Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 210857
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR
THE FORECAST. UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH
CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN THE RING OF FIRE BETWEEN
FEATURES. ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING LOOKS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DISTURBANCE ON
SATELLITE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWERS TO END. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HIGHS TODAY AROUND 90 OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. TONIGHT SLIGHT
CHANCES RETAINED FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
NO MAJOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE...HOWEVER DIFFERENCE DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WITH RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH DEEPEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP THE PACIFIC MONSOON FLOW WITH POPS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...HOWEVER EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME CONCERNS ON
TEMPS AS CLOUDS COULD HOLD STRONG WITH NO BREAKS AND KEEP TEMPS
LOWER.

SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SW. WILL ALSO SEE LOW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN
LOW.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FROM RECENT
TRENDS...BRINGING WARMER AIR QUICKLY BACK TO THE REGION. THE GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT FORECAST AND THE
GFS...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE WARMER EC SOLUTION GETS ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING
CONVECTION COULD LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT EXITING BY 12Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY CAUSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN EXCEPT
THE MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SO POPS ARE ISOLATED LATE THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND
ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC





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