Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 290445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Updated forecast to account for ongoing precipitation that remains


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Current radar imagery is showing some light rain
showers/thunderstorms moving into Sheridan county. Current
thinking is that these showers/thunderstorms will begin to fall
apart as they more southeastward and are not anticipated to become
severe. Will keep an eye on them, though, as they move into warmer
and slightly more humid air over the next couple hours. Otherwise,
rain showers across Boyd and Holt counties will continue to slowly
move eastward and come to an end as drier air filters into the
region. Scattered cumulus clouds will be the main story across the
sandhills and I-80 corridor with conditions remaining dry through
evening before clouds dissipate after sunset. Overnight low
temperatures drop into the low 50s across the entire CWA.

Sunday will begin dry and pleasant with high temperatures eventually
rising into the upper 70s and low 80s by afternoon. Rain and
thunderstorm chances arrive late Sunday (after 4pm). Confidence in
these storms developing is quite low as we will be fairly stable
through Sunday evening. Current model guidance shows the better
chance for thunderstorm development will be further south (Northern
Kansas). Therefore, only included a low chance pop (about 30
percent) for our southern counties for late Sunday afternoon and
evening at this time. However, any slight adjustment in moisture or
instability northward could significantly change the forecast. This
will definitely be something that will be watched tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Sunday night through Tuesday...opportunities for strong or severe
thunderstorms present themselves late Sunday and Monday. The NAM
suggests Nrn Neb Sunday while the GFS model suggests Swrn Neb. The
NAM also fires off storms across Swrn Neb Monday aftn while the GFS
develops storms across all of Wrn Neb. The locations of storm
activity will depend on focus and moisture convergence near the peak
heating period of the late aftn and early evening.

Moisture...shear and instability are fairly modest but lapse rates
are steep with K indices in the lower 40s C. Sfc dew points rise
into the upper 50s Monday providing good moisture support. The NAM
was carrying this portion of the fcst with higher precipitable
values...over an inch. The GFS indicated steeper lapse rates with
more low level heating. All of this suggests a mix of strong and
severe thunderstorms producing hail as a main concern.  Monday would
appear to be the better chance with more storm coverage.

SPC outlooked the fcst area for severe weather Monday with the
better chance for supercell development across Nwrn Neb where the
shear will be stronger.

As a result of the deep convection across Swrn-Scntl Neb
Monday...the NAM develops a closed H700mb low across Nern Neb
Tuesday morning. None of the other models show this happening so
Tuesday could turn out be dry as the GFS...GEM and ECM are nearly
dry. The GFS ensemble holds on to a likely pops across Scntl Neb.
Still the NAM has been verifying forecasting moisture correctly so
it will not be completely discounted for now. A blend of the model
data produces a 40 pop across Ncntl Neb Tuesday morning.

A Pacific cold front will move through the fcst area Tuesday and dry
out the atm. The ECM has led with the feature and the GEM...GFS and
its ensemble are close to the ECM carrying the upper low quickly
through the Nrn Plains.

Tuesday night through Saturday...a dry forecast is in place. The
Pacific cold front should drive moisture well south of the fcst area
with no signficant moisture return developing until Friday. The fcst
area will be northwest flow aloft as a strong upper level ridge
builds into the Cntl Rockies.

The models keep the moisture return off the the high plains but with
sfc low pressure forming across the Nrn High would seem
conducive for isolated storm development which could be carried east
into the fcst area. It would appear that sfc high pressure across TX
will prevent more moist air from moving north up the high plains
and the fcst is dry for now.

High temperatures gradually warm from the upper 60s Wednesday to
lower 80s Saturday as a weak thermal ridge develops.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
move east through north central Nebraska through the early morning
hours Sunday east of a line from KANW to KLBF. Some strong gusty
winds to 30kts may be encountered along this line.
Otherwise...expect VFR conditions across the rest of western
Nebraska through Sunday afternoon.


Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Flooding along the North Platte River and main branch of the Platte
River will continue. While water levels will remain fairly steady
through the weekend, moderate flooding will continue along the North
Platte River at North Platte and Lewellen. Minor flooding will
continue at Lisco and Brady (along the main branch of the Platte
River). Although the South Platte river is not anticipated to flood
at this time, water level will remain elevated at both Roscoe and
North Platte.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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