Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 080051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
750 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AT 19Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM ERN SD INTO SWRN MN AS
UPSLOPE SERLY WINDS OCCURRING IN WRN NEBR. STRATOCU CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEBR WITH SOME CEILINGS NEAR 4K FEET. MID
CLOUDINESS ALSO CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS WRN AREAS. STILL
INDICATIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC SMOKE TRAPPED ACROSS WRN NEBR...ALTHOUGH
TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES IN WRN NEBR RANGE
FROM 68 TO 76 DEGREES. WSR88D RADAR RETURNS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS OF SERN WY AND CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

TONIGHT...AN INFLUENCE FROM A NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ERN PNHDL BY
LATE EVENING. POPS TO INCREASE TO LOW CHC LATE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC EASTWARD TO NEAR HWY 61. THE INCREASING CHCS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE
MODELS INDICATING A SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM CO.
THIS REFLECTED BEST BY THE NAM AND NMMM MODELS. WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...LOWS INCREASED A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST TO THE UPPER 50S. LOW REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S PORTIONS
OF SERN ZONES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND
LESSER CLOUD COVER EFFECTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...LOW CHC
POPS EXTEND TO NEAR HWY 61 WITH A SLIGHT CHC EAST TO NEAR HWY 83.
THIS INDICATED BY THE NMMM AND ARW WHILE THE GFS BRING BEST CHCS
ACROSS SWRN NEBR THROUGH THE DAY. SINCE THE GFS LOOKS
OVERDONE...FAVORED A MULTIMODEL BLEND INTO THE AFTN. HIGHS
DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIPITATION EFFECTS.
HIGHS PUSHED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM MET GUIDANCE FROM NEAR 80 AT VTN
AND ANW TO THE LOWER 70S ERN PNHDL INTO THE OGA AREA. WINDS TO BE
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HAVING GREAT
DIFFICULTY HANDLING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOTS OF WOBBLING GOING ON IN THE
TRACK RESULTING IN INCONSISTENT POP FORECASTS. THE NAM...ECM AND GEM
ARE DRY WHILE THE GFS AND SREF SUGGEST A WETTER FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB. THE DIFFERENCES INVOLVE THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COMPETING ENERGY FROM A DISTURBANCE
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.

TODAYS MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS THE DISTURBANCE ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUGGESTING RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ARISES FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A 60KT 300MB JET WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY EVENING. DEW POINTS COULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE AFTN...THE NAM SHOWS A MODEST CAP BUT K
INDICES SOAR INTO THE 40S AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE AFTN. THIS
WOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN SUFFICIENT LIFT WHICH THE MODEL SHOWS AT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE GFS IS SLOWER...STILL HAS K INDICES IN THE 40S
BUT SHOWS NO LIFT AND IS DRIER PRODUCING JUST ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
NWRN NEB FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS THE TIMING OF FORCING COULD BE IMPORTANT.

POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE 15 TO 30 PERCENT WHICH IS APPROPRIATE GIVEN
THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

OTHERWISE LOWS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
THE RAIN CHANCES AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FRIDAYS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A HEAT WAVE WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE
PARTIALLY FILLS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH JUST A
LONG WAVE TROF REMAINING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECM SHOVE THE DRYLINE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND 90S FOR HIGHS. THE GFS WAS
THE WARMEST WITH NEAR 100 SUNDAY. THE HOT WEATHER SHOULD LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE IN ONCE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS SO
LARGE THAT WARM AIR COULD CIRCULATE FROM THE NORTH SO ONLY A SLIGHT
COOLING WOULD LIKELY OCCUR IF A FRONT BACKED IN. HIGHS IN THE 90S
WOULD STILL BE ACHIEVABLE.

THE FORECAST IS DRY...A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE AND ANY
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THESE WILL MOVE INTO THE SANDHILLS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED SO HAVE LEFT OUT
OF TAF GROUPS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







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