Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 212017
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
317 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Through 12z Wednesday.  Easterly upslope will work in conjunction
with a mid-level FGEN band and moderate tropospheric moisture to
increase precipitation chances across northern Nebraska overnight.
Thermal profiles initially  support rain, but sufficient radiational
cooling from central Cherry county east would suggest a change over
to all snow before midnight.  Cross sections across north central
Nebraska reveal weakly negative EPV with a brief period of CSI
possible.  Snow rates may briefly reach moderate for areas east of
VTN where the model consensus would suggest an inch or two
accumulation.  The band of accumulating QPF should be fairly
confined to northern Nebraska, bu light amounts will still be
possible for the central Sandhills and southeast through Custer
County until 12z Wednesday.

The easterly to southeast lower tropospheric flow will be slow to
yield to a warm front from the west.  This will allow for overnight
lows in the mid 30s across the higher terrain of the western
Sandhills, southwest Nebraska and eastern Panhandle, but upper 20s
will prevail across our northeastern zones.


A chance for light snow Wednesday morning across the northeast.
Then by afternoon, the upper ridge will build east and warm air
advection will build across the High Plains, with south to
southeast winds across the area in the afternoon. Highs will
contrast from the low to mid 60s eastern panhandle and far
southwest, to the upper 40s northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The main forecast concern will be an upper trough and closed low
moving into/across the region Thursday through Saturday.

A chance for showers across the northeastern half of the area
Wednesday night as an amplified trough digs into the Four Corners
Region and deep southwesterly flow occurs across the Central
Plains. A low level jet will develop from southwest into central
Nebraska, and be favorable for elevated showers to develop. Some
elevated instability could cause a few thunderstorms as well.

On Thursday, the amplified trough and closed low will move over
the Four Corners, as a strongly amplified south southwesterly
flow aloft stream across western Nebraska. This will bring strong
warming to the forecast area with highs from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A warm front is poised to develop from NEar Ainsworth through
Bartlett. Along and north of the front, thunderstorms may develop
by late afternoon, a few which could become strong to severe.
Thunderstorms should expand in coverage during the evening hours
as the front strengthens from near Ogallala northeast through
O`Neill. Fire weathers concern will also increase on Thursday, as
a dryline may push east across the western sandhills and southwest
Nebraska.

A well defined deformation zone will develop late Thursday into
Friday, as the upper low center moves east across the Texas
Panhandle. Likely to definite pops remain in the forecast through
Friday evening. Colder air will be drawn into the backside of the
system Friday afternoon. Precip type is forecast to change to
snow across the west Friday evening, then eastward Friday night.
The rain or snow is forecast to end from west to east on Saturday.
Snow accumulations are forecast to be less than an inch due to low
snow ratios and model uncertainty. Appreciable precipitation
totals from three quarters of an inch to one and a quarter inch
is forecast across much of the area.

Another system will move across Sunday into Sunday night,
although the better chances should remain to our south across
Kansas. Highs Saturday through Tuesday should be seasonable in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

IFR ceilings at KVTN will improve to VFR, then fall back to MVFR
after midnight as a disturbance tracks across northern Nebraska.
This will bring a chance for light snow or sleet after midnight.
At KLBF, VFR conditions are forecast through tonight. Isolated
rain or snow showers are possible after midnight. On Wednesday
morning, ceilings are forecast to fall into the MVFR category.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jacobs/Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg



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