Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 010532
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING ON HUDSON BAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. SFC BOUNDARY /GENERALLY EAST TO WEST/ ACROSS THE STATE AND
IS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS AS OF 3 PM
WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND DEW PTS WERE IN THE LOWER
60S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT THE STORMS ARE A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH. THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS INCHED NORTHWARD
SINCE YESTERDAY...THUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED FURTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED...HOWEVER
STEEP LAPSE RATES...DECENT SHEAR BUT MARGINAL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRONG STORMS...BUT NOT GREAT FOR SEVERE. THESE STORMS SHOULD
DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH ONCE SUNSET OCCURS.

HOWEVER A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN THE NW FLOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEB. THESE ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL GET AN ADDED BOOST BY THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS POTENTIAL
MCS COULD LINGER ACROSS N CENTRAL IN THE MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MODELS MAY BE OFF IN THE PLACEMENT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME THE
FAVORED LOCATION IS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST WHATEVER
CONVECTION IS ONGOING SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.
THE CAVEAT IS A MODEST SSWLY 25KT 850 MB JET THAT DOES NOT VEER
UNTIL 06Z AND THERE IS STILL GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS NW NEB. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THE CONVECTION
COULD LAST UNTIL 09Z OR A BIT LATER.

SUNDAY WILL BE A DRY AND WARM DAY. MOISTURE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH PWAT LESS THAN 1 INCH AND AS LOW AS 0.5 INCHES. HIGHS RISE INTO
THE 90S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PRESS INTO NCNTL NEB BUT THE BULK OF
THE AIR FILTERING SOUTHEAST WILL BE HOT AIR OFF A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.

COOLER AIR WILL BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS BY MORNING. THIS SETS UP RETURN FLOW AND A WARM
FRONT MONDAY. THE MODELS LOOKS PRETTY CRAZY WITH PRECIPE. STUFF LIKE
QPF BULLSEYES WITH 850-700MB MOISTURE LESS THAN 60 PERCENT. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 30 PERCENT MONDAY AFTN.

STILL THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
BAD PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE QPF FORECAST WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPE
MONDAY AFTN...DEWPOINTS LESS THAN 60 AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 90. WHICH
SPELLS A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. SAFE TO SAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE. WE WOULD NOTE THE MODELS ARE BIFFING THE DEWPOINT
FORECAST THIS AFTN. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S...THE MODELS
WERE FORECASTING 40S AND 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE ECM AND GFS
SOLNS. THE DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WILL PULL COOL HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL BACK INTO THE FCST AREA SETTING A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEB. THE GFS AND ECM SUGGEST THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEB WHILE THE GEF MODEL SPREADS THE WEALTH INTO
SWRN NEB. THIS RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL VARY DAY TO DAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACK
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

THE ECM SMARTLY SHOWS THE FRONT PULLING UP 65+ DEW POINTS INTO WRN
AND NCNTL NEB ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS IS SIMILAR BUT PREFERS TO
KEEP THE FRONT MOISTLY IN THE MISSOURI BASIN AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS THIS WEEK. PRESUMABLY...SOME VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB WHICH MIGHT REMAIN SOUTH
OR WEST OF THE FRONT.

POPS ARE LIMITED TO 30 PERCENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WPC
SUGGESTS 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED STORMS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 01/09Z. LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS AFFECTING KVTN TAF
SITE LOW AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCTS AT THIS TIME. A STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH BECOMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AND NORTHEAST AND LIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER


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