Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 031819
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
119 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

AT 08Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN WRN NEBR
BEHIND DEPARTING MCS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. WRN NEBR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND APPEAR TO BE
DEVELOPING IN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF AN 850
MB JET. TEMPERATURE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH DWPTS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST SHOULD END ACROSS THE WEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THIS
AFTERNOON TO RESIDE FROM NEAR LA JUNTA CO THROUGH GLD KS WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SCTRL NEBR. WRN NEBR WILL BE JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH AN UPSLOPE NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT.
WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIES AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST...SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
1000-500MB THKNS DIFLUENCE WILL BE LOCATED FROM WRN NEBR INTO THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY AS AN H3 JET EXTENDS FROM AZ THROUGH CO. THIS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. IN
FACT...ONE OR TWO MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN CO/SERN
WY AND ALSO IN SWRN NEBR AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
MODEL SIMILARITIES SYNOPTICALLY...RESULTING OUTPUT DIFFERS
LARGELY. USING A MODEL BLEND APPROACH...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SERN PNHDL
AND SWRN NEBR WITH 30-50 POPS ACROSS THE NCTRL. BY LATE
AFTN...0-3KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS SWRN
NEBR WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR IN THE FRONT RANGE AREAS OF
NERN CO AND SERN WY. 800MB COMPUTED CAPES INCREASE TO 1500-2500
J/KG BY EARLY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE OVERNIGHT. AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST FOR
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WITH A SLIGHT RISK ALL AREAS TO
THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE GREATER CONCERN COVERAGE
WISE. DESPITE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FAVORS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH ARE LIKELY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1 TO
1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR PERSIST...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED BY THURSDAY
WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG WEST COAST AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW ANCHORED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH KANSAS AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS...AS WELL AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THEIR RECOVERY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION...WHICH MUDDLES THE PICTURE FOR THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WEST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN TRACK EAST. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SEVERE AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CREATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING AND HELPS PUSH THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CWA AS IT VEERS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ACTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO TRANSITION AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH
BECOMES CUT-OFF....AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE HOLDS
FIRM. THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
STREAM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. NUMEROUS
WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS BETWEEN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS IN REGARDS TO PLACEMENT/AMPLITUDE/TIMING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BECOME MUCH MORE REFINED AS THESE DETAILS
BECOME BETTER RESOLVED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TWO AREAS OF
DEVELOPMENT...ONE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND ONE TO THE
WEST. BOTH AREAS WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. TIMING IS A LITTLE
LESS UNCERTAIN AND HAVE A LARGE WINDOW WITH VCSH/VCTS AND TRIED
TO PIN POINT THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WITH A TEMPO. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE MODIFIED AS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. AFTER ACTIVITY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT MVFR STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE...AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE
RIVER SYSTEMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. WHILE ROSCOE AND BRADY WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO THIS WEEKEND...THE
STAGE AT NORTH PLATTE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12.80
FEET. AT THIS LOCATION...A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. RIVER
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT LISCO THIS EVENING
WHILE REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AT LEWELLEN.
RIVER STAGES ARE FORECAST TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE STAGE AT LEWELLEN IS CURRENTLY 8.60 FEET...ABOVE THE
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE OF 8.5 FEET. THIS STILL REMAINS VERY NEAR
THE PEAK STAGE DURING THE JUNE FLOODS OF 2011.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND AGAIN AT TIMES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND THIS RUNOFF COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS
TO RISE IN SOME AREAS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING
FORECASTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG





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