Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 151154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
554 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Upper level low is currently centered across northwest Mexico, just
south of Arizona. An Abundant amount of tropical/subtropical mid and
upper level moisture has been pulled northward ahead of the system
into the southern plains. Lift is increasing ahead of the system
across New Mexico and western Texas this morning, and showers and
thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across that area. This
activity will lift north/northeast into western Kansas and eastern
Colorado this morning as the upper flow becomes more southerly
aloft. Models continue to struggle with the northward extent of the
precipitation, but the HRRR and RAP, as well as the NAM and ECMWF
lift at least some light QPF into southwest Nebraska later this
morning and linger into this afternoon. Model soundings support that
this will fall as all liquid, either light freezing rain or rain
depending on the temperature, which will be right near the freezing
mark. Only expecting a trace or a few hundreths at best so
significant icing is not expected.

The upper low will track northeast into Kansas tonight. Model
consensus is that the heavier precipitation will stay southeast of
western and north central Nebraska, but with the continued potential
for light freezing rain, sleet and light snow tonight will maintain
the winter storm warning currently in effect.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

As mentioned above, the heaviest precipitation appears it will now
remain southeast of western and north central Nebraska, as the upper
low track has shifted some to the southeast. Nevertheless, our
southeast areas from O`Neill to North Platte to Imperial may still
be clipped by the northwest portion of the deformation band of snow
Monday morning. Snow accumulations in these areas are still
anticipated to be on the order of 1 to 3 inches. This on top of any
light ice accumulation will likely lead to some travel problems
Monday morning. This has been, and continues to be a challenging
forecast due to a northern stream system which is greatly
influencing the track of the upper low across Kansas. Models still
have not resolved the strength of the northern stream, and therefore
continue to struggle with the track and northern extent of the
precipitation from the Kansas upper low. If the northern stream is a
bit stronger than currently depicted, then it is possible that very
little snow may develop across our area.

A quick warm up is expected in the wake of this system for the rest
of the week. In fact, most areas will be near or even above 50
degrees Wednesday into Thursday. Very active pattern to continue
however, and a series of strong Pacific storm systems will begin
parading onto the west coast Thursday into the weekend. Some
potential for a storm system to develop as these move east Friday
into the weekend across the central plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Visual flight rules expected for KVTN today and Monday being on
northern border of storm system. KLBF will be in the storm system
with temperatures hovering around freezing and rain freezing as it
falls through the afternoon into the early evening before changing
to snow overnight. MVFR cigs will move in with freezing rain
through the late morning into afternoon. Freezing rain is expected
east of a line from KIML to KANW and will be more widespread the
further east of that line you go.


Winter Storm Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ Monday for NEZ036>038-057>059-069>071.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday
for NEZ007>010-025>029.



LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Allen is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.