Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 172310
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE UPPER PATTERN HAS TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  TWO TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED AT 500MB THIS
MORNING...ONE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT OFF THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS AND AS OF 19Z READINGS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...TO THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY BREAKDOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE.  HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST
AND A DEEPENING LEE SFC TROUGH ALLOW FOR A STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
IN FACT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM THAT OF TODAY...WITH READINGS
APPROACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR WEST.  MID 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE EXCEPT OUR FAR EAST WHERE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BE IMPACTED MORE BY THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
HIGH...BUT LOWER 60S SHOULD BE REALIZED YET.  THE INCREASED GRADIENT
WILL PROVIDE FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.  SOLID LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURN IS SHOWN BY THE SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS...SO DESPITE THE GUSTY CONDITIONS...FIRE CONCERNS ARE LOW
GIVEN EXPECTED MINIMUM RH OF 30% OR GREATER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE.  LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OPTIMAL
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE ONE CAVEAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
ACROSS OUR NORTH WHERE THERE ARE HINTS OF STRATUS RETURNING...FOR
THIS WILL TREND THE FORECAST THE TOWARD THE MET GUIDANCE AS THE MAV
WAS DEEMED A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF STRATUS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SHOWN TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. MIXING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE 72 TO 75 DEGREES RANGE. THIS REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS FROM NEAR 70 NORTHEAST
TO NEAR 75 WEST. THIS WARM AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS A RESULT OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH CROSSES THE
WEST COAST ON MONDAY...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
AND A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SUPPORT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS SHOWING PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WITH
CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
TREND...POPS WERE INCREASED AND INCLUDED FURTHER EAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH POPS NEAR 40 PERCENT MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DECREASING OR REMOVED IN WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY.
CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND HIGHS THURSDAY HOLDING
IN THE 60S. A FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE 70S LIKELY FOR DAY 7
/FRIDAY/ AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT UNDER 10 KTS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB






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