Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 180434
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Thunderstorm chances to continue tonight, mainly east of a line
from Stockville through Arnold and Bartlett. Given high
precipitable water vales near 1.5 inches, heavy rainfall will be
the primary focus for the far eastern zones. There will also be
isolated storms possible further west, from the influence of the
upper trough as it moves from central and south central Nebraska
into eastern Nebraska overnight. On Tuesday, another hot day.
Highs from 90 to 95 north central and 95 to 102 south. A backed
east to southeast will maintain dewpoints in the upper 60s to near
70 east, with upper 50s western Sandhills. The combination of
heat and humidity will cause heat indices to reach the upper 90s
east and southwestern zones. The highest values look to be across
Chase, Hayes and Frontier County, reaching 100 to as high as 105.
These counties will be in a heat advisory from 18z-01z. Other
areas across the southeast will approach 100 degree heat index
values. A slight chance for thunderstorms as a weak frontal
boundary becomes draped across the central forecast area. A few
storms could become strong during the late afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Thunderstorm chances Tuesday evening from southwest Nebraska into
the central and eastern zones. Models suggest the better chance
for thunderstorms will be east of Valentine through Broken Bow. A
few storms could become strong.

Wednesday shaping up to be the hottest day of the week, as the
upper ridge intensifies across the Central Plains, and the
frontal boundary refocuses near the South Dakota border. Most
areas are likely to reach 100 degrees, with southwest Nebraska
into the central sandhills reaching as hot as 105. Many areas are
likely to reach 100 degrees or high heat indices. A chance for
thunderstorms Wednesday night across north central Nebraska, which
will be near the stalled frontal boundary and on the northern
periphery of the upper ridge.

There will chances for thunderstorms over portions of the
forecast area each day Thursday through Monday. The main upper
ridge will migrate into the Southern Plains and southeastern U.S.,
and bring monsoonal moisture into the region through at least
Saturday. The northern stream will become more active, and bring
better chances for thunderstorms late afternoon and overnight each
day. Models diverge by Sunday and Monday, as the European model
builds the upper ridge back into the Plains. Highs to remain
hot on Thursday from the mid to upper 90s north and upper 90s to
low 100s south. Still in the 90s Friday, then upper 80s to lower
90s Saturday, and upper 80s by next Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Little confidence exists in the forecast over the next 6 to 12
hours as the short range solutions including the HRRR, 4KM/NAM12
and operational NAM12 have done a bad job depicting the storms
over northern Nebraska tonight. Based on the trajectory of ongoing
convection in northwestern Cherry county, will utilize a tempo
group for the KVTN terminal from 06z to 10z overnight. Realize
this may need to be adjusted as the convection approaches the
area. As storms approach, there is the potential for wind gusts to
40 MPH with heavy rain and small hail possible. After 10z,
scattered to broken cigs around 15000 FT AGL are expected. For the
KLBF terminal, am expecting dry conds attm with no threat for
thunderstorms overnight into Tuesday morning. There is a small
threat for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, but coverage will be
limited and will forgo mentioning them in the 06z TAF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Tuesday for NEZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



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