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000
FXUS63 KLBF 201122 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD EXIT SOUTH AND EAST BY
DAYLIGHT...MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM THEN
DROP A SECOND BATCH OF RAIN AND SHOWERS SOUTH OUT OF WRN SD THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTN. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PRESUMABLY CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH A WEAKENING TREND.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW IF THE RAP AND NAM ARE CORRECT.
NEITHER INDICATE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM 750 MB ON UP AND THE
SFC BASED NAM THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY CHART IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

WINDS INCREASE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WEST WITH H850 WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KT. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
WERE THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH INCREASE TO AROUND
30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO FILL.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF NAM...GEMREG AND ECM PLUS BIAS
CORRECTION FOR HIGHS AND THE 50S AND 60S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ON TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A LOBE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DESPITE A MOIST PROFILE...LIFT WILL
BE VERY WEAK...MAINLY IN THE H850-H7 LAYER. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
NEAR 50 PERCENT FOR SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY AND FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NCTRL WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SWRN NEBR
IN THE MORNING. REGARDING WINDS...STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST FROM
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBR...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND
WILL REACH NEAR 25KT AND GUST NEAR 35KT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS
DUE TO DEEP MIX DOWN POTENTIAL WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST
WINDS EXTEND FROM THE SFC TO ABOVE 400 MB. THEREFORE A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF FORECAST WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK SIMILAR.
HIGHS WILL BE AFFECTED MOST BY CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS FROM 55-60
NCTRL TO NEAR 70 FAR SW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN IOWA...STILL SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SHOWERS TUES NIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO
BUILD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. CLEARING SKIES IN
THE WEST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO BRING COOLER LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 45 EAST. ONLY A MINOR
CHANGE TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM 62-66 NCTRL TO 67-73 SOUTH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH H85
DEWPOINTS FROM 12-15C AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESENCE
OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE REGION EACH NIGHT. HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THU-FRI WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MIXED VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. THE NAM
SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ACROSS NRN NEB. BEST
APPROACH WOULD BE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TO AS CONDITIONS ARE
MOSTLY VFR AND LOOK SIGNS OF DETERIORATION BEFORE ASSIGNING MVFR
TO THE KVTN TAF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CDC