Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 140008 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
608 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

The primary forecast concerns through Tuesday afternoon are fog
potential overnight and high temperatures. With a surface high
pressure over the Great Lakes and a lee side low developing in
eastern CO, southerly low level flow continues to pull moisture up
the High Plains. Dew points reached the lower 40s today from OGA to
ANW and points east and mid 40s in NW KS. Model guidance keeps dew
points in the mid/upper 30s overnight as temps drop to the same
level. Weak isentropic upglide at 295K over eastern Neb. hints at
stratus once again, which as of 21z today, it slowly eroded from the
panhandle to MCK-BBW-ONL. Forecast soundings suggest little to no
lift near the sfc, which could point towards a rather wide expanse
of fog. Brief, locally dense fog will be possible along the western
edge of the stratus (most likely near MCK-BBW-ONL). Sfc winds
transition to westerly early/mid morning to be in tune with
downsloping west winds at H85, which should limit expansion into the
panhandle. Trended max temps up in the west due to downslope flow, a
15C thermal ridge, and decent mixing. Pushed highs down slightly
where stratus and fog will hold on the longest, generally along the
GID and OAX borders. A cold front approaches NW Neb. late afternoon,
after max diurnal heating. Highs in the upper 60s shouldn`t be a
problem as SNY and IBM reached 70F Monday. Temps may be underdone in
the southern panhandle and near IML, where MAV guidance suggests
lower/mid 70s. That would be around 5 degrees shy of the record.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

A weak cold front will move through the area Tuesday night. Weak
upper ridging on Wednesday in advance of an upper trough pushing
through the Pacific Northwest. Light winds on the backside of the
surface high with cooler H85 temps from 2-7C, and highs in the mid
50s.

An upper trough will begin to advance east from the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday. A fairly tight surface pressure gradient
will exist across the region, with southerly winds from 15 to 30
mph. Loaded in the stronger consmos for winds. Highs to reach the
mid 50s east to around 60 west.

The upper trough and cold front will arrive early on Friday with
ample pacific moisture moving into the area. Timing differences
between the GFS and ECMWF create low confidence on timing of the
front and how long the precipitation lasts. The slower EC keeps
rain chances into Friday evening across our southeast. There will
be a chance of rain, possibly mixing with snow, but any
precipitation will be light from a trace up to a tenth of an inch
in total. The wind strengthen behind the front on Friday, to 20
to 30 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the western Sandhills. Again,
used the stronger consmos output for winds.

The GFS and ECMWF both indicate northwest flow on Saturday
transitioning to upper ridging Sunday into Monday. Highs coolest
on Saturday from 45 to 50, warming into the lower to mid 50s
Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Next system rounding the ridge to the west will move into western
Nebraska over night. Stratus to the east will shift back to the
west late this evening but should stall out from KONL to KBBW to
KLBF. Have a tempo group to cover the anticipated fog but not a
lot of confidence.



&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez



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