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000
FXUS63 KLBF 092106
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
307 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES...

.SYNOPSIS...
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOW PRESSURE WAS ALSO LOCATED
OVER WESTERN IA AND OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE YUKON AND WESTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORY IN
CANADA. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...MERGING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE LIGHT SNOW
WAS OCCURRING AT 3 PM CST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CST...RANGED FROM
16 AT O`NEILL TO 23 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ONGOING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END BY 00Z AS DRIER AIR DROPS
SOUTH INTO NERN NEBRASKA FROM SRN SD. THE RUC THIS AFTERNOON HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE H80 TO H90 MOIST LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING
OCCURS TOWARD SUNSET. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DROP QUICKLY BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE OF LAST
NIGHT. HIGHER DEW POINTS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE BULK OF
MIN TEMPS AT OR NEAR ZERO TONIGHT...NOT THE WELL BELOW TEMPS SEEN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.

SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BL MOISTURE NWD INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDINESS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW NIGHT BASED ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE SATURATION IN THE H85 TO H90 LAYER BEYOND
MIDDAY TOMORROW. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR LOW CLOUDS IS EVIDENT IN THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS IN LOW CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME
FZDZ POTENTIAL TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DECENT WAA DEVELOPING ABOVE THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF STRATUS DEVELOPS FULLY
TOMORROW BEFORE COMMITTING TO MENTION OF FZDZ WEDS NIGHT. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AS
LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE. LIGHT WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER EAST...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR
OUT...WITH COOLER HIGHS FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...A DISTURBANCE AND
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO NERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY FRIDAY DUE TO THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST AND MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT NOTED
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS THIS MORNING...WITH RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC FROPA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN H5 LOW LOCATED OVER ERN CANADA...WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA ON SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH AND BACK INTO THE FORECAST ARE ON SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EWD ON MONDAY. WITH MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS...DECIDED TO CUT TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS WEEKEND. ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S HAVE BEEN DROPPED 10 DEGREES TO 20S AND LOWER 30S.
WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS GUIDANCE POPS STILL RUNNING BELOW
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE...IF THIS TRENDS FURTHER WEST...SOME POPS MAY BE
INTRODUCED...IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY. AFTER
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS NRLY FLOW ALOFT...TRANSITIONS TO NWRLY FLOW THANKS TO
THE CANADIAN LOW SHIFTING FURTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INCLUDING BOTH
KLBF/KVTN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND MIDWEST
CYCLONE STILL STREAMING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN CWA. RUC INDICATING LOW LEVEL DRYING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION AND EXPECT STRATUS AND FLURRY
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AND VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS WHOLE OF CWA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AREA OF STRATUS IN SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH LOOK TO RETURN NORTHWARD ON BACK OF SURFACE HIGH SOMEWHERE IN
THE 275K-280K ACCORDING TO MTV. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN STRATUS
DECK MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CWA AROUND 15Z-18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE WANES
AT HGT OF CIGS AGL SO CHOSE MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD OF 1500FT AGL. MAY
BE BRIEF PERIOD OF MIST AT KLBF AROUND SUNRISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT IFR
FOG CONDITION ATTM. STRATUS DECK AND LOWERED FLIGHT RULES LOOK TO
STICK AROUND WELL INTO FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN CWA...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE FAR WEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE



$$

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...BUTTLER
.AVIATION...DP