Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 242104
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
404 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE STORM
CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TODAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.  LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES
STRONG INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY /GENERALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA/.  THE MODEL TREND INDICATES THE
REMAINING CIN ERODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
40KTS OR SO WILL LEAD ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
INITIALLY. THE LATEST 18Z NAM GENERATES UPSCALE GROWTH OF A
MCS...AIDED BY INCREASING PWATS AND A H85 LLJ THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS RISING IN EXCESS OF 1.75"
THIS EVENING AT KLBF...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT IF THE SOLUTION VERIFIES...WHICH AS IT SITS NOW WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS NW COLORADO/SW NEB...THE SOLUTION IS LOOKING GOOD.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE REMAINS QUESTIONS
AS TO HOW THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESPOND TO THE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...LEADING TO STRONG TROPOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY.  BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.  STORM
MOTIONS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND WITH PWATS HOVERING NEAR A
GENERAL 1.75"...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO CLEAR EARLY.  HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S APPEAR
LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF FA. DUE
TO FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SWRLY ALOFT ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NW. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND
SCTRL NEBR OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCE TRACK NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE FA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. A RETURN OF MOISTURE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 92 TO 97 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...COOLING TO THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REVOLVES AROUND THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL. STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE
LATEST AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM12
SOLUTION HAVE LARGELY PICKED UP ON THIS...AND THUS USED FOR THE
FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
SUGGESTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS HIGHEST
CENTERED ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS



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