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000
FXUS63 KLBF 230901
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH 6000 METER HTS NOTED
AT GRAND JUNCTION COLORADO. RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. THIS FEATURE WAS
IMPACTING MOST OF THE LOWER 48 TONIGHT. ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A
SECOND LOW WAS NOTED OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD
TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF NEBRASKA TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EASTERLY AND SERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS HAS PUSHED UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEW POINTS INTO THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES HAVE ROTATED AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK
OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TONIGHT AND HAVE LED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EARLIER THIS EVENING...STORMS HAVE REMAINED SUB
SEVERE IN NATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING FOR
INCLUSION IN THE MORNING PACKAGE. AS IT STANDS
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SRLY AND
SERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL FORCE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. A NICE MOISTURE TONGUE PUSHES
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB
CAPES REACHING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ALONG THE HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SOLN IS INDICATIVE OF CAPPING
INITIALLY...HOWEVER THIS BEGINS TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MOISTURE TONGUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM WE COULD SEE
SOME INITIATION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL
BE CO LOCATED WITH THE HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS. ATTM...LARGE HAIL
SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE 1000+J/KG CAPES IN THE -10
TO -30C LEVEL. ACTIVITY IN THE WEST...SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE OFF
LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ABUNDANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT OVERNIGHT PER -8 TO -10 H800 COMPUTED LI`S AND BULK SHEAR
OF 35 TO 40 KTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG STORMS LATE TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERMAL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AS 850 TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND 30
C. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IS AROUND THE CENTURY
MARK. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG AND WEST
OF 83...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HITTING TRIPLE DIGITS. MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WILL HELP TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS...THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARMER AIR TO THE WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME
CONCERNS ABOUT MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...THEN THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH THINGS ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...SEASONAL. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE THE CREST
OF THE RIDGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TO THE WEST...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD SEE A TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS MEAGER. WILL HAVE PERIODIC SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY ONE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP TO DRAW SOME CANADIAN
AIR SOUTHWARD. 850 MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20C. MOS
GUIDANCES HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INTO THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS AROUND 60 TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER
12Z...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AROUND 9000 FT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB