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000
FXUS63 KLBF 251759
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1159 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS DROPPED SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. A NICE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND HAS LED TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
WINDS AS OF 1 AM CST WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 48 MPH AT VALENTINE
AND BROKEN BOW...AND 44 MPH AT THEDFORD. FURTHER WEST...WINDS
HAVE RELAXED AND WERE UNDER 20 MPH AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.
VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WERE PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...WHILE ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83...SKIES WERE CLEAR. ALOFT AT H5...A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NRN QUEBEC...SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
RIDGING EXTENDED UP THE WEST COAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ALBERTA...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THIS...COUPLED
WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...HAS LED TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING...WHICH HAS CONTINUED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE FAR NERN CWA. WITH THE BREEZY CONDS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES WERE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. READINGS RANGED FROM 33 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 41 AT BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WINDS TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. FOR TODAY...THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN IOWA INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. FOR THIS MORNING...THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS INDICATING
SOME DECENT PRESSURE RISES OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING
COUPLED WITH A NICE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. H85 WINDS OF 40 TO 50
KTS AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH TO 25 TO 35 KTS BY 18Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE BREEZY
BY NOONTIME. BREEZY CONDS WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 875 MB THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WITH DECENT MIXING TDY...TEMPS SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE NORTHEAST AS CLOUDS LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS. FOR TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST AND WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS BEHIND
THE PASSING WARM FRONT...WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TONIGHT WITH SOME MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MIGRATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM INTO THE TEENS C ABOVE ZERO. ONLY A FEW AREAS ACROSS
NW ZONES HAVE SNOW LEFT AND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAXIMIZE HEATING. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS FOR
MONDAY AND THEN A WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZE FOR TUESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH THE EC GUIDANCE FOR IML
HIGHEST AT 72. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE TYPICAL OF LATE APRIL OR
EARLY MAY...SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS IS STRONGEST ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER EXPECT THE DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS TO HELP WITH MIXING...THUS TEMPS VERY SIMILAR.
OVERNIGHT SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...COLDEST IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. RECORD HIGHS AROUND 70 THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND COULD BE
IN JEOPARDY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORDS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH DOWN THE FRONT RANGES.
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAY SO TIMING
HIGHS A LITTLE DIFFICULT. SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
AS THE FRONT PASSES...PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF HIGH
CLOUDS...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LOWER LEVEL AND NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO DIVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
FRIDAY. DEBATED ABOUT REMOVING INHERITED POPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH THE GFS CONTINUING A PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE...DECIDED NOT TO REMOVE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS
HOW THE LOW OF THE BAJA COAST MIGRATES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THE LOW AND PUSHES SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW...WHICH HELPS TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS IN THE AREA
WHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ALOFT...MEANWHILE THE EC REMAINS
SLOWER AND DRY. THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE MVFR STRATUS CLOUD DECK ALONG AND
EAST OF A KVTN TO KBBW LINE WILL ERODE.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT...WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK EXPECTED AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS EARLY IN THE WEEK NEARING RECORD
TERRITORY.

CURRENT RECORD HIGHS...MON...TUES...WED FOR CLIMATE SITES...
NORTH PLATTE...69/1951...67/2003...66/1888
VALENTINE...71/2002...68/1989....66/1896
BROKEN BOW...67/1934...74/2002...67/1913
IMPERIAL...72/1951...67/2002...72/2003.

CURRENT RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR MON...TUES...WED...
NORTH PLATTE...36/2006...31/1995...32/1942 & 1931
VALENTINE...38/2006...34/1934...34/1942 & 1931.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
CLIMATE...MASEK