Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 130515 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WAS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING...TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A PLUME OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INDICATED FROM THE PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS IN THE 280-285K LAYER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LIFT IS
WEAK AND NOT IN A THICK LAYER IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE LIFT EXTENDS TO NEAR 500MB
IN THE 290-305K LAYER AND INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THUS FAVORING LIGHT SNOW. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHES IN THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHWEST BUT THE LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MID TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE MIDTERM...THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT MID LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOME WEAK LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SRN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NRN NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
WERE RETAINED ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAY SPRINGS TO EWING. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. AFTER MAINLY DRY CONDS ON
SUNDAY...A JET STREAK AND SECONDARY MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
THESE LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH FAR SWRN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET STREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED GIVEN THE EXITING SYSTEM
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF/S MINIMAL. ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...FORCING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR PCPN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. ATTM...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET.
HOWEVER...WEAK LIFT IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH MONDAY EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL
RAIN...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO
THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY FURTHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH VERY WARM AIR PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THIS
MORNING AND ARE HINTING AT 60S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO
TREND TEMPS HIGHER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECM AND MEX GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS
FOR TEMPS AFTER MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK BEGIN TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO INCREASING HIGHS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.
FWIW...H85 TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PEAK OUT AT AROUND 16 TO 18C
ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA PER THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. IF THIS
VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE HIGHS NEXT THURSDAY APPROACHING THE 70
DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE IFR/LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VSBY ACROSS SWRN NEB SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH WRN NEB
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING WITH LIFR POSSIBLE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRATUS
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC


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