Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 262302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
602 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Moist northeast upslope flow is keeping lower clouds across
most of western and north central Nebraska this afternoon. The
clouds will be slow to clear tonight across southwest Nebraska as
winds become more easterly and moisture lingers. With this in
mind, have raised lows a few degrees into the lower and middle
60s across southwest Nebraska. Clearing skies and a little drier
air will allow the rest of the area to fall into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Surface high pressure and much drier air will invade the area
Thursday. More seasonal highs are expected, in the mid to upper
80s. As mentioned much more comfortable as dew points fall into
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Long term period will be characterized by highs mainly near
seasonal normal values and a pattern largely unsettled with
chances for showers and thunderstorms present in the forecast by
and large Friday and beyond.

Large scale pattern will be fairly amplified at the start of the
period. An upper level ridge will be present over the western
CONUS extending from the Four Corners-Southern Plains north into
the Canadian Prairies early Thursday night. Elsewhere, a upper
level trough will be located downstream over the Northeast US with
a strong shortwave trough entering the Upper Great Lakes. Later
on, a weak embedded shortwave trough will track across western
NEB late Friday. While there are some differences in phase and
amplitude noted between guidance, a fairly modest signal is
present for showers and thunderstorms affecting portions of
western NEB late Friday afternoon-Friday night. Sufficient
moisture should be in place with storms expected to develop in
the Central High Plains and/or moving off the higher terrain. Best
destabilization appears to be located in the Central High Plains
(NE CO-NEB Panhandle-southwest SD) with moderate MU and ML CAPE
coincident with deep layer vertical wind shear (effective shear
largely 30-40 kts). Such that organized multicells appear
probable. The best chances are confined to the eastern NEB
Panhandle-southwest Nebraska.

The ridge will then continue to build into the northern
Intermountain West and Northern Rockies this weekend and will
become more expansive over the western CONUS. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday, however,
confidence is lower with respect to occurrence and timing. Mid-
level flow will be predominantly northwest into early next week.
Similar to the previous forecast, slight chances-chances for
showers and thunderstorms exist at times through much of the long
term period that could be attributable to embedded disturbances
within the flow rounding the ridge. Otherwise, highs are
anticipated to fall close to seasonal normal values to a few
degrees on the cool side under this large scale pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the
next 24 hours. Some ceilings near 5k feet will become scattered
with clearing skies overnight, followed by few-sct high
cloudiness on Thursday.




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