Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 232347 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
647 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND BEYOND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...THEN IF ANY RECORD HIGHS WILL FALL
TOMORROW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND PUSHING
HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE HELPED MIX OUT THE LL MOISTURE FROM THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER STILL HAVE AN AREA FROM KMCK TO KBBW AND TO THE
EAST WHERE DEW PTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S. WE ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY FOG FORECAST.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE RICH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE ZONES...AM EXPECTING SOME FOG TO REDEVELOP.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT...NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WITH KBBW STILL SEEING A DEW PT IN
THE 50S...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS IN THE 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR FOG WHERE DEW PTS STILL AROUND 50 OR
ABOVE. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE SW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
DRYING TO OCCUR AND KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DENSE...THUS WILL HAVE ONLY PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

TOMORROW A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE /CIRRUS/ IS PUSHED NORTH RESULTING WITH SUNNY SKIES.
THUS TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY CLIMB IN THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
DELAY IF ANY FOG LINGERS IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK MIXING. GFS IS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS MIXING TOMORROW AND AS A RESULT HAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES. LATELY WE HAVE MIXED WELL AND MODELS HAVE BEEN COOL ON
HIGHS...THUS FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH SW NEB
INTO THE MID 80S. RECORDS FOR TOMORROW ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SO WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY WHICH LIMITS VERTICAL MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY RISE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTN.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF EAST INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF STRATUS FORMING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT. A LOW PRESS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD LIFT
THIS FRONT AND THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING
WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE
STRONG THERMAL FORCING AND WEST WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD
OCCUR BUT THE GUIDANCE IS LAGGING HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MANY
AREAS. COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN
AND THE MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHER THAN THE STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. A CHECK ON CIRRUS IN THE MODELS INDICATES THESE CLOUDS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS THE JET AFFECTS THAT
AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. SOME COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN OVER NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KLBF SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER






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