Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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627
FXUS63 KLBF 160542 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1142 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Going forecast is currently on track for the rest of the evening and
into Monday. A strong low pressure system continues to build across
the southern Plains Sunday evening. This will result in north
central Nebraska remaining on the northern edge of this system until
Monday when the system begins to track northeastward. For the
remainder of the afternoon and evening, freezing rain will continue
across much of the forecast area. Previous observations from this
afternoon have indicated that while total accumulations of ice will
be low, the freezing rain will cause a quick glaze on area roadways
resulting in hazardous conditions. Caution should be used if travel
is necessary tonight.

Precipitation will slowly transition over to all snow after midnight
as colder air filters in behind the system. The added snow on top of
icy roadways will add an additional hazard for travelers. Not only
will snow cause difficulties by itself, but light snow accumulation
will make it difficult for drivers to see any previous icy roadways
from the evening.

As the system continues to move into the central Plains on Monday,
snow will continue much of the day. Model trends have been pushing
the system further to the east which will significantly cut down on
snow totals. Have lowered total accumulations across the forecast
area. Current expectations will be under 2 inches (mainly south of I-
80), but even this is probably a little too high. Will keep the
winter storm warning going for now, however, it could very easily be
downgraded to a winter weather advisory later if the system track
continues to trend eastward and precipitation totals decrease even
more. High temperatures will rise into the low 30s. Temperatures
will add another challenge to the forecast for Monday. As surface
temperatures rise, there`s another slight chance for precipitation
to change over to freezing rain/sleet/wintry mix during the day. For
now, have kept precipitation as all snow, but this will have to be
something to look at in previous forecast shifts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The blocking arctic high pressure and attendant ice storm move
off east Monday night. A rapid warm-up will follow Tuesday through
Thursday. The models are in good agreement that h850mb
temperatures will rise to around 10C Wednesday and remain warm
Thursday. This is the result of rising heights aloft across the
Cntl Rockies as another storm moves through the Srn Plains and
lifts into the midwest.

There is a PV1.5 anomaly moving through Monday night which should
clear skies and the clearing could hold through Thursday with mostly
clear skies. There is a chance high clouds could build in off the
Big Horns but the GFS model suggests these would be thin as a result
of subsidence from the northeast quadrant of the building upper
level ridge.

The models then track a second storm through the four-corners region
Friday which could affect Western and North Central Nebraska late
Friday and Saturday. This could draw a weak push of arctic air and
the GFS indicated an area rain and freezing rain changing to snow.
Until it is certain the arctic air will be in place for freezing
rain...the weather type Friday night and Saturday is rain changing
to snow with best chance...around 30 percent...east of highway 83.

Lastly...a third storm system is forecast to dive through the
Southwest U.S. and plow into Texas next Sunday. This system and the
previous system lifting through the Midwest should be sufficient to
pull a cold front through the region. The model consensus shows
h850mb temperatures falling back to around 0C Friday through Sunday.

Bias corrected temperature data was close to the model consensus or
superblend suggesting good confidence in temperatures rising through
the 30s and 40s Tuesday to the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Blended
model data plus bias correction suggested highs in the 30s and 40s
Friday through Sunday. The same strategy suggests lows in the teens
and 20s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Band of widespread light freezing rain will continue north of
interstate 80 through the early morning hours. Leading edge from
KAIA to KTIF is moving north into much drier air and have only
included VCSH for KVTN taf. KLBF is on the backside with areas of
freezing rain becoming less organized. Have use a tempo group for
lingering fzra. Low clouds stratus ifr cigs and possibly some mvfr
visbys through the early morning before snow beginning at klbf
through 15z-23z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday for
NEZ007>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power



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