thursday and Friday. Generally dry
conditions are expected until Friday when slight chances/chances
begin to enter the forecast again.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

a reinforcing cold front will bring increasing winds overnight and
Sunday to western Nebraska. Northwest winds will range from near
28015g25kt at KVTN overnight, then increase further to 31023g32kt
after 14z. At KLBF, northwest wind should remain below 12kt, then
increase after 14z to 32015g25kt. skies will remain clear at KLBF,
while at KVTN a period of bkn050 is forecast from 09z-14z.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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