Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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791 FXUS63 KLBF 082000 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 300 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through Thursday. - After a brief break heading into the weekend, unsettled conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast from Sunday and into the first part of next week. - Temperatures will be seasonably cool with a gradual warming trend into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Satellite imagery shows clouds and scattered showers blooming across northern and western Nebraska early this afternoon. With a large, filling upper low lingering over the region expect the clouds and showers will continue to expand southward and eastward through this afternoon behind a very weak frontal boundary moving down from the north. Diurnal heating this afternoon aids instability with modest cool advection aloft, though limited moisture will generally confine showers to along/north of Hwy 2. Overall instability is limited but lapse rates aloft should be able to support some thunder as well. If the cool pool aloft was more robust there would be better potential for some graupel but this looks like a remote possibility. Shear is also limited and do not expect any significant degree of organization to convection. Expect scattered showers will linger into this evening as it diminishes through early tonight. The filling upper low will gradually pinch off from the parent trof and drift a off a bit to the southwest, while the axis of the parent trof pushes through Nebraska late tonight into Thursday with a renewed round of diurnally biased scattered showers/thunder into Thursday evening. Once convection diminishes early Thursday night, generally dry conditions can be expected through daybreak Friday. Highs today and Thursday generally range form the mid/upper 50s northwest to upper 60s southeast. Lows generally upper 30s west/lower 40s east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in lingering the pinched off upper low over the southwestern US with some troffiness extending up through the Rockies into the Plains through the weekend and into the first part of next week. This will allow moisture to pool over the Plains and keep unsettled conditions with diurnally biased scattered showers/thunderstorms in the forecast through Tuesday. Signals for high impact weather are absent so the overall weather threat level is low heading into next week. Temperatures will gradually warm to above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions prevail through a majority of the period across western and north central Nebraska. Scattered rain showers will be possible across northwest and north central Nebraska, including KVTN. Confidence remains too low on specific impacts to the terminal at this time, thus will use VCSH for a period this afternoon into the evening. Winds will continue out of the north and northwest through the period with gusts 20 to 30kts across southwest and south central Nebraska through sunset, other locations remaining at 12kts or less. Ceilings will begin to low to MVFR/IFR across northwest and northern Nebraska early Thursday morning, impacting KVTN. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Viken