Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 251205 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
705 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

...Updated Aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Another cool day with mainly dry conditions expected with the best
chances for precipitation outside the forecast area (to our west and
southeast). Overall, the latest analysis and model guidance continue
to support spirit of the going forecast today and tonight. A mid-
level trough is positioned across the Northern Plains at the start
of the period while a broad 500 hPa high remains over the southeast
CONUS, Tennessee Valley, and Lower Mississippi Valley. The upper
trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes today with weak height
rises occurring over western and north central NE under modest
westerly 500 hPa flow, around 25-30 kts. At lower-levels, low-level
isentropic lift will be occurring over southeast WY and portions of
the NE Panhandle today. Surface high pressure will move into and
stretch across the eastern Northern and Central Plains to lower
Missouri Valley. Best moisture will be to the south and east of the
forecast area, with precipitable water around 0.75 in western NE
and 850 dew points around 6-8 C across western and north central NE
with moderate dew point depressions at low-levels. While
conditions are expected to be predominantly dry, slight chance
PoPs were placed in portions of our far west forecast area given
location of zone of thermal advection and anticipated motion. Low
confidence at this time given amount of moisture available and
the location of best uplift and forcing. Otherwise, below-normal
high temperatures are expected with a cool air mass in place,
generally 5-10 degrees below normal, with cooler temperatures
across the northwest-third of the forecast area.

Conditions are expected to be dry tonight. A mid-level trough will
move into the northern Rockies and norther Plains during the tonight
period with a short wave trough expected to then track into the area
early morning Friday. At this time, best large scale ascent will be
occurring more so near the end and after the Tonight period. Have
increased chances for precipitation in the far western and far
southern portions of the forecast area after midnight, however,
think the best chances will occur after 12 UTC.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

An active end to the week is possible across central Nebraska. An
upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Friday
bringing a return to rain and thunderstorms to the area. Rain will
move southward across the forecast area, starting first across the
Nebraska/South Dakota border on Friday morning and slowly moving
southward throughout the day. Storms are expected to reach the
Imperial to North Platte to O`Neill line by late afternoon/early
evening. While the severe threat is low, an isolated strong to
severe storm cannot be ruled out especially in the afternoon hours
as instability across the region peaks. Main threat will be small
hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall.

Lingering rain showers/thunderstorms are possible through Saturday
afternoon as the trough slowly moves eastward. High pressure returns
for Saturday night and lasts through the beginning of next week.
This high will keep any shower/thunderstorm activity to our south
resulting in dry and calm conditions to prevail across western

Temperatures remain on the cooler side for Friday with highs only in
the low to mid-70s. Temperatures begin to rise once again for the
weekend and into next week. Temperatures rise into the low 80s on
Saturday and then hold steady in the mid to upper 80s for Sunday
through Wednesday. Lows steadily rise from the low to mid 50s on
Friday night eventually reaching the upper 50s to low 60s by Tuesday


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Radar echoes on KLNX and neighboring radars depict isolated-
scattered showers moving ENE across east central WY, southwest
SD, and the extreme northern portion of the NE Panhandle. These
showers are associated with mainly low-end VFR ceilings, though a
few sites are reporting MVFR. Some of these lower clouds are
moving through the northwest quad of the forecast area this
morning. Otherwise, most of western and north central NE are
under high clouds. Mainly dry conditions are expected today.

Increased chances for showers across the extreme western and
southern portion of the forecast area after midnight. There is
some concern for fog across portions of central NE early Fri
morning, possibly impacting KLBF. However, not enough confidence
to place in the KLBF TAF at this time. Looking ahead, wet
conditions expected Fri and Fri night with dry conditions
anticipated from Saturday Night through Tuesday.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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