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000
FXUS63 KLBF 011729
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1129 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...MIDWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PINE RIDGE REPORTING 3SM -SN OVC035...CEILINGS ACROSS
WRN NEBR ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AT 8K-10K FEET AGL...WITH FLURRIES
UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES HOLDING FROM 15 TO 20 ABOVE BENEATH THE CLOUDINESS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IMPACTING WESTERN NEBRASKA THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL LOOSE ITS TIGHT GRIP. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
MODERATE TO -4C AT IML AND -9C AT ONL. MIXING DOWN THESE
TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 35 AT ONL...36 AT IML AND BBW TO 32
AT GORDON. THESE HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND. IF FACT THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
AND WERE USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY..WITH THE NCTRL BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATE MORNING...WITH SWRN NEBR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH NCTRL AND 5 TO
10 MPH SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA INTO SRN
CALIF. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...A BAND OF 125KT WINDS AT H3
WILL EXTEND FROM SRN CALIF...ACROSS UTAH...NRN CO...AND NEBRASKA.
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WAA AT H7 WILL ADVANCE
FROM ERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS
SUPPORTED ACROSS SWRN NEBR BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
NAM...00Z GEM AND 03Z SREF. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NCTRL TO THE UPPER TEEN TO NEAR 20 SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS
CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SW TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AMERICAN PRAIRIES...REACHING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE AT
ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THEREAFTER.  THE 01.00Z ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPRISE AT THIS POINT AS THE 00Z NAM IS ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.  REGARDLESS...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
NON-DIURNAL TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY MIDDAY.  DESPITE THE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE QPF FIELDS AS ALL
SEEM TO TARGET THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO BE SOLID AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF AND ARCS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY.  AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/S/...DPVA
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WORK ON UPGLIDE TARGETING THE
285-300K SURFACES.  ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.  AS OF NOW...A
CONSENSUS OF QPF WOULD SUGGEST UPWARDS OF A TENTH TO POSSIBLY TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  IT IS IN THIS
AREA WHERE THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO A PASSING 150KT ULJ WOULD
PROMOTE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES.  USING THE
HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST QPF...WOULD ONE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS /NW NEB./   FOR NOW...WILL UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW CHANCES
IN THE HWO...BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SNOW CHANCES ARE LESS
CERTAIN...SO WILL PREDOMINATELY KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR LESS FOR
NOW.  ONE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN.  THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVES WILL BE STRONG...WITH H8 TEMPS SHOWN TO BE IN EXCESS OF
5C AT KLBF MONDAY EVENING.  THE NAM IS LEADING THE CHARGE WITH THE
ZR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER IT IS SUSPECT AS IT IS DEEMED TOO COLD AT THE
SURFACE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LL WAA AND MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP ABOVE
0C INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA.  SO
FOR NOW...NO ZR WAS PLACED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  WILL GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THESE AREAS.

BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING...THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD MID-WEEK...BUT THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  RISING HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
KLBF AFTER 02/10Z...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY CREATE MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISBY. WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHER CONCERN FOR KLBF AND
KVTN AS GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 07Z RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM CONTINUED ON THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WITH
THE STAGE REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A
COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS
AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR 35 AT LEWELLEN TODAY AND 40 FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY AT
LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR. SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN BREAKING UP
THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG