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000
FXUS63 KLBF 041002
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

A MESSY MORNING IS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SHERIDAN...CHERRY...KEYA PAHA AND BROWN COUNTIES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS OF MIDNIGHT WERE AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES AT
VALENTINE. RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR...IS INDICATING THE
BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
CHERRY COUNTY. SO...AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE...SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY
LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. ALOFT...UA ANALYSIS FROM
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...WITH
SHORTWAVES NOTED OVER ERN OREGON...AND OVER NRN CALIFORNIA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN. BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND NORTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 AT
VALENTINE...TO 19 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...DEAL WITH SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY...THEN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT THE LATEST NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOLUTIONS...MID LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MID
DAY...AND THIS AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIFT
WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE JET STREAM. WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. INHERITED FORECAST HAS A WINTER STORM WARNING
IN EFFECT FOR CHERRY...SHERIDAN...KEYA PAHA AND BROWN COUNTIES
THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING. THE HEADLINES WILL BE EVALUATED NEAR
EXPIRATION TIME AND A DECISION WILL BE MADE TO EITHER EXTEND THE
WINTER STORM WARNING OR SWITCH IT OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THIS MORNING...FEEL AT LEAST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED HERE...AS LIGHT SNOW AND SOME BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR
QPF OUTPUT FOR TDY...WHICH IS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. UTILIZING A 15 TO 1 RATIO OF SNOW TO WATER AS A FIRST
GUESS...AROUND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE TODAY
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN THE
FCST AS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND SOUTH AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME LIMITED CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS SOME DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME CLEARING AND
FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND
NORTH. READINGS MAY REACH 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ADD IN THE WIND...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 30 BELOW BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROBABLY NECESSITATE SOME SORT OF WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW GIVEN THE
ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA
AND LET THE DAY SHIFT ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE CENTER REACHING
THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ONLY SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
NOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THANKS TO A 4 TO 9 INCH DEEP SNOW PACK. LOWS AS COLD AS 15 BELOW
MAY BE EXPERIENCED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS DECREASE AND SKIES
CLEAR. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE LITTLE SNOW COVER EXISTS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE. ALL AREAS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ONLY BY A FEW
DEGREES.

SNOW POTENTIAL ENTERS THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MUCH LIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS ONE TOO WILL BE A
FORECAST CHALLENGE. A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN
CANADA...ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. QUESTIONS THEN ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM DIGS. THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ECMWF DIGS AND
CLOSES THE UPPER SYSTEM NEAR LAS VEGAS SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVES THE
SYSTEM EAST NORTHEAST REACHING OUR AREA SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY JUST LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP REMAINING MORE
CLOSED AND STRONGER...HEAVIER SNOW COULD MATERIALIZE. THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

SNOW HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT KVTN...PREVAILING VSBY OF 1SM EXPECTED UNTIL
07Z...IMPROVING TO 3SM. MVFR CEILINGS TO ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL 00Z
THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ALSO AT KLBF NEAR OVC020-OVC025...ALSO
FORECAST TO BECOME VFR BY 00Z THURSDAY. WINDS 33015G25KT AS WELL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NEZ004>006-008-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NEZ007-009-010-023-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG