Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 202339 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
639 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Quiet conditions continue through most of Wednesday as weak mid-
level ridging settles in across the midwest. Increasing clouds
overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday will be the trend as the
next system moves into the region. Increased moisture across the
northwestern counties (mainly northern Sheridan and western
Cherry counties) will result in the potential of some light fog
and drizzle Wednesday morning. Not expecting the fog to be dense
and it should burn off by late morning. Showers and thunderstorms
move into the eastern portion of the forecast area late
Wednesday. Current thinking is that development will be after 4pm
and mainly centered east of the forecast area. Have lowered high
temperatures for Wednesday a few degrees as cloud cover will
inhibit some of the diurnal heating we see during the day. Expect
highs to range from the mid 70s across the northwest to the mid
80s across the southeast portion of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Southwest flow aloft with the upper level ridge sliding east over
the gulf coast to the mid Atlantic state to start the long term
period. Pacific moisture continues to get drawn across the
Rockies while southerly sfc winds bring up some gulf moisture
ahead of a cold front. Models increase pwats to an inch to 1.5
inches across central Nebraska. A short wave is expected to lift
across the region within the southwest flow. The models track the
wave across the heart of Nebraska then round it to the east
towards the Great Lakes. At the sfc the location of the cold
front will be key to thunderstorm activity early wed night. The
latest models keep the front across the cwa when storms are
expected to fire, thus will keep chance pops in the eastern
zones. CAPE is good with 2000+ j/kg and shear is marginal across
eastern border and SPC includes this area in a marginal risk for
severe weather. Could also see a narrow band of activity along
the front, although confidence is low.

Cold front will stall to the southeast which halts the push of
cold air. Highs on Thurs will be cool across the north with lower
to mid 70s, however closer to the boundary across the south will
see highs closer to 80. Meanwhile an upper level trough will dig
across the western CONUS.

Models close off the trough Thursday night with the closed low
slowly lifted towards the central Rockies into the weekend. A
strong cold front will push across the area Fri night. Ahead of
the front a surge back into the 80s for Friday. Frontal passage
will bring a chance for storms with highs in the upper 60s and
70s behind the front.

Upper level low opens back up as it pushes across the northern
plains Sunday and Monday. Some model differences on how fast the
low opens up and moves across the plains. This leads to a very
low confidence end of long term forecast.

As for low temperatures through the long term. Initial very mild
until the cold front passage Friday night then falling closer to
seasonal averages in the low 40s to low 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Increasing high clouds across western Nebraska overnight with
light and variable winds. Low level wind shear is expected at KLBF
into early morning with an 850mb southerly jet and light winds at
the surface. Surface boundary across South Dakota will drift into
northern Nebraska towards sunrise and there is the possibility of
some stratus to the north side of the front. Have left out of KVTN
taf for now with uncertainty of front shifting south.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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