Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 230834
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TEMPERATURES FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND STEADY FLOW OF MOISTURE
NORTH TO KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVERAGE OVERHEAD. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT HOWEVER CREATE A SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES. FORECAST TRENDED
TOWARD A MODEL BLEND AND TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR WEST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT
YET CONTINUE TO EJECT DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MORNING A FEW SHOWERS...MORE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR A
QUARTER INCH AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. FURTHER NORTH THE DEEP MOISTURE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND CLOSE TEMP AND DEW POINT VALUES SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP
AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH NOONTIME. THIS
AFTERNOON GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND NORTH...WHERE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
NEAR ELLSWORTH...BRADY AND EUSTIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID 60S SOUTH AND
NORTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT LITTLE CHANGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE NEB. AND
KANSAS STATE LINE BY MORNING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER
THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 50
WEST TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH CENTRAL. AS DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THEIR HANDLING OVER MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERNS AND TIMING OF
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FOR SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS DRIER AIR PUSHES NORTHEAST AND THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A SLOW
MOVING PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY THE WAY OF A WEAK PV MAX
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS
THE LLJ CRANKS UP BY LATE EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THE TIME WINDOW IS NARROW AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER
SUNSET.

FORECAST DRIES OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. MONDAY
NIGHT LOOKS COOL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK NORTHWEST
DRAINAGE WINDS. HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 40S NOT
ANTICIPATING FROST TO BE AN ISSUE.

SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY IN THE
PRESENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AS A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARRIVES LATE
IN THE DAY...HOWEVER FORCING LOOKS MEAGER AT BEST SO COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO
ADVERTISE DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ALOFT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
12Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE IN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW FOR LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE LOW
CHANCE OF AN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BETWEEN KIML AND KLBF. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS BETTER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH STORMS OVER FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST...WHILE THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE
AND FOG LINGERS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...KECK






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