Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 130529 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

AT H5 LARGE CLOSED LOW IN CANADA JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NORTHEAST CONUS. HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THE NEAR TERM DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
OVER-ESTIMATED THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON WITH THE LACKING
PRECIPITATION...AND NOW INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF PROJECTED STORMS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS WILL CUT BACK POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK TODAY HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...IF
STORMS WERE TO FORM...WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT BE
EXPECTED.  PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED...SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD
BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY.

CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.  WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE SUN ON SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY...WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S BEING THE NORM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH STORMS POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT IDEAL...WITH
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT STEEP 0-3KM
LAPSE RATES ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLES IN.  A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT AT THAT WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN MID AND EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES
IN LIGHT OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
TEENS AND 20S C ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 1.4C ON THE CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY MORNING
12Z. WESTERN NEBRASKA TO RECEIVE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WITH
NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER NIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS IN THE
UPPER 40S WITH 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES
EXTREME SOUTHWEST. THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN BOTTOM OF UPPER TROUGH LYING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST MODELS TRYING TO PUSH
THE FRONT EAST AND POPS SEEM TO BE OVERDONE AT THE MOMENT. BELIEVE
COLDER AIR WILL PUSH FRONT WELL OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
LEFT DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS.
COOLER AIR MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE
80S AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
80S AND 90S SATURDAY. GENERALLY DRY UNTIL RETURN FLOW WITH UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDINESS MAY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND...SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT SIGNALING WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THUS...THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA IS FOR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY TO REMAIN WELL INTO THE VISUAL RULES RANGE. WIND WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE LATE IN THE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING 340-360 AT 8-12KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC






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