Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 222040
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Fairly quiet conditions across central Nebraska over the next couple
days. A large upper level ridge remains in place allowing surface
high pressure to expand across the region. This will keep us dry
through most of Thursday. A wave coming off the front ranges will
try to bring in some precipitation late Thursday. Current thinking,
though, is precipitation won`t arrive until Thursday evening. Only
included a slight chance of precipitation for the southwest counties
(Chase, Perkins, and Hayes) for late Thursday afternoon. For
temperatures...lows drop into the upper 50s for most locations, the
exception being the southern counties where lows only drop down into
the low 60s. Thursday highs rise into the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Thursday night through Saturday...Storms are expected to form on the
Colorado front range around 21z Thursday. This activity is expected
to brush Southwest Nebraska Thursday evening and dissipate or move
east by 06z Thursday Night. Thereafter the forecast for
thunderstorms becomes complicated with no real model consensus shown
other than storm coverage is generally expected to be isolated.

It is believed the Colorado front range and Laramie ranges will be
the focus for thunderstorm development around 21z Friday. The models
continue to carry storms off the Laramie range and into the Nebraska
Panhandle. The NAM shows the storms dissipating mostly west of the
forecast area. This GFS shows a storm moving off the Cheyenne divide
and dissipating across Southwestern Nebraska Friday evening while
the ECM blows storms up Friday afternoon across Western Nebraska. So
there is little model consensus as to what will happen exactly. The
basic forecast limits thunderstorm development to isolated coverage
due to a strengthening cap shown by the models. This has been the
case over the past few days ever since the record heat wave
developed across the Southwestern U.S. last weekend.

A cold front will move through Western Nebraska Friday night and
North Central Nebraska. A strengthening thermal ridge at h700mb
ahead of this cold front is expected to limit storm development
Friday night. The models suggest thunderstorms could form
Saturday...generally across North Central Nebraska or east of the
forecast area across Eastern Nebraska.

The temperature forecast Friday follows a blend of guidance plus
bias correction for highs in the 90s. 80s are in place Saturday
using model blended data plus bias correction.

Saturday night through Wednesday...the GFS...its ensemble run and
the ECM continue to advertise...upslope sfc winds...zonal to
northwest flow aloft and showers and thunderstorms Monday night
through at least Tuesday. Rain chances are in place Wednesday also
POPs are limited to 40 percent for this forecast.

High pressure building into the region Saturday will become the
basis for return moisture which should be directed westward and
northwestward through the forecast area. The latest model guidance
indicates highs around 80 Tuesday and Wednesday which is consistent
with cool high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest.

Temperatures at 700mb remain 10C to 15C which could certainly limit
storm coverage. Nonetheless...the models suggest the best chance of
rain will generally be over Wrn Missouri...Kansas and
reaching into Wrn Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Northerly wind gusts up to 25 to 30 knots are expected through
late afternoon. Winds will slowly begin to diminish late today and
then remain below 10 knots through the overnight hours. Scattered to
broken ceilings will remain over KLBF through Thursday morning, with
KVTN skies remaining clear. Thursday, southeast winds increase once
again, however, gusts are expected to remain below 20 knots.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

A reduction in releases continues on the North Platte river
allowing water levels to continue to fall. The North Platte river
at North Platte will drop to below flood stage by Thursday.
Decreased releases will also allow water levels to return to
normal by Thursday evening. Lewellen will remain in minor flooding
through next week.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik
HYDROLOGY...Kulik


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