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000
FXUS63 KLBF 241442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
942 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR MAINLY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS. BASED ON RAPID
CITYS UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL...LOWERED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE WINDS
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING ALSO. HOWEVER...WINDS
MAY DROP OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATED OTHER FIRE WEATHER
ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA INCLUDING HAINES...MIXING
HEIGHT...TRANSPORT WINDS...AND VENTILATION RATE/SMOKE DISPERSAL.
PUBLIC FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
LIGHTNING WAS AROUND 05Z. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
CLEARED FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. BIG WINNERS TONIGHT WERE GARFIELD
AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR TERM.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F DEGREES COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS HAVE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY BUT CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS. FULL SUN EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FRIDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 24/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE STORM NORTH...WITH A NEARLY STACKED H5/H7
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED INVOF NORTHEAST COLORADO OR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 00Z MONDAY 28TH APRIL. GEFS ALSO CLUSTERING A AN H5
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SAME AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE GEFS
ALL INDICATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW /NEAR 983MB/ IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WITH UNMODIFIED
RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SPELLS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS. THE
CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT...THAT WILL
IMPACT SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TONIGHTS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THIS DRY SLOT WOULD IMPACT PART OR ALL OF
THE NWS NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT
BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVING NETWORK. THEREFORE AM
HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK IN FUTURE RUNS...THEN
WILL HAVE TO WARM HIGHS AND CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED FROM THIS
LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES COULD
BE QUITE INTERESTING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST 24/00Z ECMWF DUMBBELLS
A SECOND UPPER LOW WESTWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...EVENTUALLY MERGING
THE TWO SYSTEM TOGETHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SENDING A LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KOGA P6SM SKC. SKIES WILL
CLEAR WEST OF A LINE FROM KONL TO KBBW THROUGH NOON CDT. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS. GARFIELD...WHEELER
AND SOUTHERN HOLT COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT IN FIRE ZONE 209 BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THAT ZONE WAS TRACE AMOUNTS OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA SAW A HUNDREDTH OR LESS OF
PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS YESTERDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP BUT FUELS ARE STILL FAVORABLE. LOOKING TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE BORDER IN WYOMING VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GUSTY TROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER. MINIMUM RH WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MAY FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE DAY 1 STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW RH BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...POWER