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000
FXUS63 KLBF 221120 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The ongoing thunderstorm activity across SD moves east this morning
allowing cooler air into Nebraska. The warmest model, the HRRR EXP
was 4 degrees too cool Wednesday. Today it suggests 90-100F along
and south of I-80 before the cooler air arrives noon-3 pm. It is
very similar to the other models with the timing of the cold front.

The temperature forecast today leans on the HRRR EXP for highs in
the 90s along and south of I-80. There could still be a 100+
surprise ahead of the front given the very warm air aloft and this
would be most likely across Frontier County.

The RAP model suggests sufficient theta-e advection behind the front
for mostly isolated thunderstorms today and tonight. The best focus
for storms would appear to be across Cntl Neb and KS. None of the
models are suggesting anything organized across Wrn/Ncntl Neb so
POPs are 20 to 30 percent.

The models suggest mid level cloudiness overhead tonight and a blend
of guidance plus bias correction produces lows in the 40s and 50s
which could be too cool given the expected cloud cover in some
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Over the next several days a broad trough will develop across the
northern states with a ridge parked over the west.  The forecast
models indicate the trough building east this weekend with the
amplification of the western conus ridge.  Cool surface high
pressure will settled south over the high plains Friday and remain
through the weekend.  Thus unsettled and cool conditions are
forecast into early next week.  Highs are forecast to fall into the
60s and 70s across the high plains for the weekend, but rebound
early next week with return flow and strong waa with the building
ridge.

The cool high pressure will force low level moisture south, but
enough forcing from FGEN/synoptic scale would provide for some
periodic mention of light rainshowers Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
The highest chances, albeit slight target southwest Neb.

Thunder chances return early next week when deeper low level
moisture arrive with the southerly flow and the presence of a low
level jet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

VFR is generally expected all areas today and tonight.

A strong Pacific cold front will sweep through western and
north central Nebraska today.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon, generally
along and east of a line from Oneill to Broken Bow to Stockville.
This evening, the same is forecast along and south of Interstate
80.

Note that the forecast this afternoon is somewhat speculative as
none of the models are showing much development. Tonight, the
model suggest storms will move in from Wyoming and Northeast
Colorado.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...CDC