Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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062
FXUS63 KLBF 212145
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
345 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The second of three major Pacific storms will track across the
southern plains tonight. Our area will see some high clouds
spread north from this system, but no precipitation will occur.
There will be enough breaks in the clouds to allow temperatures to
cool into the mid teens to mid 20s, with the coldest readings
confined to western Nebraska, particularly the panhandle.

Sunday`s weather will be similar to today, but northwest winds
will be a bit stronger on the backside of the southern plains
storm system. Local gusts to 25 mph are possible. Otherwise
temperatures very similar, with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Deep mixing is expected across the entire area, so highs nearing
50 degrees will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The main sensible weather concern in the long term period
continues to revolve around a potential winter storm for the
region Tuesday-early Wednesday. The main forecasts challenges
with respect to this upcoming weather system includes:
precipitation type, location/timing of heaviest precipitation,
snow amounts, and winds. While some uncertainty still exists with
this system as models continue to show differences in the large
scale pattern and thus a forecast envelope with a fair amount of
spread, there is increasing confidence that the system will impact
some portions of western and north central NEB. However, the
details and associated impacts are difficult to pin down and that
is attributable to the disagreement that is currently present.
Otherwise, concerns were low prior to Tuesday and beyond Wednesday
with minimal sensible weather impacts anticipated. Highs on Monday
are expected to exceed seasonal normal values by about 5-10
degrees (approaching near 15 degrees some places). This will then
be followed by generally below normal highs Tuesday through Friday
with Wednesday looking to be the coldest at this time (highs about
5 to 10 degrees below normal).

Quiet conditions are expected Sunday Night through Monday. A ridge
will have moved into the central CONUS at the start of the period
(extending from the northern Chihuahuan Desert into the Northern
Plains) with decent height rises across the Southern and Central
Plains. The ridge will then shift eastward and extend from the
Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday.
Meanwhile, the next wave will be progressing through the western
CONUS.

Monday Night through Wednesday, deterministic guidance continues
to show the potential for a winter storm impacting the region. As
previously mentioned, guidance continues to show differences in
the general storm track, location and amplitude/strength. Of note,
guidance appears to show better agreement in timing of the system
compared to location.

An upper trough will be entering the Northern and Central Plains
Monday Night with a closed low expected to develop in the Central
Plains early Tuesday. The mid-level low will move eastward and
then lift into the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday. A surface low is
expected to develop in the eastern Central Plains late Monday and
will move into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday afternoon.
The surface low then lifts into the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday
morning-Wednesday midday. There remains still a fair amount of
uncertainty with the surface low track Tuesday-Wednesday. Of
which, ensemble guidance (GEFS) and deterministic guidance (ECMWF
and Canadian) show a general track more so across central KS to
NW MO/SW IA. Based on current guidance with a lean towards a more
southern track, the best potential for moderate to heavy snow
(exceeding 3 inches) lies across the northern-third of the local
forecast area (the northern half of the Sandhills into North
Central NEB towards the SD border), this includes US Highway 20.
Furthermore, guidance has slowed some with this system thus the
best chances for snow are forecast to occur Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening. Winds will be gusty on the backside of the
cyclone Tuesday and Tuesday night as it departs away from western
and north central NEB. Gusty northwest winds are expected to peak
up to 35 mph and will promote blowing/drifting snow in areas, and
thus reduced visibilities. Snow chances then linger on into
Wednesday morning.

Dry and quiet weather is anticipated then Wednesday through
Saturday. A large amplified pattern will be in place Wednesday as
a ridge builds and moves onto the west coast and the long wave
trough extends southwestward into the Southwest CONUS. Generally
fair agreement exists through Saturday with quiet sensible
weather expected despite minor large scale differences. The upper
level ridge is anticipated to dominate the Western CONUS in this
time period while the trough will slowly progresses eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 333 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the region though tonight.
Winds will be light with scattered to broken high level cirrus
clouds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...Power



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