Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 271747
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM NICELY BEHIND A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE EASTERN PANHANDLE HAS ALREADY
REACHED INTO THE 50S...WITH 30S AND A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
AREAS ALONG THE 83 CORRIDOR TO SEE LATE HIGHS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS STILL LOOKING FOR 60S ALONG AND
WEST OF 83...WITH A NARROW BAND OF 50S ALONG THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ONLY 40S TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. ALSO GOING TO SEE
A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCT VFR CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
EXPECTING VFR/MVFR STRATUS. CIGS GENERALLY IN THE OVC015 TO OVC035
RANGE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXPECTING BKN TO SCT CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB. BEHIND THE FRONT AN ABRUPT
CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
DUE TO DECOUPLING OF THE BL. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS PICKUP OUT OF
THE SW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC





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