426
FXUS63 KLBF 112052
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
352 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening
  and tonight across portions of southwest into north central
  Nebraska. Damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall are
  the primary threats.

- Drier conditions prevail into the weekend, with cooler
  temperatures (highs in upper 70s to low 80s) on Saturday
  afternoon.

- An approaching cold front brings a returning threat for
  showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and into midweek, along with
  cooler temperatures (highs in 70s to low 80s) for Wednesday
  and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Currently, a cold front is pushing south across the Sandhills,
located from near Oshkosh to Thedford to Spencer. Ahead of this
boundary, cumulus development has largely been limited, with the
exception across far northeastern CO, where better surface
convergence is noted. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
will be possible ahead of this front over the next few hours, across
portions of southwest into north central Nebraska. Deep layer shear
weakens with easterly extent into central and north central Nebraska
ahead of the front, and this looks to keep updraft organization
limited. Still, a strong to briefly severe storm is possible should
storms form, with hail and strong winds as the main threats. Further
west, stronger deep layer shear should promote better updraft
organization and longevity across portions of southwest Nebraska.
Multicells or even a supercell or two cannot be ruled out here, and
would present a threat for large hail and damaging winds.

By late this evening and tonight, more widespread thunderstorm
coverage is expected, as storms (currently forming along the Laramie
Range) push east into the southern Panhandle and southwest Nebraska.
This appears to present the greatest risk for severe weather
locally, with an increasing threat for damaging winds as storms grow
upscale. These storms will also lead to a threat for locally heavy
rainfall, with PWAT values approaching the 90th percentile climo.
Rainfall rates near and briefly exceeding 1"/hr are expected in the
strongest storms tonight. Some threat for localized flooding could
develop, but with the progressive nature of storms believe this
threat will remain limited. Thunderstorms then exit the area to the
south and east by sunrise Saturday morning.

Cooler and drier conditions are then expected to prevail Saturday in
the wake of the cold front. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to
low 80s Saturday afternoon, amid light winds and sunny skies as
surface high pressure pushes through.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Southerly flow strengthens Sunday, boosting highs back into the
upper 80s to low 90s. Heights rise aloft Sunday into Monday, as
upper ridging establishes over the Four Corners. This will keep the
dry conditions in place through Monday morning, before flow begins
to transition zonal across the Northern Plains Monday night. A
more active weather regime then returns for Tuesday and into
midweek, as an upper trough crosses the northern Plains. At
least scattered thunderstorm chances will exist each day Tuesday
through Thursday, though the threat for severe weather is
uncertain for now. In the wake of a cold frontal passage
Tuesday, much below average temperatures are ushered into the
area again, with highs in the 70s to low 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday. As upper ridging establishes across the western CONUS
into next weekend, northwest flow establishes across the Plains.
This points towards a return of active weather, and will need
to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Cumulus development across northern Nebraska this afternoon
could lead to brief periods of MVFR CIGs. In addition, wildfire
smoke could also lead to brief MVFR visibilities for a couple of
hours this afternoon for northern Nebraska terminals.

By this evening, thunderstorms will increase in coverage across
the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, leading to brief MVFR
visibilities and gusty, erratic winds as they quickly move east
across the area. These storms will exit after Midnight CDT,
with some threat for low stratus development in their wake for
southwest Nebraska terminals.

Winds remain gusty from the north this afternoon, with gusts of
20 to 30kts expected. Winds then become light tonight, at less
than 5kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown