Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 150533
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1133 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

An Arctic front is rapidly progressing south across the high plains
today and bringing light snow back forecast area.  The front should
largely be south of the cwa by 00-03z this evening.  The models are
generating weak lift with the front, with rapidly cooling.  Rain
changing over to snow is likely as the front drops south.  Will
retain high end chance to likely POPs for much of the forecast, but
rapidly decrease those values behind the front.  The models do show
the front hanging up over the higher terrain to the west, so its
conceivable to see the highest snow totals over our far western
counties, but even still, an inch of accumulation is not likely.
Tonight, weak lift associated with strong jet max and saturation in
the DGZ will provide for additional light snow or more than likely
flurries across the cwa.  Strong subsidence will put an end to any
snow mention after 12z Monday with clearing skies.  With Arctic air
in place, temperatures will fall below zero across northern
Nebraska, but stay in the low teens across our far southwest where
clouds remain for much of the night.  Temperatures remain cold for
Monday with anticipated highs in the single digits and teens.
Northerly winds will persist from 15 to 25 mph overnight and
tomorrow for most areas. This will cause wind chill values to fall
to around 20 below across much of north central Nebraska by 12z. A
wind chill advisory has been issued beginning 10z tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Mid and long range models are in better agreement today and have
better confidence in the mid week forecast as a result. Closed low
centered over Quad Cities Monday evening will continue to affect the
northern plains Monday night into Tuesday morning. Cold temperatures
in the 10 to 15 below zero range will create dangerous wind chills
and will add southeast Nebraska Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. As
the ridge to the west expands east into the high plains temperatures
will warm with dry conditions. Highs Tuesday in the teens and 20s.
Relatively warmer Wednesday night with light southwest flow but
clear skies and snow cover will keep temperatures in the single
digits above zero.

Ridge holds through the day on Wednesday with highs in the 30s and
40s. May be some fog over night as southerly flow continues but
increasing clouds with a strong wave topping the ridge and moving
across the Dakotas Wednesday night and through the day Thursday.
Right now looks to be dry but will have to be watched. Fairly strong
down slope winds will aid in temperature recovery on Thursday with
temperatures in the upper 40s. Thursday night mild with lows in the
20s. Colorado low developing Friday as upper trough to the west
approaches. Temperatures climb into the low 50s ahead of this
system. Low continues to deepen Friday night into Saturday with snow
developing to the northwest and spreading to the east through the
day with a mix over southwest Nebraska and snow north of Interstate
80. As colder air filters in Saturday night all snow. Lows in the
teens Saturday night as Pacific modified air moves in. Upper trough
hangs around through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Lingering snow showers will continue to move southward out of the
region by early Monday morning. Snow has ended at both KVTN and
KLBF, with just a vicinity snow shower expected for the next
couple hours near KLBF. Gradual clearing skies are expected at
both terminals over the next several hours. Otherwise, the main
story will be increasing northerly winds. Sustained winds will
remain near 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots at both TAF
sites through Monday. Winds will not diminish until after sunset
on Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Monday to noon CST
/11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-
069>071-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jacobs
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Kulik


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