Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 270427 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1127 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Visible and IR satellite imagery show low-clouds, stratocu, across
north central NEB and portions of northwest NEB. Latest water
vapor imagery shows an upper level trough and cyclonic flow over
the western and central CONUS with an axis over the Northern
Plains to Southern Plains. A shortwave trough is located at the
base over central TX/southwest OK with another open wave present
in the eastern Northern Plains and, farther upstream, a shortwave
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.

Increasing clouds overnight, mostly mid-level and high clouds,
while the aforementioned shortwave trough in the eastern Pacific
Northwest tracks southeastward into the Four Corners and
central/southern Rockies tonight. A surface low is expected to
develop late tonight/early morning and deepen tomorrow in the
Southern High Plains. Gradual increase in precipitation chances
tomorrow over the course of the day with increasing low-level
warm advection beginning tomorrow morning over southwest NEB. A
few rumbles of thunder possible in the afternoon over the far
southwest given the presence of marginal instability. Of concern
is the dry lower troposphere that will need to be overcome based
on BUFKIT profiles thus the ramp-up in PoPs/precipitation chances.
Otherwise, similar high temperatures to today are expected
tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Rather complicated upper air pattern the next several days.
Shortwave energy is forecasted to dive into Wyoming and Colorado
Thursday and then into Nebraska Thursday night into Friday. A
warm front will develop across northern Kansas with deep moist
easterly flow both at the surface and aloft across the local area
to the north of the front. Isentropic lift develops Thursday night
and continues through the day Friday. Widespread rain seems
likely with the good moisture and lift. Otherwise continued chilly
with 850 mb temps in the 0C to -3C range. Will have to watch as
NAM Bufkit sounding data indicates a change over to wet snow late
Thursday night into Friday in the Sandhills. Could be some light
accumulations of an inch or two on grassy surfaces. Not expecting
much accumulation on road surfaces with air temperatures in the 32
to 35 degree range, but some slushy accumulation cannot be ruled
out.

This first system weakens and move east of the area Saturday as
more energy digs south into the four corners region. Models and
GEFS agree that this will develop into a significant closed system
Saturday night into Sunday. As of now the trowal/wrap around
precipitation just brushes the eastern portions of the local
forecast area. This will have to be watched closely as any shift
west would mean significant precipitation for the area.
Temperatures will continue to be well below normal as reinforcing
cold air is drawn south into the area Sunday on the back side of
the system.

Northwest flow aloft develops early next week. Weak shortwave
energy embedded within the flow could bring some light shower
activity. Temperatures will remain cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

VFR is expected all areas through 09z tonight. The short range
models suggest an area of fog will form 10z-14z across the Nrn
Sandhills. The mechanism for the fog appears to be light winds and
strong radiational cooling.

The models suggest VFR cigs with -RA 15z-19z Thursday across Swrn
Neb south of I-80. MVFR cigs in rain should develop across Swrn
Neb from 20z onward and spread north into the Cntl Sandhills
Thursday evening. Areas of IFR in low cigs/vsby/-RA would likely
develop across the Sandhills Thursday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC



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