Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 182327
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
527 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The latest water vapor images showed a ridge over the central
CONUS with an upper low off the BC Coast. Lots of mid/upper level
moisture was streaming across the Rockies over the northern and
central plains. This ridge will flatten and translate east through
Friday as a trough approaches the West Coast. The result is that
mild and dry conditions are expected to continue tonight through
Friday as 850-mb temperatures run well above average under the
influence of the upper ridge. Upper-level clouds/cirrus will
continue to be fairly widespread given the moisture trajectory
from the western CONUS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The western trough will move over the southwestern CONUS Friday
night and Saturday, and deepen. As this occurs, a cold front will
drop south into northern NE Friday night, and across the rest of
the area on Saturday. This will result in a cool-down with highs
back to near average on Saturday. Low-level moisture with dry air
aloft may also result in areas of freezing drizzle developing over
the northern NE Panhandle during Saturday afternoon.

The upper trough really strengthens Saturday night and Sunday with
a low closing off over the central plains. Q-G and frontogenetical
forcing will be quite strong with this system, especially from the
Panhandle across north-central NE. Indications also suggest jet
coupling and a TROWAL. Models agree well on these features, but do
have differences in location. Nevertheless, the highest confidence
of a significant event is across the northern part of the CWA.

Strong north winds will develop later Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning. This likely will produce hazardous winter
conditions owing to blowing snow and reduced wind chills. Will
continue with the messaging in the HWO and Graphicast, and
anticipate that a winter storm watch will be issued tonight if
models become even more consistent.

The storm system should move out rapidly on Monday afternoon, with
generally dry conditions and near-average temperatures for Tuesday
through Thursday. Obvious exceptions would be where new snow
occurs and, hence, temperatures will be relatively lower there.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Abundant upper level moisture will continue to stream into the
Central and Northern Plains overnight into Friday morning. This
will lead to broken CIGS around 25000 FT AGL through midday
Friday. Skies will scatter out some Friday afternoon. Winds will
be from the west or west northwest at under 10 KTS over the next
24 hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bunkers
LONG TERM...Bunkers
AVIATION...Buttler



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