Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 280052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
752 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Vort max seen on water vapor across central Wyoming. Lift
associated with this disturbance across western SD and NE is
aiding scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon.
Another wave across Idaho will be a player tonight as it tracks
into northern Wyoming. This should help to continue to generate
scattered thunderstorm activity early this evening across northern
Wyoming, and then flow aloft should guide these toward northwest
Nebraska late tonight into Friday morning. Southeast moist upslope
flow will aid in destabilization Friday afternoon across the
western half of Nebraska, when additional convective development
is expected. Winds aloft could support some storm organization and
a severe storm or two later Friday afternoon. Otherwise expect
near seasonal highs for this time of year, in the mid to upper

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Weather highlights in the long term period revolve around mild
temperatures, near or slightly below seasonal normal values, and
opportunities for showers/thunderstorms this weekend. Upper level
ridge will continue to influence the western and central CONUS.
The ridge extends initially from the Four Corner states-Southern
Plains into the Northern High Plains Friday night. The upper level
ridge will build westward this weekend and become more expansive
over the Intermountain West extending into the Canadian Prairies.
In the meantime, flow at low-levels will remain predominantly
southerly over western NEB through the weekend owing to broad high
pressure at the surface and at 850 hPa over the Upper Great Lakes
and much of the Upper Midwest this weekend. This will promote
increasing moisture transport over western and central NEB with
surface dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s during the day and
precipitable water values peaking between 1.25 and 1.5. The
latter amounts to about 125% to 150% of normal with the greatest
moisture available in the column Friday night and Saturday.
Meanwhile, the combination of a weak disturbance embedded within
the flow tracking across the High Plains and moderate instability
as seen by MLCAPE and MUCAPE should be conducive for increased
shower and thunderstorm chances given the moisture in place. Most
confident with thunderstorms in the west Friday night. Of which,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to be ongoing
at the start of the period in portions of the higher terrain and
the Panhandle into western NEB. Another disturbance is then
expected to affect the local forecast area with increased chances
for showers/thunderstorm Saturday evening and night, chances then
continue into Sunday.

The overall large scale pattern doesn`t see much change Monday
through Thursday. The upper level ridge continues to dominate the
western CONUS and builds westward more so over the Central Great
Basin compared to its position Saturday-Sunday. Concur with the
previous forecast package with respect to precipitation chances in
the extending period and overall confidence. Of which, guidance
continues to suggest periodic opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms in the new week and this could be attributable to
disturbances tracking along the periphery of the ridge. Will
continue to fine-tune the forecast Monday and beyond with respect
to precipitation chances as details and guidance allows for more


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 752 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Scattered thunderstorms in the Nebraska Panhandle will remain well
west of the KLBF and KVTN terminals overnight. On Friday,
thunderstorms will again be possible, and should remain west of
the terminals through late afternoon. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions at KLBF and KVTN the next 24 hours.




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