Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 260832
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON  CURRENT WEATHER WITH UPPER WAVE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS ISOLATED TRW MOVING NORTH WHEELER
HOLT COUNTIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OVER CHERRY
SHERIDAN COUNTIES MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED
IN THE NAM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT FORECAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. HAVE CUT TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER NIGHT
TO THE WEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES APPROACHING WESTERN NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RETAINED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. LOWS
TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SHOVING THE RIDGE FROM TUESDAY TO
THE EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE CWA
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. FORCING
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK...SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EVENT WITH STORMS CARRIED EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN 300MB FLOW OF
ONLY 25 KTS. EXPECTING ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT
THIS TIME...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. LEE SIDE TROUGH PUSHES EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS
THE AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RECEIVES A LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM THE GULF
AND A STREAM OF MOISTURE ALOFT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISE PWATS APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE PUSHING THE
UPPER LIMIT OF LOCAL CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN FROM THE ONSET OF CONVECTION
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS JUNCTURE. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKLY
FORCED/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER FRIDAY AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/EC HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ADVERTISE A
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND FOR THE SANDHILLS REGION
UNDERNEATH SYNOOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT KLBF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 11Z...THEN FROM 11Z-14Z
5SM BR OVC015...AFTER 14Z...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY
16Z.

AT KVTN...MVFR CEILING TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...THEN 09Z-13Z 3SM
BR SCT009 OVC015. MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 13Z SHOULD BECOME VFR BY
15Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH UPSTREAM
RELEASES. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD
MOST OF TE UPSTREAM RELEASES. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING
UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME
WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...POWER






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