Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 141123 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND...
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY. LAPSE RATES FROM
850-700MB ARE STEEP AND MOIST BUT THE 850MB-SFC LAYER IS VERY DRY
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WHILE TEMPERATURE RISE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTN...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WITH BE
CLOSE TO THE GROUND AND THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SNOW FOR THE PTYPE. SO
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

NO MEASURABLE QPF WAS INDICATED IN THE RAP SOLN BUT THE HRRR
ACTUALLY SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SEVERAL STREAKS OF 0.01
QPF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H700MB AROUND -18C AT KVTN
WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR MID APRIL.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DRAW ANOTHER WEAK PIECE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
WRN HALF DEVELOPS SOUTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WARM AIR QUICKLY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH
H85 TEMPS RISING TO 8C TO 12C BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE RAISED LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM...NEARING 13C.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS THROUGH QUICKLY AS AN
OPEN WAVE...WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CROSSING THROUGH
NORTHERN KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHEST POPS /NEAR 40 PERCENT/
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OR WET SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS
POINT. CHILLY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY...AS MORE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
ADVERTISING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
TROUGH DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...AND THEN PERHAPS SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE PLAINS...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...AS THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE JUST STARTING TO LATCH ONTO THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THEN SOME THUNDER
MENTION WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SD/ND THIS AM MOVES THROUGH NCNTL NEB THIS
AFTN SPARKING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CONDITIONS.
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH VFR ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC






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