Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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231
FXUS63 KLBF 120520 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1120 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SURFACE DATA AT 19Z SHOWED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. THE EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING MODERATE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING ON THE PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG IN MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MID TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARCTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A H750 WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG A MERRIMAN TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. LIFT WILL INCREASE INVOF...AND EAST OF
THE ELEVATED FRONT OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EAST OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT...SNOW WILL BE
THE MAIN PTYPE...WHILE ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT...FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING PTYPE
MENTION AS FZDZ FOR NOW AS THERE IS A DECENT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER WHICH EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY FROM THE SFC TO 800MB. ON
SATURDAY...THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND FAR
WESTERN CWA...H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
FACILITATE AT LEAST A FZDZ MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE H750 FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND ELEVATED
LIFT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...CLEARING THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. QPF/S WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.

LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS COLORADO
INTO KANSAS. LOW POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST IN THE FAR SWRN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BEST LIFT...WHICH RESIDES OVER NWRN KS AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN
THE EAST. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND FOG SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH AND
WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR 18Z FRIDAY. A PATCH OF
VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB AS INDICATED BY THE
NAM AND RAP WHICH VARY WITH THE LOCATION BETWEEN KANW AND KLBF.
THE FORECAST USES THE NAM FOR THIS FEATURE WHICH KEEPS KLBF IN
MVFR ALL DAY.

CIGS SHOULD LOWER FRIDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH WRN NEB. THE FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC



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