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000
FXUS63 KLBF 051743
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1143 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

COLD CLOUDLESS NIGHT WITH WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS EXTENDING
FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ACCORDING TO LAPS OVER SHERIDAN...WESTERN
CHERRY...GRANT AND NORTHERN GARDEN AND ARTHUR COUNTIES. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WIND CHILL CRITERIA FOR MOST OF WARNING AND
ADVISORY. WILL KEEP WARNING AND ADVISORY GOING THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TOWARDS SUNRISE. DEEPEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. HAVE TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WITH THIS IN MIND. VERY COLD WITH
SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. LESS MIXING TONIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA AGAIN FALLING WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER. THE KEY TONIGHT WILL BE THE CALM WINDS. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL LEAVE FOR
FOLLOWING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING. IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS FROM 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO. A COUPLE OF REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE DEEP FREEZE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS
LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL BY MIDWEEK AS A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC AIR TO EVENTUALLY WORK BACK EAST
INTO THE PLAINS...AND A CHINOOK WIND EVENT EVEN APPEARS POSSIBLE
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

SNOW CHANCES REMAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SATURDAY WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AND
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS...SO SHOULD SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP.
AGAIN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AS THIS IS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE.
LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH THOUGH WITH THE BITTER ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE...SO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
FOR LBF. NAM LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS APPEAR HEAVILY
SKEWED BY MODEL ASSUMED SNOW COVER...WHICH DOES NOT REFLECT THE
GRADIENT TO NO SNOW IN THE LBF AREA. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
MVFR CLOUD DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT THERE IS NO REAL-TIME INDICATION OF THIS ON
CURRENT OBS. THEREFORE HAVE SIDED WITH A BKN DECK ABOVE THIS BASED
ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. OTHER THAN THIS...WITH LITTLE OR NO
MELTING OF EXISTING SNOW COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA AM NOT ANTICIPATING FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ006>010-024>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NEZ004-
005-022-023-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JWS