Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
418 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows a mix of mid and high level clouds
streaming northward over western and north central NEB. Water
vapor imagery shows cyclonic flow across California spreading east
to the Northern and Central Plains with an amplified trough
moving onshore the West Coast. Highs will be similar to a few
degrees cooler than yesterday with values 14-18 degrees above
seasonal normal values  largely mid-upper 70s.

Decent moisture delivery today via Gulf moisture transport with
surface dewpoints rising to the 50s outside extreme western NEB
with mid 50s expected in portions of north central NEB. Large
scale trough moves east to the Northern Rockies to Central Great
Basin-Central Rockies today. Meanwhile, modest 500 hPa ht falls
persist today and tonight overhead. Increasing southerly breezes
today as surface trough sharpens with breezy winds east of the
trough, outside the eastern Panhandle and far southwest NEB.
Strongest gusts across north central NEB peaking largely 35 MPH.
Favorable setup for momentum transfer with upper level winds
mixing down. Mean mixed-layer winds of 25+ kts covering an
appreciable portion of the forecast area outside the
aforementioned areas near the trough. Overnight, a surface cold
front will advance east across the area mid-late evening through
early morning tomorrow. Meanwhile, winds stay elevated overnight.
Increasing northwest winds are expected over the western-third of
the local forecast area through the small hours. Increased
precipitation chances largely after midnight with the best chances
over northeast NEB and the northeast Panhandle. Of which,
instability sufficient for mention of thunder in portions of north
central NEB.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

More wind expected Saturday in the wake of the cold front. NAM
indicates 30 to 40 kt H85 winds behind the front during the morning
hours, gradually weakening during the afternoon. Well mixed boundary
layer and CAA should lead to breezy or locally windy conditions for
at least the first half of the day. Showers are also possible,
especially across northwest Nebraska during the morning, where
favorable jet dynamics will be located. Have increased pops a bit,
as soundings indicate enough moisture to allow any precipitation to
make it to the surface. Some lingering mid level instability across
far eastern north central Nebraska, where a few rumbles of thunder
are possible with any shower during the morning.

Skies quickly clear and winds rapidly decouple Saturday night. Drier
air in place, along with the clear calm conditions will allow for a
chilly night as lows drop into the lower 30s. Could be some isolated
upper 20s in river valleys etc.

Downslope warming winds expected Sunday with highs climbing back
into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Then cooler Monday as a cold
front moves across the region. A secondary cold front will usher in
even cooler air Tuesday with highs only in the 50s. A brief warm up
Wednesday followed by a strong cold front and much cooler again for
Thursday. Not much chance for precipitation with northwest to north
flow aloft due to deep upper trough across the Great Lakes region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

High clouds will continue to filter into western Nebraska over the
next 24 hours with skies scattered to broken in coverage. There
will be a threat for low level wind shear overnight with southerly
winds up to 45 KTS 2000 FT AGL. Corresponding surface winds will
be around 10 KTS at the KLBF terminal and 15 KTS at the KVTN
terminal. Winds will increase Friday morning and will gust in the
20 to 30 KT range on Friday. Winds will diminish slightly Friday
evening to around 15 KTS.




LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.