Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 262312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

H5...there is a broad ridge over the south central CONUS. Closed low
moving into the Great Basin and another over south central Canada
with cutoff low over the Northeast CONUS.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Outlooked again today with slight risk over the southeast Nebraska
Panhandle and southwest Nebraska and marginal along and south of
Highway 2. Forecast challenge will be timing of system Moving out
of Great Basin. Looking like a later show tonight than last night.
Surface high pressure over western Nebraska this morning with dew
points in the 30s and low 40s. Upslope component over northeast
Colorado and the eastern plains of Wyoming. Stronger wave ejecting
out of trough over the Great Basin but not progged into the
western Panhandle until 00z. HRR and Nam quite similar with the
timing. 850mb low level jet 40kts developing over northeast
Colorado into the southern Nebraska Panhandle through 00z and then
migrating with the wave east into southwest Nebraska through 3z.
Will slow the progression of precipitation east this evening and
continue it over portions of the area through Saturday. Lows
tonight again cool and have gone with cooler guidance again.
Shouldn`t see a 33 like last night over southern Sheridan county
but some areas of the Pine Ridge will possibly see an upper 30.
Strong north flow on Saturday with rain ending over north central
zones O`neill through the day. Have gone cooler again with highs
in the low to mid 60s. Cold raw day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

With Strong upper low anchored over northern Minnesota we will see
fast northwest flow with schc precipitation as weak waves move
through fast northwest flow...timing issues. Then there will be
several backdoor cold fronts dampen the temperatures especially over
northern Nebraska.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Regional radars show numerous showers and thunderstorms upstream
in the NEB Panhandle, northeast CO, and southeast WY thus the
immediate aviation concerns revolve around thunder/shower
chances. Current thinking is thunderstorms will affect the eastern
NEB Panhandle and far western NEB between 7 and 9 PM CDT.
Thereafter showers likely to develop/move across the rest of
western NEB and north central NEB into the late evening and then
overnight. Initially, there will exist a threat for strong to
severe thunderstorms this evening. Precipitation chances then
continue through tomorrow morning with chances remaining over
north central NEB tomorrow afternoon.

Ceilings are expected to deteriorate to sub-VFR through the small
hours late tonight across portions of western NEB with greater
confidence of poorer ceilings in the Sandhills on north towards
the SD border. Easterly winds at the present time will shift and
become northerly late tonight and will then persist through


Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Lewellen on the North Platte River above McConaughy will remain in
bankfull state through the weekend with rises into the middle of
next week. Have continued the river statement. Increased
precipitation tonight moving across the Panhandle may contribute
to the rise on the North Platte River above McConaughy.




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