Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170444
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

A closed upper low was analyzed in east central Colorado at 20z.
Thunderstorm activity still at a minimum with only isolated storms
from extreme east central Colorado into extreme southwest
Nebraska. A rather large cumulus field however across the region.
Valentine has once again reached 100 degrees as of 20z. This is
the third day in a row, and the 7th time this month Valentine has
reached or exceeded 100. Valentine is also been very dry so far
this month with 0.10 recorded on July 3rd, and only a trace on two
other occasions, attributing to the heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Tonight...A closed low center over the CO-NE-KS border will lift
slowly into southwest Nebraska overnight. This will bring
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to southwest
Nebraska. The RAP and HRRR model both indicate precipitable water
values increasing to 1.5-1.75 inches, which is overdone slightly,
but indicates the anomalously high moisture available. Winds at
850 mb increase to 30 kts and as Shown by the NAM bufkit, deep
warm rain processes indicate to potential for heavy rainfall
developing late tonight. On Monday, this closed low will be the
main weather feature, with abundant moisture and chances for
precipitation up to 50 percent from southwest into central
Nebraska thorough the day. The NAM remains slightly faster with
this system than the GFS, and accounted for a slower solution.
Given the model QPF output, locally heavy rainfall is suggested.
Abundant cloud cover from southwest through central Nebraska will
also hold back highs to the upper 80s. To the west and north,
highs will reach the low to mid 90s. greater instability to also
support isolated storm development across northern Nebraska in
the afternoon. Much of western Nebraska will be in a marginal
risk area, with marginally severe hail and wind gusts possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The closed low will become an open wave as it moves into eastern
Nebraska overnight. Still a good chance for thunderstorms across
the eastern zones Monday evening. Other thunderstorms are likely
to develop in the panhandle and southwestern South Dakota and move
into the northwest Sandhills as well. Heating back up Tuesday, as
the upper ridge oriented west to east from the Four Corners
through the Central Plains bring highs back into the mid and
upper 90s. A weak front to bisect the area Tuesday afternoon and
evening for a focus for thunderstorms to develop on with stronger
winds aloft in place across the Northern Plains. There will again
be a marginal risk area, north of I80, where marginally severe
hail and wind gusts are possible.

Wednesday shaping up to be the hottest day of the week, as the
upper ridge intensifies across the Central Plains, and the
frontal boundary lifts north into South Dakota. Most area are
likely to reach 100 degrees, with southwest Nebraska into the
central sandhills reaching as hot as 105. A chance for
thunderstorms Wednesday evening across north central Nebraska,
which will be on southern periphery of the upper ridge.

There will chances for thunderstorms over portions of the
forecast area each day Thursday through Sunday. The main upper
ridge will migrate into the Southern Plains and southeastern U.S.,
and bring monsoonal moisture into the region. The northern stream
will become more active, and bring better chances for thunderstorms
late afternoon and overnight each day. Highs to remain above
normal Thursday and Friday from 92 to near 100 degrees, then lower
90s Saturday, and upper 80s by next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For the KLBF terminal: Expect increasing high cloudiness overnight
across southwestern Nebraska as a slow moving upper level
disturbance lifts into southwestern Nebraska. There will be an
increasing threat for thunderstorms late Monday morning into
Monday afternoon, across southwestern Nebraska. However, with some
location and timing differences with the short range model
solutions, decided to handle the mention with a vcts group from
19z Monday till 02z on Tuesday. For the KVTN terminal: Skies will
be mostly clear over the next 24 hours with ceilings ranging from
15000 to 20000 FT AGL form 19z Monday till 06z Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



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