Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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868
FXUS63 KLBF 101744
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1144 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

H5 WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHARPENING THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST. NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH 100KTS-130KTS AT
250MB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WATCHING TEMPS CLOSELY TODAY AS VERY WARM AIR ALOFT...PER MORNING
KLBF SOUNDING...HOWEVER SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO MIX DUE TO THE
DEEP SNOW PACK. THE SNOW FREE AREAS WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL INTO
THE 50S...AND MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE...INTO THE 60S. THE
DEEPER SNOW PACK LIKELY TO HOLD HIGHS CLOSER TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DIVIDING COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS TO THE EAST
AND CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS IN THE 50S
WEST AND THE 40S EAST. TONIGHT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. AREA MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED
SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ON THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND READINGS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES. WILL RETAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT LIGHT QPF THERE.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INDICATE A
GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RATHER
THAN SNOW/RAIN AS THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW AND ONLY
INVADES THE DGZ FOR A SHORT WHILE. FRIDAY THE FRONT BACKS WEST
ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH DOWN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES
LATE IN THE DAY...SO READINGS OUT WEST MAY REACH ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. LIGHT QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS WEST ACROSS THE CWA.
SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE...SO -FZDZ MAY BE
A CONCERN UNTIL THE DGZ FINALLY SATURATES. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO QPF...SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS THE ARCTIC
HIGHS SETTLES OVER THE CORNBELT. A WARM FRONT HOWEVER WILL BE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL
KEEP LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS ON THE TRACK OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE FORCING...THE GFS IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT WE
CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER BEYOND SUNDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WIDESPREAD VFR WITH WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. TONIGHT A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IMPACTING
THE KVTN TERMINAL. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING MVFR CIGS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER IFR CIGS
AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
IMPACT AT THE TERMINAL SO NO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. DO NOT
EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBY TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST TO
IMPACT THE KLBF TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK



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