Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 281120 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.

WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS IDAHO WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND
NCNTL NEB TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY FROM KIML-KVTN AND EAST BETWEEN
03Z-09Z. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 45KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC





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