Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 250451
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1151 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AT H5 IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN IN IR. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
SURFACE FRONT FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. HUDSON BAY LOW
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. GULF OF ALASKA LOW EXTENDING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

CENTER OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IS NEAR THE WY/NE
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TEMPORARILY WITHIN THE CYCLONE DRY SLOT...BUT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE COMBINING WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE WILL PUSH EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM...WILL SWITCH TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY...AS HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LINGERS FROM
6000 TO 12000 FEET AGL. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH
NEAR 70 DEGREES. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH MID TERM SOLUTIONS MAINLY
TUESDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW HAVE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. NOT TO QUICK TO JUMP ON THIS AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A HUGE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER. 850MB TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD IN THE MID AND
EXTENDED FORECAST.

CONTINUED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AS
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIKE THE SYSTEM TODAY IT IS
TAKING A TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES. UPPER JET
DYNAMICS RIGHT REAR QUADRANT...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LLJ. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY HAVE
KEPT FORECAST CONSISTENT. DRY LINE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEM
TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS DEEPENS AND RIDGE SHARPENS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
CONTINUED MENTION OF RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BUT COLD AIR LACKING AND FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE
MODIFIED. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE NEB/S
DAKOTA BORDER. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISH WITH THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WRAPPING WELL NORTH OF THE LOW. THE DRY SLOT HAS CAUSED
NEARLY ALL OF THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA GENERALLY TO SEE MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY SOME MVFR CIGS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL S DAKOTA AS THEY TRY TO WRAP SOUTH ACROSS
THE BORDER...AND COULD IMPACT THE KVTN TERMINAL TOWARDS MORNING.
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO PUT IN
THE PREVAILING YET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE AS WE COME FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 24.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK



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