Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 270531
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1231 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST OVER THE MISS RVR VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW ACROSS N DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTH THEN EAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEB INTO MISSOURI...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN S DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NEB. THERMAL RIDGE
OVERHEAD...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROVIDING GUSTY NW WINDS AND A
BOOST OF TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PLOW ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN BEING PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MOISTURE LACKING AT THE SURFACE WITH
COLD DRY AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT. MODELS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH FAVORABLE 700-500 FGEN BAND TO
PUSH ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CONCERN IS HOW FAST THE
ELEVATED MOISTURE INCREASE. MODELS INITIALLY HAVE PWATS ONLY NEAR 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL...HOWEVER THEY DO INCREASE TOWARDS 75 PERCENTILE
AND NEAR 2SD BEFORE THE BAND EXITS. THUS EXPECT A BAND TO SHOW UP ON
RADAR EARLY TONIGHT AS THE WAVE ARRIVES...HOWEVER PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WILL TAKE ADDITIONAL TIME. WITH THE INITIAL PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE VIRGA...MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OVERDONE AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
A SECOND DISTURBANCE QUICKLY FOLLOWS THE INITIAL WAVE...HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND LIFT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME. OVERNIGHT CAA WILL HELP NW NEB TO COOL TO
THE LOWER 40S...LOCALLY UPPER 30S. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS N
CENTRAL WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. STILL SHOULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS...DUE TO SECOND WAVE...ON MONDAY ALONG WITH COOL AIR
SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...THIS IS
REALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE SCENE THIS WEEK...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE. THE GREATEST VARIABILITY WILL BE IN THE WEST. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE STRONG FRONT EARLY THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST...AT
LEAST IN THE WEST...AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL HAVE LESS VARIABILITY FROM
ONE DAY TO THE NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SO HAVE INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE KVTN TAF 09Z-14Z. A SECONDARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 32015G25KT AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG






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