Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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775
FXUS63 KLBF 271809
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
109 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

At 08z...Remnants of the MCS which moved across western Nebraska
now moving across eastern Nebraska. To the west, scattered showers
developing across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

AT 11 am CT more isolated showers and a few thunderstorms across
the west and moving into the central. Forecast trend will continue
to focus higher pops to shift south over the southwest into the
evening as cold front moves south. Pops adjusted down across the
north central through today into tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Today...A disturbance currently across central Wyoming evident on wv
imagery. This will track east-southeast in the 500mb flow across
western Nebraska today into tonight. 0-3km mucapes will range from
3000-3500 j/kg with deep layer shear will increase to 30-40 kts,
especially across the sern panhandle into southwest Nebraska. Models
offer differing solutions, but settle on the best chances from 30 to
40 percent across the southwestern half of the forecast area. This
matches up well with a marginal risk area for severe storms,
generally west of a line from Gordon through North Platte. There
will likely be at least isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the day, with the strongest storms possible
mid afternoon until mid evening. Highs today will range from the low
to mid 80s north central and central to the upper 80s far southwest.

For tonight...Strong storms possible across the eastern panhandle
and southwest until mid evening. Still a slight chance after
midnight across the southwest half of the forecast area as weak
disturbance follow the northwest flow aloft. Northeastern areas
forecast dry after midnight. Lows kept near previous forecast from
the upper 50s northwest to the lower 60s south and east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Upper level ridge of high pressure will remain centered across
northern AZ and southern UT Thursday into Friday. Flow around the
high will keep northwest flow aloft across our area. A shortwave
aloft will track southeast from Montana through the Dakotas and
Nebraska during the two day period, moving off to the east during
the weekend. NAM model, as well as the global models, indicate
the possibility for another MCS tracking southeast across the area
Thursday night. Models consensus is that the best instability will
remain along and west of Highway 83 Thursday afternoon and
evening. Deep layer shear is quite strong, and would expect that
another forward propagating MCS with severe wind could
materialize. Further mid level development of showers/thunder will
linger into Friday as the wave aloft crosses the area.

Upper level ridge aloft will begin building/expanding back to the
east toward the central and southern plains Saturday and Sunday
into the first of next week. This will bring an end to the
precipitation chances and the return to hot temperatures again by
Monday. At this time not expecting triple digit heat, but mid 90s
likely for many locations by Monday. Humidity will accompany the
heat once again, with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees.
This could push heat index readings over 100 degrees in spots.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

A broken band of light rain showers will drift across southwest
Nebraska this afternoon and could impact the KLBF terminal. A
better chance will be the next wave later this afternoon into
this evening. Latest short term models favor locations to the
southwest of KVTN however will continue to monitor as an
amendment may be needed if impact to the terminal changes. At
this time the coverage/confidence is not high enough to include
in the forecast.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Keck
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Masek



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