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000
FXUS63 KLBF 051136
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
536 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE CONUS TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AS
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST WV IMAGERY. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED IN THE H5 FLOW TONIGHT WITH DISTURBANCES LOCATED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS...NERN WASHINGTON STATE AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WYOMING AND NERN COLORADO. THE DISTURBANCE JUST OFF TO THE
WEST...AS LED TO RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NERN COLORADO...FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA AND NWRN KS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...2 AM CST TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 16 AT
VALENTINE...TO 33 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR
TODAY...ARCTIC AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
83...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
HIGHS TODAY...PARTICULARLY THE MET GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO COOL WITH
HIGHS TODAY OF 32 FOR NORTH PLATTE. THE MAV IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AT
37. BOTH GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE A COOL BIAS AS THEY SEEM TO BE
OVERESTIMATING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR FCST HIGHS
TODAY...UTILIZED H85 TEMPS...WHICH LED TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
IN THE EAST...TO AROUND 40 FOR NORTH PLATTE...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN
THE FAR WEST. FOR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A
RESULT OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGES OF
EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
20 IN THE EAST...TO THE MID 20S IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

A TYPICAL SPRING TIME ROLLER COASTER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG
TERM. RIDGING AND WARM AIR TO SURGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
NAM IS SLOW TO LOSE THE SNOW PACK...AND HOLDS TEMPS LOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. AFTER SEEING THE ABILITY TO WARM ACROSS
SNOW FREE OR LITTLE SNOW COVER YESTERDAY...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO
THE WARMER GUIDANCE...LOWER TO MID 60S. DID STILL SEE A COOLING
EFFECT OF THE SNOW...AND DID LOWER A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK ACROSS N
CENTRAL WHERE HIGHS WERE HELD BELOW 50.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS 10C TO 15C THURSDAY DROP BELOW 0C BEHIND
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM AND QPF
AMOUNTS ARE MINIMAL...ONLY THE OFTEN WET GFS ACCUMULATES MORE THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE AN IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM DUE TO PRECIP TYPE. TEMPS INITIALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN...THEN AS THE COLD AIR UNDERCUTS A MIX BAG IS EXPECTED.
TEMPS NEARING THE FREEZING MARK AND HAVE INCLUDED SLEET AS THE BL
LAYER DEPTH INCREASES..ALTHOUGH IT COULD BRIEFLY BE FREEZING RAIN
AND WILL MONITOR. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPS LIKELY TO PEAK
IN THE MORNING THEN FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON. COLUMN COOLS BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S...TEMPS
SLOWLY REBOUND FOR SATURDAY AS MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLE COULD SEE A
FEW 50S. THEN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
ANOTHER WARMUP. 850 MB TEMPS SOAR BACK TO 10C TO 15C LATE SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE RETURNS HIGHS INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES MAKE FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS FOR MONDAY. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
WILL AIDE IN MIXING WARM AIR TO THE SFC AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE
NOT TO FAR FROM SUNDAY HIGHS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPS. MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS NO CHANGE TO THE
ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM
13Z THROUGH 16Z WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
FROM 12Z THROUGH 16Z WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 2SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS
500 FT AGL. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT UNDER 10 KTS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB