Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 231128
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
528 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AT 08Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE OVER
CENTRAL IDAHO AND A PROMINENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE WAS ALSO A BROAD BAND OF
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. ALONG
AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. ANALYSIS OF THE 08Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EMANATING FROM A LOW IN
NORTHWEST ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL
LATE MORNING. THEN...CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN STATES. WITH CLOUDS OVER
NEBRASKA FOR HALF THE DAY...TEMPERATURE RISES WILL BE SUPPRESSED.
THEN...IN THE CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THERE ARE MINOR INCONSISTENCIES...MAINLY IN DETAILS
AND TIMING OF A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THESE IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE
MINIMAL.

VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM 1/22 SHOWED SNOWCOVER STILL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...MAINLY ACROSS SHERIDAN AND
WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES. ACTUAL SNOW DEPTHS ARE UNKNOWN IN THESE
AREAS...BUT ANALYSIS FROM NOHRSC WOULD SUGGEST 2-4 INCHES REMAINING
FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DETAIL THIS.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF THE PERIOD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
ALIGNMENT WITH THE TRACK...BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO MISSOURI BEFORE MOVING
EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WITH 850MB READINGS LOOKING TO RISE
TO ABOUT 3C TO 8C LOCALLY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO 850MB AND LOWER...HOWEVER LOOKING AT
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KLBF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE MIXED
LAYER HAS BEEN GENERALLY BETWEEN 800MB AND 700MB. CLOUDS SHOULD BE
ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WHICH MAY LIMIT THE MIXING
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WENT ON THE SIDE OF
PERSISTENCE AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE AREAS WITH SNOWCOVER. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THE LAYER...MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO KEEP THE RAIN
LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL PART OF NEBRASKA...AND INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE MORE FAVORABLE. AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING...THE
FAVORABLE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ALSO SHIFTS EAST...CENTERED
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA. CROSS-SECTIONS DO SHOW
MINIMAL LIFT STILL OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT SO OPTED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SPRINKLES RATHER THAN ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING WITH WINDS LOOKING TO INCREASE BEHIND
IT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY MIXED OVERNIGHT SO KEPT THE WARMER LOWS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR SUNDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE PRIOR SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 50S AS GOOD MIXING SHOULD NEGATE SOME OF THE IMPACT
FROM THE COOLER AIR. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO HELP MIX THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IF IN
FACT MIXING DOES OCCUR TO 800MB-700MB WINDS IN THAT LEVEL GO FROM
ABOUT 40-50KTS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SLIGHTLY LESS GOING WEST.
JUST HOW DEEP THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE IS IN QUESTION...BUT
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE SO DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FOR SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION WHICH ALLOWS RIDGING ALOFT TO START BUILDING EAST. THE AREA
STAYS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE THROUGH MONDAY AT LEAST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY DAYS AS WINDS ALOFT STAY
STRONGER. MONDAY AND TUESDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE WARM.
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT ARE AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MIXING
DOWN TEMPERATURES ALOFT /850MB READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
BETWEEN 11C AND 14C OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/ WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN
THE 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. DID INCREASE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR
THESE DAYS AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON A COUPLE OF VERY
WARM DAYS.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH
COLDER FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE COOLER AIR TRAILS THE SYSTEM AND MOVES
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

THEN FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH CEILINGS OF 9000 FEET AGL OR HIGHER.
THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH...CLEARING ONL-ANW-VTN-AIA BY
17Z AND BBW-LBF-IML BY 22Z. WIND WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G23-25KT BY 16Z...THEN DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LOWER THIS
EVENING ABOUT 00Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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