Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 290009 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
609 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Very large and deep low pressure system is slowly moving west across
eastern North Dakota late this afternoon. This system will continue
to move slowly west and then south before turning to the east
tomorrow. As it makes this loop it will inch close enough to the
area to bring some accumulating snow to far northwest Nebraska,
primarily the Pine Ridge in Sheridan county eastward into far
northwest and north central Cherry county.

Moist north flow aloft will be favorable for an upslope type snow
event along the Pine Ridge into northwest and far northern Cherry
county. Persistent lift starts about 09Z Tuesday and will continue
through much of the day Tuesday. The lift is accompanied by moisture
through the dendritic layer across far northwest Nebraska, but
farther south and east the moisture is lost. So expect snow to be
confined to just the far northwest, with perhaps a few flurries for
areas farther south and east. Thinking 2 to 4 inches will accumulate
north of Highway 20 across northwest Nebraska late tonight into
Tuesday. This will combine with northwest winds gusting to 35 mph
which will create some blowing snow. Will continue the winter
weather advisory for late tonight through Tuesday night for far
northwest Nebraska. The rest of the area should see little if any
snow accumulation, but strong winds will once again be a factor

Temperatures Tuesday will be colder (mainly 30s to near 40
degrees) as a secondary cold front moves through the area ushering
in the colder air to our north.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, snowfall chances and snow
accumulations are the main forecast concern. The upper low will
drift slowly south from central into southern Minnesota Tuesday
night, then into the western Great Lakes Wednesday. Favorable
lift in association with this feature, will increase over far
northern Nebraska Tuesday night. This lift will lead to an
increased threat for persistent light snow Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning across northern Sheridan and northwest Cherry
county, where it will be locally enhanced over the Pine Ridge
given the northwesterly winds. In these areas, based on the latest
blend of model QPF, and incorporating a 13:1 snow to water ratio,
yields total snow accumulations into Wednesday morning of 1 to 4
inches along and north of highway 20 in Cherry and Sheridan
counties. In addition to snow, a decent surface pressure gradient
will reside from western South Dakota into western Nebraska. Gusty
northerly winds will combine with the snow, producing an increased
blowing snow threat. Due to the combination of snow and blowing
snow, a winter weather advisory will continue for Sheridan and
western Cherry county focusing on areas along and north of
highway 20 where local enhancement along the Pine Ridge will be
the strongest. Flurries may linger into Wednesday afternoon as
the system exits the region.

Thursday through Monday, general upper level troughing across the
region will be replaced by upper ridge by Sunday into Monday, as
the next upstream trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. A fairly
cold airmass will remain in place Thursday and Friday with H85
temps in the -2C to -6C range, with a nice warmup into the 40s by
Sunday and possibly the mid 40s to lower 50s by Monday as the
upper level ridge begins to break down.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Stratus and precipitation wiil move south out of the Dakotas this
evening into northern Nebraska and affect the KVTN taf site.
Ceilings will lower into mvfr conditions after 29/03z. Along with
lower ceilings is the chance for light snowfall thoughout the
night and into Tuesday morning. Strong northwest winds will
continue over night with gusts to 25kts. KLBF will continue in vfr
ceilings over night. Northwest winds will decrease over southwest
Nebraska through the night but will increase through the morning
on Tuesday with gusts to 30kts through the afternoon.


Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Tuesday to 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for NEZ004-094.



LONG TERM...Roberg
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