Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 041735
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HUDSON BAY
WITH RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CANADA. VERY PRONOUNCED
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS SEEN
IN IR... MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN PLAYER TODAY WILL BE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WYOMING AND
COLORADO. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST NORTHEAST TODAY CONVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
PWATS ABOVE AN INCH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ABOUT 125%
OF NORMAL. AS LOW MOVES CLOSER AND HEATING OF THE DAY. FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND
NEGATIVE TILT OF SYSTEM WILL BRING PROLONGED SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 80S. ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S WEST AND LOWER
60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WITH THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AT THE
SURFACE...WILL GO WITH A DRY DAY AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING LINGERING
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A FEW TSTMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE THE FRONT FROM ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
EWING TO BURWELL TO BROKEN BOW BY AROUND 4PM OR PEAK HEATING. VERY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SFC BASED CAPE NEAR 4500 J/KG
AND 30 TO 40 KTS OF 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP SEVERE
WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE. IT DOES APPEAR STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS
TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FORCING INCREASES.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...OVERALL UPPER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND NIGHTIME TSTMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD FOCUS ON TSRA
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VISBYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS OF 1730Z THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESIDES IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE
VISBYS TO LESS THAN 3SM AT TIMES. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE KLBF
TERMINAL...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS. FURTHER NORTH...LESS WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE KVTN TAF TO HIGHLIGHT
THE MOST LIKELY TIMING....GENERALLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

ATTENTION TONIGHT TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VISBYS.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND
IFR CIGS/VISBYS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE TAF AT KLBF.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN



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