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000
FXUS63 KLBF 271929
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
229 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE
SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A
BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BC NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND UPPER 50S FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH BY
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC
DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.  WITH THAT BEING
SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS OR SO 6KM BULK
SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF STORMS
FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS