Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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991
FXUS63 KLBF 300835
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
335 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Decent shortwave noted in water vapor imagery this morning across
southern Nevada and southwest Utah, with several other weak impulses
noted across the Rockies into the Plains. The Nevada shortwave will
slowly track east into Utah and eventually Colorado by later
tonight.

After this morning`s round of showers and storms exit the area,
expecting a lull until this afternoon when additional convection is
expected to develop. Have cut back on pops some for our forecast
area, and thinking the better forcing and associated storms will
remain to our west and southwest in closer proximity to the
shortwave. So will have the highest pops in the far west and
southwest today and tonight, decreasing to just slight chance or no
pops across north central and central Nebraska.

As far as temepratures for today, expecting highs to climb into the
lower to mid 80s as fairly warm H850mb temperatures of 18 to 20C
remain across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Rain and thunderstorm chances remain for Friday and Saturday as a
series of shortwaves move across the region. While precipitation
will be possible through Saturday evening, the best chance to see
precipitation will likely be late Friday night. Rain chances will
slowly diminish by Saturday afternoon as high pressure attempts to
build into the region and push the main precipitation area further
south. Weak mid level ridging and resulting surface high will keep
us dry for the most part from Sunday through next Wednesday. Only
chances for rain during this time period will be isolated and mainly
in the afternoon as diurnal heating could help to spark a few
showers across central Nebraska.

For temperatures, have leaned towards the warmer side of guidance
for Friday through Sunday (mid to upper 70s). Plenty of warm air
advection combined with southerly winds will keep temperatures a
little warmer than what models are suggesting. The warming trend
continues next week, with high temperatures soaring into the mid 90s
by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

The forecast follows the HRRR model overnight and then the model
consensus for Thursday. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to form across Western and North Central Nebraska with
the best chance 21z-00z.

This consistent with the HRRR model which shows storms forming on
the Big Horn Mountains at 18z. This storm activity could affect
Wrn Neb Thursday evening in addition to any storm activity forming
in the afternoon.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC



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