Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 272030
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms pivoting around
an upper level low pressure system are expected through the
remainder of the afternoon and into early evening. Thunderstorms
have been struggling to develop all day and the risk of severe
weather is quite low. However, will continue to monitor the
environment throughout the late afternoon and early evening for
any severe storm development. Heavy rain and small hail will be
the major concern in any thunderstorms tonight. Otherwise, rain
showers will slowly come to an end by early morning and overnight
lows will drop into the mid- 40s to low 50s.

For Saturday, the upper level low will push eastward, and with it
any chances for rain showers will move out of the area. Clouds will
stick around though most of the day across the eastern CWA with
clearing skies across the west by noon Saturday. Temperatures reach
up into the low to mid 70s across the entire CWA, making for a
fairly pleasant start to the holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Saturday night through Monday...the models continue to show rain
chances dropping to isolated coverage or less Saturday night through
Sunday morning. Another upper level disturbance appears to be
lifting northeast through the fcst area Sunday afternoon. Daytime
heating and the disturbance will probably produce scattered storm
coverage...mainly across Swrn and Ncntl Neb. This area will be
nearer to the moisture return and dynamics.

Storm activity decreases late Sunday night and resumes on Monday
with the approach of a disturbance dropping into the Nrn Rockies.
Pops are in the 40 to 50 percent range Monday as moisture return
continues. The increase in moisture and expected cloud cover Monday
suggests highs in the mid to upper 70s. This temperature forecast
uses blended model data plus bias correction.

High temperatures using blended model data plus bias correction
Sunday produces highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This is very
close to the same process using 4 guidance data sets.

Monday night through Friday...the models continue to track a closed
upper low through the nrn Plains this week. The 12z ECM is faster
and deeper than the GFS which is slower and farther south. This
could be related to moisture return as the GFS seems to be very
proficient drawing moisture rapidly north. The faster ECM is quick
to send dry air through the fcst area erasing rain chances after
Monday night. The GFS ensemble is the slowest and continues rain
chances into Wednesday. The forecast continues rain chances of 30
percent or greater Monday night through Tuesday night with isolated
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and beyond.

A blend of the deterministic models plus bias correction produces
highs in the mid 60s Wednesday...the coolest day and a few degrees
cooler than the operational forecast. Otherwise highs should rise
into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue throughout the afternoon. Rain showers will result in a
reduction in visibilities and a lowering of ceilings. Expecting
showers to move out of the region tonight with the potential of
some light fog developing behind the rain showers especially near
the KLBF terminal. Tomorrow looks dry across both terminals with
overcast skies around 7000 feet.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Flooding along the North Platte River at North Platte will continue
to rise through the weekend and with water levels holding steady at
around 6.9 feet by early Saturday morning. Although major flooding
is not anticipated at this time, increased water releases could
result in the North Platte River at North Platte to rise above 7.0
feet (major flooding). At this time, the water levels on the South
Platte River are not expected to reach flood stage, however, the
levels will remain high. Minor flooding is also expected along the
main branch of the Platte River near Brady as a combination of
increased flows on both the North and South Platte rivers will
cause water levels to rise.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik
HYDROLOGY...Kulik



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