Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 232049
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
349 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows high clouds, generally translucent
to opaque, across portions of western and north central NEB
streaming from the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. Latest
water vapor imagery shows a modest shortwave trough tracking into
the Southwest US from central California and another shortwave
trough tracking eastward in the offshore waters of the Pacific
Northwest.

Monday will feature the last day in the forecast package with
above normal high temperatures. A cold pattern will then prevail
Tuesday through this weekend wherein below normal high
temperatures are expected to persist, often 10 degrees or more
below their seasonal normal values.

The former disturbance will track quickly through the Four Corners
region into the Central High Plains by the early morning and
promote slight chances/chances for showers in the northern-half
of the local forecast area. However, BUFKIT profiles show a dry
atmospheric column in the lower troposphere that will need to be
overcome first. Chances are low, PoPs generally less than 25%,
attributable to dry air in place and given the depth of the wave
and overall forcing. Otherwise, warmer low temperatures are
expected tonight compared to this morning attributable to
increasing cloudiness and winds staying elevated overnight. Lows
are forecast in the mid 40s to around 50. Generally dry
conditions will then prevail on Monday with a mix of sunshine and
clouds. Surface low pressure will evolve and move from far
eastern WY to central SD by Monday morning. This surface low will
then weaken during the day with a new surface low forming Monday
afternoon in the Southern High Plains. A weak cold front will
advance eastward across the area Monday and will exit the local
forecast area in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The large scale pattern at the start of the period will feature a
broad long wave trough over the Western and Central CONUS with
cyclonic flow prevailing and a closed low over the Southwest US.
The mid-level trough is expected to move southeastward from the
Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West early Monday
night to the Northern Plains to the Four Corners region late
Tuesday. Thereafter, the upper trough will move farther east and
extend from the Upper Mississippi Valley to near the ArkLaTex
region Wednesday. A brief reprieve from precipitation chances on
Monday after a passing short wave trough will then be followed by
the next disturbance. A positive PV anomaly is expected to track
from the Central Great Basin Monday into the Central High Plains
by late Monday Night to SD Tuesday. Meanwhile, a surface low will
have developed and be located in the Southern High Plains Monday
night. This low will then deepen some Tuesday over the Southern
High Plains as a stronger short wave trough tracks into the Four
Corners region. Guidance is in decent agreement with a lower
tropospheric deformation zone and frontogenesis to prompt
increased chances after midnight Tuesday through Tuesday evening.
Thermal profiles also suggest possibility of rain/snow mix or wet
snow Tuesday evening-overnight given the reinforcing cold air
that will be transported southward on the backside. Dry conditions
are then expected Wednesday as the surface low tracks from the
Southern High Plains early Tuesday night to the Middle Mississippi
Valley by Wednesday morning.

Unsettled conditions are then anticipated Thursday-Sunday as
multiple disturbances influence the sensible weather over the
region. Another disturbance is expected to track southeast from
the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night and swing across the Central
Rockies to Central High Plains Thursday-Thursday Night.
Thereafter, models are in decent agreement with the upper trough
developing into a closed circulation over the Southwest US and
Central Great Basin Late by Friday. This upper trough then closed
low will prompt chances for precipitation Thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR anticipated for all terminals through the current TAF cycle.
Gusty south winds are forecast with a wind shift to northwest
behind a cold front early Monday morning. Wind shear will be
present at most terminals as the winds at the surface weaken some
overnight /due to loss of mixing/ but stay strong aloft. Overall
forecast confidence is high due to strong short term model
continuity.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...Jacobs



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