Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170903
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
303 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Some patchy freezing drizzle making slick roadways over northwest
Nebraska according to road reports. Reporting stations void of
weather reports. Some fog with visibilities around 3sm over the
southern Nebraska Panhandle. Western Nebraska covered in stratus but
winds are not decoupling and dew point spreads are 3 to 7f. Freezing
temperatures to the west of a Merriman to Oshkosh line. Will drop
fog from the forecast this morning. Cloudy skies will continue
through the day with ceilings slow to rise and at that only a couple
of degrees. Highs today only around 40. Winds will shift to the
southwest this afternoon. This is about the first time in 3 or four
weeks that we have had a southerly component to the wind. Skies
clearing late this afternoon from northwest to southeast over the
forecast area. Light southwest to west flow to continue over night
and will temper the low temperatures. Lows tonight in the teens
along the Platte river Valley and in the low 20s over the remainder
of western Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Little changes have been made to the beginning part of the extended
period as high pressure will continue to remain over the region on
Monday. This high will slowly slide southeastward by Tuesday and
Wednesday. However, dry weather will persist through Wednesday.
Temperatures return into the low to mid 50s through Wednesday.
Tuesday still is expected to be slightly cooler with highs ranging
from the mid 40s across the north to the low 50s across the south.

The main weather concern for the next week is still the upper level
trough moving through the central US on Thursday. Current model runs
show a slightly weaker system moving through central Nebraska. This
will result in lower precipitation amounts. As such, have lowered
snow totals by about an inch to reflect the weaker and drier models.
The best chance for the heaviest snowfall still looks to be in the
late Thursday morning to late Thursday afternoon timeframe. New snow
totals will range from 1 to 2 inches for most locations.

With temperatures well below freezing on Thursday (highs in the mid
teens to mid 20s), precipitation type will be all snow for the
majority of the event. Any wintry mix with this system will be
confined to the start of the event where temperatures will briefly
be above freezing. Precipitation change-over to all snow will be
quick as temperatures plummet and therefore any wintry mix will not
result in many impacts. Will continue to keep an eye on this system
in the coming days to get a better handle on the timing and snowfall
accumulation amounts.

Surface high pressure briefly builds back into the region on Friday
with dry and cool conditions returning for the end of the week.
Temperatures only rise into the upper 20s to low 30s on Friday and
only into the mid teens to mid 20s on Saturday. The next chance of
precipitation track across the Panhandle on Saturday brushing
portions of our western and southwestern forecast area. Will hold
off on any details for this system at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

The Rapid Refresh models, the RAP and HRRR, suggest the better
chances for LIFR in very low cigs and -S/FZDL/FG will be across
Swrn Neb...south or along and south of I-80 where CIGS are lowest
at this time. Flight conditions are expected to improve from
15-17z Sunday onward with VFR generally expected Sunday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC



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