Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 302059
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STALL BOUNDARY...SEEN ON RADAR NORTH AND EAST OF KLNX...STRETCHED
ACROSS THE CWA SEPARATING LOWER TO MID 90S FROM LOWER TO MID 80S. A
FEW RETURNS ON THE COOL SIDE ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT
TO THE ACTIVITY AND NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW /INBETWEEN/ ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN TONIGHT...SEPARATED BY A NW TO SE STALLED
BOUNDARY. TO THE EAST/COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...A BAND OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ANALYZED AT 2000 J/KG PLUS. SOME WEAK
ECHOES ON RADAR SO FAR...BUT EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
NEAR TERM MODELS...HRRR/RAP/NAM IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT.
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.50 INCHES SO SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MEANWHILE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...A MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER EXISTS. MODELS VERY LIMITED WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEST...PRIMARILY NORTHWEST. BETTER ACTIVITY TO THE NW OF THE CWA
IN THE HILLS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS DO
TO THE NICE INVERTED V SOUNDING.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE DIMINISHED...OR PUSHED
EAST. DEPENDING ON CONVECTION ACTIVITY WILL BE KEY TO WHERE THE
BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO. MODELS IN GENERALLY PUSH IS TO THE SOUTH WHICH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...WHILE SIMILAR ACROSS
THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHEAST NEB FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL...INCLUDED SOME LOW
POPS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015


A DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NRN MT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NWRN NEBR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE NAM MODEL OVER THE FASTER
GFS. AFTER AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY MID-LATE AFTN ALONG
THE FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW DUE TO EXPECTED MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT
AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. IN FACT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE
UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 85 FAR SW. POPS UP TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWERING TO ABOUT 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.


FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSISITON TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN PRESENT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATE THE
FRONT WILL STALL MONDAY ACROSS NRN KS WITH THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
CONTINUING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS WARMER FROM 85 TO 90 THIS
WEEKEND LOWER SLIGHTLY TO 82 TO 86 DEGREES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHIFTS EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF AN KVTN TO KBBW LINE. CHANCES
DIMINISH IN THE MORNING.

THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW GREATLY
DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY
TOWARDS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO
NO MENTION IN THE TAF YET.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK











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