Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 022043
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD TOUGH
IN THE EAST. STILL SEEING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. A SFC
BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. ALSO SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH LATEST
REPORTS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE TYPE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. SO FAR NO LIGHTNING DETECTED WITH SHOWERS...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRIKES HERE OR THERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK INSTABILITY SHIFTS SOUTH. NAM AND THE RAP
SUGGEST A SMALL WAVE IMPACTING NE COL/FAR SW NEB/NW KAN OVERNIGHT.
WITH ALL THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY GOING ON WITHIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...FELT THE NEED TO INCLUDE SMALL POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE. IT MAY NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
MID CLOUDS.

AS SOME CLEARING OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHWRS...TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE 60S AND MEET DEW PTS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SREF PROBS FAIRLY HIGH FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS
MORNING. DRIER AIR WEST OF HIGH 83 SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LITTLE IF ANY FOG DEVELOP.

TOMORROW WILL SEE HIGHS RETURN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE
NORTH/SOUTH SWATH OF WEAK INSTABILITY THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS TO REDEVELOP. THE NAM/EC ARE
SUGGESTING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER HAS THE ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST
INTO EASTERN NEB. WARRANTED A LOW ISOLATED POP AT THIS TIME...BUT
COULD SEE A BUMP UP TO CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. H8 CAPES INCREASE TO
1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DWPTS OF 60 TO 65. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE
LACKING A FRONT FOR FOCUS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG AT
40-50 KTS. POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SOME AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA CANADA ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NW NEBR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
FAIRLY STRONG 100KT H3 JET WILL MOVE FROM ERN MT INTO NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST SOME STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE. GIVEN AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MODEL
QPF GENERATED...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES.

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A FLATTENED
RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN U.S AND AN ACTIVE JET STREAM
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING NEBRASKA AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 MONDAY AND TUESDAY WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MID
80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY HAS A FEW STORMS ALONG IT ALREADY...AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY IS SOUTH
OF KVTN SO NO IMPACT EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE KLBF AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE ISOLD TO SCT SO
INCLUDED A VCTS IN THE TAF. WILL MONITOR FOR AN AMEND IF PROB OF
IMPACT AT THE KLBF TERMINAL INCREASES.

OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE. IF FOG DEVELOPS MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK







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