Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 210432 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN LOTS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HANGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR SLOWLY...AND ARE
NOW ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD FEEL IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT AND PRIMARY FORCING REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL LOWER POPS A BIT. AS
MENTIONED...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED CIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN SD TO WESTERN KS...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND COULD ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. YET ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING...AS HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO LOTS OF AREAS TO WATCH...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE
SCENARIO MATERIALIZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
OVERALL SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUITE WEATHER DAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA  AS THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. KEPT THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS SEEM TO
FAVOR STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HELD OFF HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY 00Z SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 150 PERCENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WED WHEN NEXT TROF IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG LIFT AS MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN OMEGA
VALUES AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
CREATING A FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN PLACE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING
CONVECTION COULD LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT EXITING BY 12Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY CAUSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN EXCEPT
THE MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SO POPS ARE ISOLATED LATE THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND
ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...CDC





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