Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 131201 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
701 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AT H5 HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE
SURFACE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER KANSAS CITY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE PRE FIRST PERIOD AND TO INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH 25KTS ABOUT 500 FT OFF THE DECK ON
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TERM
SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAVE FROST ADVISORY GOING THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN CUSTER COUNTY. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TODAY AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND 850MB COLD POOL MOVING EAST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
TODAY WITH NEAR 70 OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPGLIDE OVER A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE FRONT COMES SOUTH THROUGH
NEBRASKA...CREATING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT SOME INSTABILITY...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY IS AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EXCEEDING 2500J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
WILL ACTUALLY BE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS NOT AS STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ028-029-038-
059-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER





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