Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 020302
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
902 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UNLIMITED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT
08-10Z...CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10KT FROM 140-160 AND INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING (15-17Z) TO 17-20G27-30KT FROM 170-190.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...THE STAGE AT LEWELLEN ROSE TO 8.0
FEET...BUT IT HAS STABILIZED. THE CAUSE OF THIS RISE IS NOT
CLEAR...BUT IT COULD HAVE RESULTED FROM THE BREAKUP OF ANOTHER
JAM IN A TRIBUTARY OR UPSTREAM OF THE JAM WHICH WOULD RELEASE MORE
WATER INTO THE RIVER. IT WAS NOT DUE TO ANY PRECIPITATION. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...IF THERE ARE ANY OTHER JAMS UPSTREAM OR ON
TRIBUTARIES...A BREAKUP OF A JAM COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES AT
THE LEWELLEN GAGE. WITHOUT SUCH A SCENARIO... ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
NOT LIKELY. WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF A
BREAKUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER






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