Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 250838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Instability evident with showers and thunderstorms moving out of
northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle early this morning.
Thunder is decreasing with northward movement into cooler air aloft.
Hourly rainfall rates are impressive. With temperatures hovering
around 40 and evaporative cooling with showers could see some flakes
early this morning over the higher elevations of Sheridan county.
Will carry mostly rainshowers through the day with some isolated
thunder over southwest zones along and south of Interstate 80. Highs
today in the upper 30s northwest with 50s south. As upper low moves
into the northern plains surface gradients will tighten and winds
will increase. Some snow over northern zones tonight with little to
no accumulations with ground temperatures and lack of a saturated
column. Lows tonight will fall into the low 20s northwest with
temperatures around 30 over most of western Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

A brief dry spell comes midweek as weak high pressure builds into
the region. Despite plentiful sunshine on Wednesday, increased
northerly winds (gusts up to 30 mph) will result in cooler
temperatures to continue to impact the region as well. Expect high
temperatures to only rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

An active pattern returns to Nebraska for Thursday through the first
half of the weekend. A series of shortwaves off the Rocky Mountains
will force moisture and precipitation into the region. Heavy
rainfall is the biggest threat with these systems as close to an
inch of new rainfall is expected through Saturday. Severe potential
and thunderstorms chances are low at this time. There is also a
small chance of some snow mixing in with the rain. This will likely
be across the northern half of the forecast area and mainly during
the early morning hours as temperatures drop into the low 30s. The
forecast for snow will highly depend on how much cold air can filter
into the region. At this time, minimal accumulations are expected
with the greatest accumulation expected on Friday morning across the
Pine Ridge region where up to an inch is possible.

A developing system across the southern Plains on Saturday will then
allow one final precipitation chance on Saturday before high
pressure builds back into the region. Upper level ridging across the
western US will allow dry conditions to return on Sunday. Dry
weather will be accompanied by a warming trend as well for Sunday
and Monday. After several days of highs only in the upper 40s and
low 50s, temperatures will rise into the 50s and 60s on Sunday and


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Latest surface plot shows VFR conditions across western and
north central NEB. Meanwhile, latest radar loop shows returns
upstream over northeast CO and the NEB Panhandle indicative of
showers moving northeastward into the local forecast area, also
showers are moving east across eastern WY. Rainfall amounts have
been light. Showers expected across much of western NEB and the
Sandhills overnight. Confidence in thunder is low overnight thus no
mention in TAFs.

Ceilings are expected to deteriorate over the small hours into early
morning tomorrow to MVFR-IFR with lower ceilings expected across the
Sandhills and north. Tomorrow, sub-VFR ceilings are expected to
prevail for the most part with improvement to low-end VFR (less than
7 kft) expected to be confined to portions of southwest NEB.
Otherwise, winds increasing tomorrow and becoming more northerly
with peak gusts 20-25 kts in the afternoon/evening.




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