Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 150917

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
417 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Storms moving north at a good clip and should be into South Dakota
by 12z with some lingering showers over the north. As the upper
trough as seen in wv approaches from the west showers and
thunderstorms will move back across northern Nebraska. The surface
low will shift north and deepen some as the upper support approaches
with front lying across southern Nebraska lifting north through the
day. This warm frontal boundary will be the focus for thunderstorm
development through the afternoon into the early evening. Strong
differential heating with steep lapse rates will develop over north
central Nebraska this afternoon. Marginal risk over north central
zones seems reasonable. With cooler air filtering in from the
northwest a transition to showers over the west with thunderstorms
to the east. Highs today in the 70s northwest and upper 80s south
and east. Thunderstorms continuing along the front over north
central tonight with showers further west. Lows tonight in the low
40s northwest to the mid 50s south and east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

A few lingering showers are possible on Saturday morning before
high pressure builds into the region. The main story for the weekend
will be the cooler temperatures moving into the region. Highs
Saturday will range from the low 60s across the Pine Ridge region
into the low 70s south of I-80. Low temperatures overnight will then
drop into the mid 30s across the Pine Ridge area and into the upper
40s across the south. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly warmer
than Saturday, however, still below normal. Expect highs on Sunday
to be in the low 70s across the forecast area.

Dry weather will continue through Sunday before the next shot of
rain arrives on Sunday night and Monday morning. A quick moving
shortwave will bring a very low chance of some precipitation to
southern Nebraska. Will keep precipitation chances around 40 percent
on Sunday night. Currently not expecting any severe weather with
this system, but will continue to monitor over the next couple

The main stories for next week will be the return of dry weather and
warmer conditions. Current model runs are keeping any precipitation
chances for next week north and east of north central Nebraska. Warm
air advection from the south will also result in warmer temperatures
to return to the area. Expect highs in the 80s from Monday through
Wednesday. Temperatures begin to drop off on Thursday where highs
will rise into the mid 70s to low 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Radar display over the last hour shows showers and storms
increasing in coverage across southwest NEB with frequent cloud
to ground lightning noted. Elsewhere, showers and relatively
weaker thunderstorms are located upstream in northeast CO and the
southern Panhandle. Overall, this activity is expected to move
across portions of southwest and west central NEB into the
Sandhills and north central NEB through the small hours into
early morning tomorrow. Of which, the isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected to be waning and/or exiting the
area during the early morning hours.

Otherwise, stratus with sub-VFR ceilings are expected to develop
across northwest NEB and parts of northern NE early morning into
the early afternoon. Ceilings as low as IFR will be possible.
Winds will shift tomorrow as a surface low evolves and moves from
extreme southwest NEB to far north central NEB. Strongest winds
expected over central NEB tomorrow afternoon under southerly flow
with gusts up to 25 MPH.




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