Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 202025
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
325 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

All models have shifted the storm track toward the wrn solns shown
by previous runs of the GFS and ECM. Thus measurable rainfall will
likely be along and west of a line from KAIA-KLBF-KLXN with amounts
increasing west. Dry air being drawn in from the east could shift
the rain line even farther west and the 18z RAP suggests the good
rain could be as far west as the Front Range in COLO. The series of
storms earlier this week appears to have taken a toll on moisture.
The shift west will delay the onset of rainfall across Southwest
Nebraska until late tonight and Friday morning.

Highs Friday remain in the 50s and widespread cloud cover is
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Pacific high pressure moves overhead Saturday and another storm
system will enter the Nrn High plains Sunday. The models continue to
advertise a dry south wind Sunday increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the
afternoon. A fairly strong cold front will move off the Texas coast
and shut down moisture return.

Another Pacific cold front sweeps through Nebraska Monday. Modest
moisture return develops and rain chances are in the forecast
Tuesday through Thursday.

This morning`s run of the ECM...GFS...GEF and GEM models suggests a
series of disturbances will move through the Cntl Plains. This is a
favorable pattern for rain given that a stationary front should set
up on the cntl High plains which would draw moisture west for
thunderstorm initiation. The forecast is for showers with highs in
the 50s and 60s. The GFS and ECM suggest lapse rates could steepen
sufficiently across Wrn Neb for thunderstorms and later forecasts
will address this feature.

The WPC rainfall forecast has responded by wetting the region with a
1/2 to 3/4 of an inch of rainfall and the CPC has outlooked parts of
Neb for heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. The CPC outlook
suggests locally higher rainfall amounts could develop. POPs have
been limited to 30 to 50 percent given the uncertainty of the storm
tracks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

VFR is generally expected all areas this afternoon and tonight.
There is a slight chance that MVFR cigs will develop west of
highway 61...09z-12 Friday morning.

A storm system currently affecting the Nwrn U.S. will move into
Wrn Nebraska late tonight and Friday morning. Per the 09z SREF
model...MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys in -RA are expected to develop
12z-18z Friday along and west of a line from KCDR-KLBF-KLXN. IFR
flight conditions become more likely along and west of a line from
KAIA-KOGA-KIML.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC


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