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000
FXUS63 KLBF 250545 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65
TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS
LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES NEARING 3500 J/KG AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR
NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION MUST BE OVERCOME FIRST.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN AN ISOLATED FASHION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING. THESE STORMS ARE HIGH
BASED IN A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO THE WEST OF THE DRY
LINE. AIDED BY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE...THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EAST
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND UNORGANIZED AS THE AREA
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A BIT OF COOLING TO THE AREA FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE DRY LINE CROSSES THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT COMES
ACROSS THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED.

THE DRY LINE PRESSES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE
MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
MORE THAN 1.25 INCHES...SO MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EAST OF VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE. SINCE THE DRY LINE BULGE IS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY IS NOT
STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THE DRY LINE STALLS ON ABOUT A VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE LINE...
THE INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AT 40-50KT IS FAVORABLE AND SURFACE-BASED
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY EXCEEDS 5000J/KG. THE WINDOW FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NARROW...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
THE FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH.

AFTER THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS KVTN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z AND KLBF
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR
32014G21KT THEN VEER NORTH AND DIMINISH AFTER 18Z TO AOB 12KT. ONLY
A FEW CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTN FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER