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000
FXUS63 KLBF 150847
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
347 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AT 07Z...MSL ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
A WARM FRONT DRAPED EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TO
ANOTHER LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT IS THEN STRETCHED
NORTHWARD TO A LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHEAST COLORADO LOW ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 60F WERE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A LOBE OF 60F WRAPPING AROUND THE NEBRASKA
SURFACE LOW TO AINSWORTH...THEDFORD AND NORTH PLATTE. RADAR
INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH FAIRLY INTENSE ECHO RETURNS INN NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE HOURLY RAPID REFRESH HRRR3KM AND THE RAP13 MODELS SHOW THE
STORMS IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. BEFORE MERGING INTO A LINE THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY
SPREADING TO NEAR NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA. AFTER 00Z...STORMS THAT
FORMED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ALONG THE WESTERN PART OF THE SURFACE
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. FOR THAT AREA...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF
2500J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50KT WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND RETROGRADE OF THE
BROAD CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
INCREASING CHANCES OF POPS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW AND WORKS ON A
STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF AN EML AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE WEST
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE FOR
SUPPORTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. BUT...MORE WELCOME WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL /POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH/. 40 PERCENT POPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. FOR MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME
PREVAILS UNDER THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO SPILL
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. BEYOND MONDAY...THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT REMAIN ACTIVE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION
CHANCES TARGETING THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STORMS WOULD POSSIBLY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TARGETS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...TIMING OF STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK REMAINS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
AS TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
ARE READILY APPARENT. THUS WILL EMPLOY THE BLENDED APPROACH WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE PROCEDURE. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECTING SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT WARM LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE REGION IS INFLUENCED BY
THE BUILDING RIDGE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. CIGS MAY
DROP DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE KLBF TERMINAL. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AFTER 10Z
OVERNIGHT...WITH BROKEN CIGS AON 5000 FT AGL EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT SATURDAY EVENING WITH
ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS
WILL RANGE FROM 6000 TO 10000 FT AGL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB