Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 160614
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
114 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet, dry, and breezy this weekend as a backdoor cold front
sweeps through the area Saturday.

- With the mild and dry conditions persisting, elevated fire weather
concerns exist this weekend into the middle of the week.

- Temperatures rebound back into the above-normal range generally in
the 50s and 60s Monday through mid-week ahead of cooler temperatures
with an increased threat of precipitation to close out the week into
the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a near stationary
closed low pressure system spinning over the Desert Southwest.
Further northwest of this feature, upper-level high pressure was
pushing onshore over the Pacific Northwest. A potent upper-level
shortwave was dropping southeast out of Manitoba into the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered over
southwest Nebraska, extending across the northern and central
Plains. The upper-level system over Manitoba is vertically
stacked with surface low pressure noted with an attendant cold
front extending west-southwest, advancing towards the
US/Canadian border. Outside of some high clouds passing by,
clear skies prevail across western and north central Nebraska
this afternoon. As of 3 PM CT, temperatures ranged from 49 at
Imperial to 54 degrees at Ainsworth.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Saturday and Saturday night... As the aforementioned closed low
drops into southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes region, the
backdoor cold front will continue southward, knocking on northern
Nebraska come daybreak on Saturday. The front will continue to
advance across western and north central Nebraska through the day
with the intrusion of colder air behind the frontal passage expected
overnight on Saturday. However, high temperature Saturday will be
comparative to today ranging from the 50s to low 60s which is at or
slightly above normal for mid-March. A tightening surface pressure
gradient (SPG) will result in strengthening north
north/northwesterly winds encompassing the area during the day on
Saturday. Widespread gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour will be common
across the area with the strongest gusts up to 35 miles per hour
over north central Nebraska, coinciding with where the tightest
gradient is expected. These breezy winds begin to subside around
sunset as the Great Lakes surface low continues southeastward,
allowing the SPG to relax some. Meager cold air advection (CAA)
behind the front will be felt overnight Saturday with lows falling
into the 20s across the region.

Sunday and Sunday Night... Highs on Sunday will only climb into the
40s with the exception of far southwestern Nebraska where mid 50s
may be felt thanks to the frontal passage. North-northwest winds
increase again on Sunday as the SPG tightens between surface high
pressure nudging out of Canada and the low pressure system holding
strong over the northeastern US. While the probability of wind
gusts exceeding 40 miles per hour is non-zero, there is high
confidence (>85%) that the gusts observed will remain in the 25
to 35 miles per hour range during the day on Sunday. The
Canadian high centers over the northern Plains overnight on
Sunday with lows falling below normal into the upper teens.

With such breezy winds both Saturday and Sunday combining with
afternoon relative humidity values bottoming out in the 20 to 30%
range, fire weather concerns will remain elevated both days. At this
time it doesn`t appear that critical conditions will develop but
conditions will be closely monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The upper-level pattern for the start of the long term period will
be defined by an Omega Block. The stubborn closed low will continue
across the Desert Southwest with high pressure centering over the
Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin. On either side of these
features, troughing will be evident across the Gulf of Alaska into
the north Pacific and over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS.
As the upper-level ridge continues to build across the western
CONUS, temperatures rebound back into the 50s and 60s through
mid-week with the warmest temperatures anticipated on Wednesday
where highs in the upper 60s to low 70s appears likely across
the area. With limited moisture and unseasonably warm
temperatures, fire weather concerns will remain elevated through
Wednesday.

As we head into Thursday, quasi-zonal flow aloft will set up
with the upper-level low currently across the Desert Southwest
makes way across the southern Plains. Beyond this, considerable
differences amongst model solutions exists on the overall
synoptic flow heading into the weekend. Most guidance does hint
at the potential for a threat of precipitation returning across
the region, however, many questions remain unanswered being
nearly 7 days out resulting in low confidence at this time. One
thing that does stand out is that this system has the potential
to bring a notable cooldown compared to earlier in the week with
highs falling into the 40s or potentially colder. This in lies
the biggest question with this system, just how much polar air
will move southward out of Canada? Will need to continue to
monitor trends in the coming days with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A cold front will make it`s way south through the area early
this morning. Winds will shift to the north as the front passes.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail otherwise.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Taylor


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