Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 220906
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
406 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST OF WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NRN
CALIFORNIA. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
EXTENDED NWD INTO NRN ALBERTA. FURTHER EAST...A TANDEM OF
SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER ONTARIO AND THE SECOND
OVER THE OZARKS. CURRENT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NICE PLUME OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES
ATTM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SWD INTO NRN KS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE WESTERN CWA.
SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER 50S NOTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 34
AT BROKEN BOW TO 48 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TEMPERATURES TODAY...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK
EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO
AND WYOMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH A NICE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12C IN
THE NORTHEAST...TO 24C IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.
FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
AS VERY FAVORABLE MIXING WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THIS LED TO FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
EAST...TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST. WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...FIRE DANGER WILL
BE EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
MODEL SOLNS INDICATE A MEAGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KS INTO
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NAM DEW POINTS
REACH THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FELT THIS WAS A
STRETCH GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MIXING TDY AND LIMITED DEW POINTS TO
THE MID 30S. EVEN WITH A DRIER FORECAST...MINIMUM RH`S BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS STILL TOO
HIGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
WILL EXTEND FROM WASHINGTON...TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECENT...THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ISOLATED AT BEST. ATTM...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST GIVEN TIMING OF EXPECTED
INITIATION AND THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY STORMS. WITH THIS
SETUP...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST.
THOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DECREASE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THERMODYNAMICS WEAKEN...IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE
50+KT LOW LEVEL JET AND DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A FOCUS WILL BE THE SFC COLD
FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL IN
QUESTION...WHICH CAUSES CONCERNS ABOUT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME WITH NW ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S...STILL WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC LOW OVER S DAKOTA IN THE MORNING AND COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING NEAR THE BORDER.
BETTER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEAT...AS
CAP WEAKENS. GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM
STILL IS ONE OF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH AREAS ALONG ANW TO IML
TO BE INITIATION. BETTER MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH AND IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER KS/OK/TX FIRST SOME OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE CUT OFF WITH MORE ISOLD THAN SCT ACTIVITY.
EITHER WAY WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT AND SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

BEHIND THE FRONT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AGAIN
MOISTURE MAY BE TO MEAGER TO DEVELOP ANY ACTIVITY WITHIN THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX. AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST WITH
CLEARING SPREADING EAST.

THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND
10C. FORECAST FOLLOWS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY TO HELP MIX. FRONT IS A PACIFIC FRONT WITH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S...MAYBE STILL 70 IN THE FAR SW.

FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ITS
WAKE SOME COLDER AIR IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN SOUTH. HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT FROM THE SW CONUS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A COOLER TREND AS COLD CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO
SPREAD SOUTH...EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND FAVORS SOME SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH
NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE LOW
WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHTER QPF AMOUNT EVENT. ALSO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND FOR LOWS AND COLUMN WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS 0 TO -5C. CLIMATOLOGICALLY
LOOKING...THIS WILL BE ONLY A FEW DAYS FROM MAY...WHICH IS
UNCOMMON BUT NO RARE. EVEN LAST YEAR WE RECORDED SNOW OVER THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY AT KVTN AND KLBF
TERMINALS. SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. WINDS TO INCREASE TO 17020G30KT BY 18Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AFTER 02Z TO BE 15015G25KT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE MAY MOVE NEAR
THE KLBF TERMINAL TOWARD 03Z AND INTRODUCED VCTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG





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