Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 210847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

High pressure aloft continues to be the dominant feature
across the intermountain west and southwestern CONUS tonight. The
latest H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a 6010 GPM high
over the four corners. H5 hts were highest at Flagstaff and Grand
Junction with 6010 and 6000 GPM respectively. Ridging extended north
of the high to southern Alberta. West of the ridge, a closed low was
noted off the coast of Washington state. East of the ridge, low
pressure was present over Hudson Bay with a trough extending south
into the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure was
present over central Nebraska with low pressure over east central
Colorado. A warm front extended across northern Kansas this morning.
Some elevated convection has developed overnight in eastern Nebraska
in the vicinity of the H7 warm frontal boundary. This activity has
moved just to the east of the forecast area overnight and the
western extent of this line of convection was just east of Wheeler
county. Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from 57 degrees at
Ainsworth to 65 degrees at O`Neill.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

The main forecast challenge today is
temperatures followed by the threat for thunderstorms tonight. High
pressure will track east of the forecast area this morning, allowing
the warm front to lift quickly north into central Nebraska by
midday, then northeastern portions of the forecast area by late
afternoon. South of the warm front, very warm H85 air will push into
western and southwestern Nebraska with H85 temps reaching 33C at
Imperial by 00z this evening. The MET guidance from 00z earlier
tonight has continued to trend higher with its highs for this
afternoon and now has 100 for a high at North Platte today. This
compares to a forecast of 98 from yesterday`s MET forecast. The MAV
guidance remains much cooler with a high of 92 for North Platte
today. Based on its performance with highs yesterday, which were
under forecast by the MAV, decided to trend this afternoon`s highs
more toward the warmer MET guidance. That being said, increased the
high for North Platte to 99 for this afternoon. Imperial`s fcst high
is 102 and Ogallala 101. For tonight, the threat for thunderstorms
is the main forecast concern. By late afternoon/early evening, the
warm front is expected to lie down over far northeastern portions of
the forecast area. SB CAPE will reach well over 4000 J/KG INVOF the
front later this afternoon. However, there will be a real strong cap
in place which should inhibit convective development this afternoon.
However, if this cap can break, explosive convective development
appears possible. ATTM the capping inversion appears weakest off to
the north of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. That
being said, a dry forecast will remain in place for this afternoon
into the early evening hours. The threat for isolated thunderstorms
will increase overnight as convection over western and central South
Dakota tracks to the east southeast into southeastern South Dakota
and northeastern Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

A shortwave tracks across southern Canada Wednesday, and drives
a cold front south across the area into Kansas. 850 MB temps cool
several degrees in the wake of the front, and highs lower to mid
80s are expected across the region. Also the airmass is fairly dry
behind the front, with comfortable dew points in he mid 40s to mid
50s from west to east across the forecast area.

The front returns north as a warm front Thursday, with very warm
temperatures expected again by Friday as the front moves well
north into the Dakotas. 850 MB temperatures approaching 30C will
support highs well into the 90s. The GFS and ECMWF are in good
agreement with the timing of another cold front crossing the
region Friday night. Decent instability ahead of the front, but a
very stout cap will remain in place. Will not go more than a
slight chance for convection with the frontal passage due to such
a strong capping inversion. Cooler conditions behind the front for
the weekend into the first of next week, with highs generally in
the 80s.


Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

The river statement for the South Platte river at North
Platte and Roscoe was cancelled earlier this evening as river levels
have fallen below action stage. Elevated river levels continue along
the main stem of the Platte river at Brady and are expected to fall
below action stage by the end of the week. Along the North Platte
river at Lewellen and North Platte, minor flooding is forecast and
is expected to continue at least through the end of the week. The
latest stages along the North Platte river at Lewellen and North
Platte were 7.8 and 6.5 feet respectively.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
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