Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 252137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
337 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

DEALING WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. ALSO SEEING POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
WHERE IT HAS COOLED BELOW THE FREEZING POINT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW AND ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE LIGHT...WITH THE WINDS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-3SM. CEILINGS
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IMPROVE SLIGHTLY...SO AFTER A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST RISES CEILINGS UP
A BIT BY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD COVER AND IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS





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