Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 281958
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
258 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IDAHO. UPSTREAM OF
THESE FEATURES...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IDAHO...SWD TO
SRN AZ. LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH SHORTWAVES
PRESENT OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW
TERRITORIES OF CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER THE SERN
CONUS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN
CHERRY COUNTY INTO THE SERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A THICK VEIL OF STRATOCU
TOPPED WITH CIRROSTRATUS FROM DECAYED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WEST
OF THE TROUGH CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO NUMEROUS DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CDT RANGED FROM 69 AT NORTH
PLATTE AND IMPERIAL...TO 79 AT ONEILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A FAIRLY
POTENT PV ANOMALY ROTATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS EVENING...AND
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY IS DECENT AS STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS. STORMS WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO
CONTINUE AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE APPROACHING PV ANOMALY.

AS THE ANOMALY TRACKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT A FAIRLY RAW DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THIS AREA...GENERALLY EXPECT 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MID RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE THE THREAT FOR RAIN FRIDAY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL...POST
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY EVENING. BY 06Z THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONFINE POPS TO
THE EVENING HRS ONLY WITH DRY CONDS FCST THEREAFTER. AFTER A QUICK
GLANCE AT THE LATEST MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE NORTH
WITH THE MET AND MAV LOWS FOR VALENTINE AT 38 AND 34 RESPECTIVELY.
TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM THE PVS FORECAST GIVEN THE
TRENDS IN GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DECIDED TO LIMIT LOWS TO AROUND 40 IN
THE NORTH WITH LOWER 40S IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BASED ON A COUPLE OF FACTORS. ONE...THE SURFACE HIGH IS WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND
SECOND...THE GFS AND NAM12 SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE QUITE A BIT
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE INDICATING
AND WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS...BELIEVE THE DRIER DEW POINTS ARE OVERDONE IN THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THANKS TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SRLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. INCREASED WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS ELEVATED
IN THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS AROUND 50 ARE FORECAST IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. FURTHER EAST...DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF SRLY WINDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IN WESTERN KS AND NERN
COLORADO WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN
ZONES...RESULTING IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST.
FURTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER H85 TEMPS FORECAST.

.LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING NRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS CAPPED AT THIS JUNCTURE...SO WILL
LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MAINLY DRY
AS RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A NICE
H85 THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING NEAR 30C IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE PER THE LATEST 12Z GFS FCST. MORE OF THE SAME OCCURS ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...CAPPING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE WEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS BROAD
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES...CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF...WILL SLOWLY
LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL...ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE MORE LIKELY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF LOW STRATUS REFORMING AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...DS









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