Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 101122 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
522 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

H5 WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHARPENING THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST. NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH 100KTS-130KTS AT
250MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DIVIDING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AS
WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS IN THE 50S WEST AND THE 40S
EAST. TONIGHT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. AREA MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ON THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.  TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...AND READINGS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ZONES. WILL RETAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT LIGHT QPF THERE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INDICATE A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR
DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SNOW/RAIN AS THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW AND ONLY INVADES THE DGZ FOR A SHORT
WHILE. FRIDAY THE FRONT BACKS WEST ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTH DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY...SO
READINGS OUT WEST MAY REACH ONCE AGAIN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LIGHT QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS WEST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW LIMITED
DEEP MOISTURE...SO -FZDZ MAY BE A CONCERN UNTIL THE DGZ FINALLY
SATURATES. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST
ONLY A HUNDRETH OR TWO QPF...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS THE ARCTIC HIGHS SETTLES OVER THE CORNBELT.
A WARM FRONT HOWEVER WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE FORCING...THE GFS IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT WE
CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER BEYOND SUNDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BETWEEN KONL AND KVTN LATE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER


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