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000
FXUS63 KLBF 120855
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
355 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE ECM FAVORS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SWRN NEB WHILE
THE NAM AND GEM SOLNS FAVOR NRN NEB. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND
OF THESE SOLNS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. NONE OF THE MODELS
SHOW HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FOCUS THIS MIGHT BE
NORMAL.

THE RAP SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN MOISTURE...PWS OVER
1.5 INCHES...SO STORMS WHICH FORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S TO MID 80S. TONIGHT
LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS THE FIRST PUSH OF DRIER
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TO WARM
TEMPS INTO THE 80S. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND NOT
LOOKING AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY. PWATS DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH...WHICH
IS BELOW THE 50 PERCENTILE FOR JULY. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOWERED
POPS FOR THE DAY...ALTHOUGH DID NOT ELIMINATE. MEANWHILE
UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB FOR MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
PLAINS. TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOLDING
IN THE LOWER 70S. MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS BRING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO
SW NEB AND WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS.

COLD SNAP WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LIFT INTO TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL THEN EXPAND
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS PUSH THE MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH AS WARM
AIR EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND
80 FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY. NUMERICAL MOS
GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE 90S FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...HOWEVER THE WAY THIS SUMMER HAS GONE...HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
DISTURBANCES FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FORECAST IS DRY AT
THIS TIME...BUT LOW POPS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 08Z...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY ONE POINT IS LOW.
THEREFORE...AFTER 07Z...WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION TO VCTS BOTH VTN
AND LBF. RADAR INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEMS ARE
DEVELOPING AS THE RAPID UPDATE SHORT TERM FORECASTS INDICATED. THERE
IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CHANGE AND BRING STORMS TO LBF AND VTN BEFORE 09Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC