Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 272256
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
456 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS...AND A 576DM RIDGE
BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE CORE
OF THE WARMEST 850HPA TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE 850HPA TEMPS WILL STILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 10C IN THE PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AT 28/12Z. DESPITE SURFACE WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
28/06Z AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED. THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE COLD AIR DRAINING WHILE THE WIND REMAINS
LIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOWS NEAR 30F.

AFTER 28/12Z...STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE IN THE PANHANDLE AND WORK
EASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE 50KTS AT 850HPA ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE. WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE...NOT EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO EXCEED 15KTS...AT LEAST
THROUGH 28/15Z. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GRADUALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL HELP JUMP TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S BY 28/18Z.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER
60S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE SPEEDS APPROACH 25KTS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR
THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE /PRIMARILY
500 TO 750HPA/ IS PRESENT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 28/21Z. ATMOSPHERIC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT THE GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8C/KM. TOYED WITH INTRODUCING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THE SURFACE TO 800HPA AS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION
OF SPRINKLES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THE UNDERLYING LAYER
IS STILL QUITE DRY. AS A RESULT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. IT IS ENOUGH TO HAVE A MENTION
OF SPRINKLES (VERY LIGHT SHOWERS).

A FRONT COMING ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SNOW EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET ANY KIND OF FIX ON THE AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING
AND COLORADO AND THEN ACROSS THE TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE
FRONT STALLED...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WIND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME 280-310 AT
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 18-21G28-30KT BY 19Z.
OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






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