Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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102
FXUS63 KLBF 280156 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
856 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Per coordination with SPC...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302 has
been allowed to expire at 02z. There is still a chance for an
isolated severe thunderstorm capable of large hail and wind damage
overnight. This would be most likely across Western Sheridan
County and perhaps Garden County.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Surface based thunderstorms are developing this afternoon across the
Nebraska panhandle as expected, while other more isolated elevated
thunderstorms continue farther to the east. Short term high
resolution models are insistent that a small MCS will organize from
the developing activity in the Nebraska panhandle, and roll
southeast through southwest Nebraska this evening. Initially storms
across the panhandle will likely be supercells, with large hail the
main threat. This evening as the MCS develops, strong winds will
also be possible in addition to large hail. Storms should have
exited the area by midnight or shortly after.

Some mid level instability will remain into Tuesday morning, and the
NAM does develop some isolated elevated thunderstorms Tuesday
morning, so will continue the mention in the forecast. Otherwise
expect surface based thunderstorm development by late afternoon
across northwest Nebraska ahead of a decent mid level wave dropping
southeast into the region. Again, supercells expected initially with
a fairly large MCS developing by Tuesday evening across much of
western and southwest Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main forecast challenge Tuesday night through Saturday is
precipitation. Periods of thunderstorms are likely with northwest
flow aloft and several wave or trough passages. Severe weather
potential enhanced Tuesday night west of a Gordon through North
Platte line and a slight risk further east to a Valentine thorugh
Broken Bow line. Models have been consistent with an mcs
developing off the Black Hills region southeastward across
western Nebraska. discrete supercells should evolve into a
forward propagating mcs, with heavy rainfall and damaging wind
gusts the main severe threats. Heavy rainfall is forecast across
the western Sandhills and into the Platte River system. widespread
half inch to inch amounts are likely with a strip to two inch
rainfall amounts possible. With most river below actions stage, no
immediate concerns for any river flooding.

Additional chances for thunderstorms to organize each afternoon
and evening period Wednesday through Friday. Upper flow becomes
more zonal this weekend, although storm chances still exist.
Highs should be held in the low 80s through Friday, warming into
the 90s by Sunday and Monday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The isolated ongoing thunderstorm activity is generally expected
to weaken or dissipate by 04z-06z this evening. Isolated
thunderstorms may devevlop tonight and Tuesday at just about any
time given the northwest flow aloft. New organized thunderstorms
may develop on the Srn Black Hills late Tuesday aftn which could
perhaps affect Nwrn Neb before 00z Tuesday evening. The ECM
suggests this. The NAM shows storms firing on the Big Horn
Mountains in WY at 21z Tuesday which would not reach Wrn Neb until
late Tuesday evening.


&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...CDC



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