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000
FXUS63 KLBF 141536 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1036 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NEBRASKA FIRE ZONES
206...208 AND 209 FROM NOW THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.  COLD FRONT IS
SLOWING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
SOAR IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.  AS OF 15Z KONL IS ALREADY
REPORTING 90F...WITH KANW AND KTIF NOT TOO FAR OFF AT 85 AND 84
RESPECTIVELY.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THUS WILL TREND
UPWARD. CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT GIVEN A FAVORABLE
FIRE WEATHER PATTERN /BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE/...EXPECTED
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAINES INDEX OF 6...AND A MENTION OF DRY
STORMS...ALBEIT WIDELY SCATTERED...FELT THAT A RFW WAS NEEDED TO
BEST SERVE OUR CUSTOMERS...ESPECIALLY SINCE GREENUP HAS BEEN SLOWED
BY THE COOL/DRY SPRING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY NOON TODAY. IT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL BUT FRONTIER COUNTY
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY...WITH LOW/MID 90S AGAIN IN THE FORECAST. DO HAVE
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT...IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE WILL AGAIN BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA WILL STAY CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE CAP WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK MID AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY BELOW 600MB WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. LOOKS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF TOWERING CUMULUS TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN PROBLEM
WILL BE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUSTAIN DEVELOPMENT AND STORM
GROWTH. ACTUAL COVERAGE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
ISOLATED IN AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
INVERTED-V DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM ANY
STORMS. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
DRY LIGHTNING INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS WEST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH BURWELL. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS HIGH AS 500-1000 J/KG
AVAILABLE AT 06Z WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS. LOWS FORECAST MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON STALLS ACROSS KS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING IN THE 70S. NEAR 80 IS POSSIBLE THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THOUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS HIGHER DEW PTS SURGE NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS OR SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING IN A FAVORABLE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN. BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC TEMPS IN
THE 80S...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DRY LINE ALSO WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY AFTERNOON INVOF HWY 61...OR ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
IMPERIAL TO OGALLALA TO NEAR GORDON. DECENT MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND BOTH THE 14/00Z RUN OF THE NAM AND ECMWF
DEVELOP CONVECTION AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE 14/00Z GFS WAS DISCARDED DUE TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ACROSS NORTHWEST KS. THE NAM FOCUSES THE INITIAL CONVECTION
ON THE NOSE OF VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY LINE...AND THEN PROPAGATES THE CONVECTION EAST
SOUTHEAST THOUGH THE HEART OF WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET. THIS SEEMS
LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION. FEEL THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DECENT SHEAR
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN THE EVENING.
ALSO...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY BRINGS MORE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...AS THE DRY LINE STAYS
ANCHORED ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...PERHAPS EVEN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD
KEEP WINDS BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LOCKING
IN THE BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE...WITH AGAIN A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
NOT BEING RULED OUT.

SATURDAY STANDS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...AS BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WIND FIELD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. NOT EXACTLY SURE
WHERE THE BEST FOCUS/BOUNDARIES WILL RESIDE AT THIS POINT...MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THAT PRIOR BOUTS OF CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT THIS
POINT WOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF A VALENTINE TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD HAVE
ENDED BY SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE 80S EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TAF PERIOD. SCT120 BKN250
CLOUDINESS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NRN NEB THIS MORNING AND
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS AT KVTN WILL INCREASE
TO 34014G20KT AFTER 18Z...DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WIND AT KLBF TO
REMAIN AOB 10KT.

AFTER 21Z THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB MAINLY WEST OF
KVTN AND KTIF. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS REACHING 45KT IN ISOLATED STORMS...IF
THEY DEVELOP. NO INCLUSION IN KLBF TAF ATTM...WITH COVERAGE TOO
ISOLATED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

A FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
TO NEAR RECORD READINGS WITH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SLOW WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE AND SWITCH TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MAY BECOME GUSTY. IN ADDITION...A DRY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT WITH
OCCASIONAL DRY LIGHTNING. THE HAINES INDEX IS FORECAST TO BE A 6
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES
206...208 & 209.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS