Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 240522 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1122 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Issued at 302 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

H5 analysis this morning had a high anchored over
northern portions of Baja California. A ridge extended north
northeast from this feature into southern portions of the NW
Territories of Canada. Downstream of this feature, low pressure was
located over southern portions of Hudson Bay with a trough of low
pressure extending south into the Gulf of Mexico. Upstream of the
high, a shortwave trough of low pressure extended from off the coast
of British Columbia, southwest into the eastern Pacific. WV imagery
this afternoon has a nice plume of subtropical moisture extending
from California into the central and southern Rockies. This moisture
has made it as far east as the central and southern plains. Dew
points today have reached the lower 40s which is uncommon given the
westerly surface winds today. As the surface, Low pressure was
located over Alberta with a warm front extending southeast into
eastern North Dakota and Minnesota. South of this front, record or
near record temperatures were present across western and north
central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 3 PM CST ranged from 70 at
Gordon to 75 at Valentine.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Upper level ridging continues to dominate the weather across the
central plains. Near record highs were observed today, with North
Platte just setting a new record of 73 degrees. An Alberta Clipper
system will quickly track across southern Canada tonight, with a
cold front diving south across the area in it`s wake. This will
bring a windy day Friday, but with warm air lingering aloft, expect
a quick rise in temperatures Friday morning into the 60s before
steading off by midday and slowly falling by later Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Friday night through Sunday: High pressure will build
into western Nebraska Friday night, then Kansas on Saturday. Lows
will bottom out in the lower 20s Friday night with light westerly
winds and mostly clear skies. Temperatures will rebound back into
the mid to upper 50s for Saturday, which will pale in comparison to
highs on Friday. However, the mid 50s for highs is still 10 to 15
degrees above normal for this time of year. High pressure will build
into the lower Missouri valley Saturday night. At the same time, a
trough of low pressure will deepen along the front range of Wyoming,
and Colorado. Southwesterly and westerly winds will push warmer air
into western Nebraska Sunday with H85 temps reaching the lower to
middle teens. Highs Sunday will range from around 60 in the
northeast, to around 70 in the far southwest.

Monday through Thursday: A strong cold front will approach the
Central Plains late Monday. Ahead of the front, H85 temps will surge
into the high teens to near 20C. The latest ECMWF has slowed the
frontal passage to Monday Night, while the GFS has slowed it to
around 00z Tuesday. With the models trending slower with the front,
boosted highs Monday afternoon, to bring them more in line with the
latest MEX guidance. That being said, highs Monday will reach the
lower 70s, and may touch the mid 70s in the far southwest which will
result in record or near record highs across the forecast area.
ATTM, the cold front is on track to push through the forecast area
Monday evening. Mid level lift will increase behind the front Late
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Right now, this lift is most
focused across the west and southwestern forecast area and will
paint some low pops in the west and southwest late Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Will keep pops in the low end however, as we will
have a decent amount of dry air below 10000 FT AGL Monday night. By
the time the column saturates, the strongest mid level lift shifts
south of the area midday Tuesday so will keep pops on the light
side. The threat for pcpn will end midday Tuesday, however, it will
be cold with highs in the middle 40s. Temperatures will warm back
into the 50s for Wednesday. A cold front will pass through the
forecast area Wednesday night with 40s expected for Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Mid and high clouds will continue to stream across the Rockies
and through wrn and ncntl Neb. A strong cold front will move
through the area Friday with winds increasing to 33023G33KT (17Z-
23Z) Friday afternoon.




LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.