Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 260432

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1132 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

At H5 there is a closed low moving into south central Canada with a
trough into the California coast. Ridging from northern Mexico into
Northern Minnesota with another closed low Over Indiana and a deep
trough into the Gulf Coast of Florida. Strong surface cold front off
the east coast.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Severe thunderstorms watch for southern 3 counties through 10 pm

Cool front from Ainsworth to Ogallala this afternoon with dryline
further south into southwest Kansas.

Looking at the radar mosiac thunderstorms developing along the front
range already and moving quickly onto the plains. Things could get
going early this afternoon. HRR and NAM have development beginning
around 21z. Time tool around 2130z. These storms continue to the
south of the cool frontal boundary. With 3 hr pressure falls around
2mb looks like the front is still moving south and may shunt
convection away from the higher terrain. Limited low level moisture
have kept things fairly high based this afternoon Stronger wave
to move out of Wyoming this evening. 100kt jet with minimal low
level jet will help to move wave across forecast area quickly
tonight with most convection through 3z and ending after 6z. Low
level jet minimal early on tonight. Lows tonight slightly cooler
than last and have gone on colder side of guidance. Clearing skies
Friday with upslope flow developing as next wave moves out of the
west across western Nebraska. Highs slightly cooler around 70.
Destabilizing through the afternoon with convection developing.
Outlooked again and seems reasonable with maybe somewhat later
show. Went with increased pops and qpf.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Cooler with highs in the 60s on Saturday and may have to be
lowered with rain ending but still cloudy and cool with cold air
advection. Cooler through the weekend and the first part of the
week and mainly dry through Tuesday. Off again and on again
showers or thunderstorms not widespread through the end of the
week in fast northwest flow with temperatures rebounding from the
60s the first part of the week into the 70s Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Latest radar imagery shows scattered showers moving east across
the southern Sandhills with some isolated shower development
farther south over Lincoln county. Latest surface plot shows
mostly mid-level clouds with ceilings generally near or greater
than 9 kft. Conditions are expected to be quiet across western NEB
rest of tonight once the present activity moves into central NEB.
Clearing skies are anticipated in the early morning with clouds
increasing then mid-late afternoon. Attention turns to tomorrow
wherein showers and thunderstorms will be possible. The best
chances for thunderstorms will be over western NEB tomorrow
evening. Otherwise, showers are expected to affect most locations
tomorrow night. Low-end VFR ceilings are expected tomorrow
evening (less than 7 kft) across much of western NEB. Ceilings
are then expected to further deteriorate to sub-VFR late tomorrow
night in far southwest and far western NEB.


Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

South Platte river on a slow fall with all gages below action

North Platte river still at action stage at Lewellen and will likely
be there for a while as releases from Wyoming continue. Releases
below Kingsley have been reduced and North Platte river remains
below action stage through the confluence.




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