Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 272317 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
517 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENVELOPED THE
ENTIRE LOWER 48 THIS MORNING WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED WITHIN THE H5 FLOW
THIS MORNING ONE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...A SECOND...ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE EXTENDED FROM SRN MICHIGAN...WWD TO NRN NEBRASKA. A THIRD
DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN NEVADA WITH A STRONGER UPSTREAM
WAVE NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC NW STATES. ALL TOLD...A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS...OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. CLOSER TO HOME...THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES...HAS PUSHED EAST AND WAS SPREADING SNOW TO NORTHERN
TX...OKLAHOMA AND SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WAS
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NRN AZ AND SRN UT WITH A DECENT AMMT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO ERUPT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED ACROSS NRN MO AND IA THIS
AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...AND HAVE USHERED IN RECYCLED ARCTIC AIR FROM THE SOUTH. WITH
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 20S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SOME 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE SW CONUS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NEBRASKA. SEVERAL WAVES ARE
TRACKING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. IN GENERAL WE ARE ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OR JUST NORTH OF THE WAVES. NEXT WAVE MOVES ONTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850 MB TEMPS
-10C TO -15C. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXPANSION OF THE
CLOUDS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME CLOUDS BEFORE
MORNING AND WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. IF SKIES
REMAINS CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT TEMPS COULD FALL TO AROUND ZERO OR
BELOW...INSTEAD OF SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INCREASES THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THE STRATUS IS ALSO IN THIS ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY LIFT IN THE ZONE. WILL INCLUDE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
WHERE THE DEPTH OF STRATUS IS GREATEST...ACROSS SW NEB. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TOMORROW AND ARE RECYCLING THE ARCTIC AIR. TEMPS
TODAY IN THE 20S...EVEN WHERE THERE WAS SOME CLOUDS. GUIDANCE IS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER...WHICH MAKES SENSE AND IS FOLLOWED AS THE
RECYCLED AIR GETS SLIGHTLY MODIFIED. WARMEST WILL BE ACROSS N
CENTRAL WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME PEAKS OF SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MID RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE MID RANGE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IN PARTICULAR
ACROSS THE SRN FORECAST AREA...AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS OF WESTERN
KS AND EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT EAST OF THIS FEATURE
WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS
AND FAR SRN NEBRASKA AND SERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS
TAKEN PERPENDICULAR FROM THE MEAN H5 FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HAS THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
CORRIDOR. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THESE
AREAS...HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. THIS IS DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LIGHT PCPN
GFS-NAM00Z SOLN AND THE DRIER ECM AND WARW MODELS WHICH LIMIT ANY
QPF`S TO UNDER 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO A HALF
OR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.  AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE IN
PCPN SUNDAY...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM THE SRN ROCKIES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE MAIN LOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...SOME WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE DRAWN
NORTH LEADING TO THE LIMITED THREAT FOR FREEZING PCPN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
WESTERN KS...NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON
MONDAY...INDICATE THE BEST THERMAL PROFILE FOR FZ PCPN BEING JUST
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FURTHER NORTH...THERMAL
PROFILES DICTATE ALL SNOW ATTM...ALBEIT LIGHT ONCE AGAIN.

LONG RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHIFTING FORWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NRN MEXICO WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AND CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NRN PLAINS. MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LEAD TO THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIODS.
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...SO IN
ADDITION TO SNOW HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 20S
TUESDAY. STARTING WEDNESDAY...RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WILL FORCE THE ARCTIC AIR EAST...ALLOWING 40S AND 50S TO
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE NEXT YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE AREA OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS WRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
VFR WOULD DEVELOP 15Z-18Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THEREAFTER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






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