


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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235 FXUS63 KLBF 271944 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 244 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening, with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) in place for much of the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. - Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible Saturday afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) is in place along the HWY 20 corridor. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. - The combination of temperatures in the 90s and humid conditions will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 The primary concern for the short term will revolve around the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Currently, scattered thunderstorm development is underway across portions of the southern Panhandle, from near Bridgeport to north of Pine Bluffs. This is behind a surface dryline within a well mixed environment, which is located near the HWY 61 corridor. Further east, a diffuse surface warm front bisects the Sandhills from northwest to southeast. An outflow boundary from earlier convection is located from near Valentine to Ainsworth to near Chambers. Between these two boundaries, a narrow corridor of much richer Theta- E is evident in surface observations, with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. This presents a rather complex evolution in thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Confidence is currently highest in the high- based convection impacting western and southwest Nebraska this evening. Strong outflow winds will be the main hazard with this convection, as storms interact with the well mixed environment across western Nebraska. As these storms encounter the richer moisture to the east, some strengthening is possible as they cross HWY 61. Deep layer shear looks ample for updraft organization, especially as a southerly LLJ strengthens by late evening. This should also lead to upscale growth, with a combination of the storms reaching the richer moisture and the increasing low level jet. At least a broken line of storms should reach the HWY 83 corridor by late evening, gradually weakening after sunset as surface based CIN increases. It is within this window where some instances of 60 to 70mph winds will be possible. A second, and much less certain, threat may evolve from the outflow boundary, draped across north central Nebraska from earlier convection. Though not immediately obvious, should storms form along this boundary, all modes of severe weather would be possible across north central Nebraska. A supercellular storm mode would be most probable, with large hail and damaging winds possible. With the presence of a boundary, and backed surface winds, a tornado or two could not be ruled out with any supercells that can form. Storm formation remains very uncertain, and mesoscale features will need to be monitored very closely over the next several hours. Storms wane tonight, with dry conditions expected to prevail into tomorrow morning. Broad, and strong, moisture advection tomorrow morning will boost dewpoints back into the upper 60s to lower 70s, for areas along and east of HWY 83. A dryline will again be positioned across portion of the Panhandle. East of HWY 83, as temperatures climb into the 90s tomorrow, the combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. This could lead to heat illnesses in sensitive groups, and precautions should be taken tomorrow if outdoor activities are planned. By late afternoon, another round of thunderstorms will develop in the Panhandle, moving east into the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. A rather similar thinking for today is in place for tomorrow. Damaging winds look to be the main threat as storms move east, as they encounter a more moist environment and grow upscale. Any lingering boundaries from tonight`s activity may again lead to mesoscale development further east, though confidence in this is very low at best. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 The active weather regime continues into next week, as broad zonal flow persist aloft. This will allow for more than a few shortwaves to traverse the northern Plains through the week. The location of surface boundaries will drive the location and coverage of thunderstorms locally, but at least some threat of storms looks to exist nearly each day. Any threat for severe weather remains uncertain for now, though will need to be monitored closely. Temperatures look to remain near average, and heat concerns look to remain limited through much of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. This afternoon, scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the western Sandhills, moving east this evening. Brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds can be expected with any thunderstorms this evening. Storms are then expected to wane into tonight. Winds remain gusty from the south-southeast this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25kts expected. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Brown