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000
FXUS63 KLBF 310854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST...WHILE THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEST. THIS PLACES THE HIGH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RADAR RETURNS OVER EASTERN S
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN N DAKOTA. OVER THE CWA SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SEASONAL...AROUND 60 FOR 3 AM OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TRACKING THE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
FIRST WAVE ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR AND THE NAM DO DEVELOP SOME
ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBLY WESTWARD EXPANSION AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO SHOW SOME NARROW
INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE TAPPED THIS MORNING...LOW POPS INCLUDED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE SECOND WAVE /ACROSS N DAKOTA/ WILL ALSO TREK TO THE SE...AND HAS
THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING N CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS SHEAR IS MARGINAL. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD AID IN A DECENT
CU FIELD AND THE WAVE WILL ADD THE LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS N CENTRAL. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...IN THE
80S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS N CENTRAL AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
KEEP THINGS COOLER.

ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

12Z FRIDAY AND BEYOND. PERIODIC LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF WIDESPREAD QPF IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK FADES...THUS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF THAT
FAR OUT IS LOW.

WESTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
BEING THE NORM.  THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING LIGHT QPF FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
BUT AGAIN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL ONLY
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.  FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT
WEEK...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY.   THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BREAKDOWN
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE ALLOWING A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY ALOFT AND
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORCED ATOP THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
AT LEAST SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING POP CHANCES AS HEIGHTS
DECREASE.  THE ALLBLEND MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD 30-40 POPS...WHICH IS
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT.  STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE TROPOSPHERIC STABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES.  SEVERE WEATHER IS IN QUESTION...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GARDEN VARIETY STORMS IN THE
HWO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
BEYOND WILL BE IMPACTED BY A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND THE INFLUENCE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS/SHOWERS.  HIGHS IN THE 80S
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERHAPS PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC