Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 270426
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN. ELONGATED SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISS RVR
VALLEY. A STALLED BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM A LOW OVER MONTANA...THEN
MEANDERS SE INTO CENTRAL KS. ALSO A DISTINCT DRY LINE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO...WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE 30S AND 40S WITH TEMPS NEAR/ABOVE 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST
WILL BE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB...ALONG THE DRY
LINE. A COUPLE CU CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED...HOWEVER DEVELOPMENT IS
MINIMAL AND SHALLOW...SUGGESTING A CAP STILL IN PLACE. THE
NAM/GFS/EC KEEP THIS AREA QUIET...HOWEVER THE NEAR TERM RAP/HRRR IN
AGREEMENT A FEW ISOLD STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST
STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE DEVELOPED. HAVE A DRY FORECAST AT THE
MOMENT...THINKING THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THAT SAID...INVERTED V SOUNDING WEST OF THE DRY
LINE AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG STORM DEVELOPING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

NEXT FOCUS WILL BE FOLLOWING A COMBINATION OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
RIDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN S DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEB. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM A NOCTURNAL LL
JET. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOSE NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA
BORDER. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT EAST THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS FOCUSES ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

TOMORROW THE MAIN WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
SPEED FROM EARLIER RUNS. THIS WAVE HAS GOOD SUPPORT AND THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW WILL AID IN LIFT. MORNING CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL AS CAP IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT EARLY AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FROM SOME STRONG
STORMS. SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHS HOLD IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH COULD STILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING.

AFTER FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E. IN ADDITION...DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY IN THE THETA-E
RIDGE. ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING ACROSS THE STATE COULD BRING AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NEBRASKA NEBRASKA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE MOISTURE ON
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED TO PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION AND
PRETTY MUCH LIMIT IT TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN.
CURRENT COVERAGE IN NRN NEBRASKA IS TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT TSRA
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE KEPT A
TEMPO FOR 5SM -TSRA BKN080CB FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
FROM 21Z- 02Z/27TH. AFTER 02Z...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KVTN TERMINAL AFTER 03Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG


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