Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 120432
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

An upper level ridge will continue across the central and
eastern US through Thursday. This will result in dry and quiet
weather across north central Nebraska. A more milder airmass moves
into the region bringing overnight temperatures in the upper 30s
(across southwest Nebraska) and low 40s everywhere else.

The main story for Thursday will be a return to warm temperatures.
Plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to easily rise into the
low to mid 70s by late afternoon. Clouds begin to increase late
Thursday afternoon across the northwest as a weak system develops
across the Black Hills. Any precipitation with this system will
occur after 7pm Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Quasi-zonal flow that undercuts a western Canadian trough will
prevail across the western states, but then transition to
southwesterly on Saturday as the trough digs into the Great Basin.
The surface feature of note will be a tandem of cold fronts with the
first arriving around 00z Friday.  The second front is scheduled to
arrive late morning Saturday.  With both the system generated
forcing is fairly strong, but moisture appears to be lacking.  The
latest 12z suite of models have trended drier with the forecast
blender catching up.  Will keep some slight chance to chance wording
in the forecast for Saturday, especially across our northern and
eastern zones as a brief period of weak upglide targets the northern
Sandhills. QPF will remain less than a few hundreths of an inch due
to a substantial dry layer though. The fronts will trend
temperatures back below average with highs mainly in the 50s on
Saturday.

The trough will be east of the forecast area on Sunday with expected
westerly downsloping flow at the surface.  Highs will remain below
average with readings in the 50s for most locations.  Early next
week temperatures trend warmer with the lower tropospheric wind
transitioning to southerly.  H85 temps rise above 15C Tuesday
afternoon with efficient mixing expected.  Widespread highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s are likely.  Overall forecast confidence is
good.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

VFR with just a few scattered high cirrus clouds are expected
through Thursday. Some concern for low level wind shear the next
couple of hours, but the speed doesn`t appear to be strong enough
to include in this TAF issuance.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Taylor



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