Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 240922
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
322 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...GFS SOLUTION SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN NAM SOLUTION AND HAVE USED A BLEND FOR PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOME FOR SNOW COVER WITH MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND
FROM OGALLALA TO CURTIS. TONIGHT FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING OR MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BUT NOT A REAL
CLEAR SIGNAL AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FROM SPRINGVIEW TO BURWELL AND NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SEE MAINLY A DUSTING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  UPGLIDE TARGETING THE 280-295K LAYER
IS ENHANCED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST FGEN SUPPORT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
SNOW WILL BE MEASURABLE...BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 INCH RANGE AS QPF AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW AN ADDITIONAL UPGLIDE AREA SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OFF TO OUR WEST.  THE GREATEST FGEN
IS TIED CLOSE TO THE FRONT RANGE...THUS ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.  SO ALL IN ALL...THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SEEING LESS THAN A FEW TENTHS AT MOST.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP FORCE A BAROCLINIC ZONE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY....BRINGING A STARK COOLDOWN TO THE
REGION.  HIGHS WILL BE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  H85
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO FALL IN THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...IF NOT SUB-ZERO.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION OCCURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...GOING LOWS IN THE MINUS 5 RANGE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.  SOLID MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WHEN FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS/DPVA IS IN
PLACE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT WOULD FAVOR SNOW.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WHAT THE CR-INIT PRODUCED...WHICH BASICALLY SUGGESTS
40 PERCENT POPS OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE FA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH IS REASONABLE GIVE MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SCT-BKN100-250 SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA.

THE MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL DRIFT INTO
NRN NEB AROUND 12Z AND AFFECT AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 20...FROM KVTN
EAST. THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT TO VFR 15Z- 18Z AND RETURN
FROM 00Z ONWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEB.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC














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