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000
FXUS63 KLBF 160448
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AN ACTIVE NEXT 36 HRS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY VEERING TO THE EAST. THIS IS ENHANCING THE
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND INTO
ADJACENT NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEEPENING CUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE FROM CHEYENNE TO FORT COLLINS...AIDED BY AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THESE STORMS DEVELOPING INTO A COMPLEX OF
STORMS AS THE ROLL EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. FOR OUT LOCAL REGION...THE
AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 COULD GET CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX...WITH THE IMPERIAL AREA HAVING THE GREATEST
RISK.

ALL MODELS INDICATE A STORMY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THESE FEATURES SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...WITH STORMS MERGING INTO A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO KANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE SUPERCELLS...AND BOTH WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE
HAIL WITH THE COMPLEX. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELL STORMS...AS SEVERAL
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE AREA LOCALLY
ENHANCING SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. CHANCE
POPS TO CONTINUE MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST 50
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH IN
SOME AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH POSSIBLE.

MONDAY WILL BE COOLER AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AND AND EASTERLY
UPSLOPE WIND DEVELOPS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTMS EASTERN PANHANDLE/WESTERN SANDHILLS. THE NAM MODEL
QPFS REMAIN SUSPECT AND OVERDONE MONDAY WITH TOO STRONG OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INDICATED COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. THEREFORE THE NAM WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FAVOR OF THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FOR TUESDAY...WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 30 POPS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
NORTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE RATHER FLATTENED.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 12Z WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP DOWN TO 7000 FT AGL. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
RANGING FROM 15000 TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON 25000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS DOWN TO 5000 FT AGL IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK FOR CIGS TO INCREASE TO 15000 FT AGL SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB