Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 240839
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
339 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low along the
Utah/Nevada border with a deep trough of low pressure extending
south into the Gulf of California. East of the trough, a blocking
high was located over the LP of Michigan with a low south of the
high over the northern Gulf of Mexico. High amplitude south
southwesterly flow extended from eastern New Mexico into Manitoba
Canada. Within this flow, numerous shortwaves were noted and have
led to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms over night
across most of western and north central Nebraska. The exception
was over far eastern portions of the forecast area which have
remained dry overnight. Temperatures overnight were in the upper
40s in the eastern panhandle, to the middle 50s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Over the next 24 hours precipitation chances along with highs
today will be the main forecast concerns. With respect to highs
today: With cloud cover expected to persist over the next 12
hours, temperatures today will only see a slight diurnal increase
this afternoon. Yesterday, we saw highs in the 50s and lower 60s.
With the front farther east and overcast skies today, readings
should top out in the 50s. The MET guidance was coolest of the
statistical guidance today and was utilized for the forecast.
Strong mid level warm air advection, will begin to weaken later
this morning, decreasing the threat for pcpn temporarily. This mid
level warm air advection will increase later this evening into
the overnight with increasing precipitation chances across central
and eastern portions of the forecast area. This is in response to
the surface front being pushed further east as the upper level
low lifts from Utah into Wyoming. As for thunderstorm chances:
With the forecast area being well behind the front today, surface
instability will be nil. However there is some limited elevated
instability per h800 lifted indices, across the eastern quarter of
the forecast area. That being said, did include a mention of
thunder in the east over the next 24 hours. Lows tonight will be
in the 40s, with upper 30s possible in the nern panhandle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A closed H5 low over WY, embedded in a large Western U.S. trough,
travels northeast across the Dakotas and into far western Ontario by
Tuesday evening. As the low passes by, western Nebraska transitions
from southwest to nearly zonal flow. The trough refocuses over the
Great Lakes while a ridge builds over the Rockies late week, placing
Nebraska into northwest flow. At the surface, the cold front exits
far southeast Neb. Monday afternoon. High pressure builds in off the
higher terrain Tuesday, and a second high drops from the northern
Plains Friday.

Monday... Strong mid level fgen associated with the low in WY/SD,
wrap around moisture from the sfc low in IA, and isentropic lift
contribute to rain shower activity throughout the day. With the
greatest moisture across eastern Neb and little surface forcing,
potential for large precip totals is smaller than over the weekend.
Lowered max temps a degree or two toward the cooler MET guidance to
account for continuous cloud cover, off-and-on rain showers, and
strong CAA/north winds. H85 temps struggle to surpass 5C. Highs in
the lower/mid 50s equate to nearly 20 degrees below normal.

Tuesday through Saturday... The succession of surface high pressures
and a ridge aloft will keep moisture chances at bay. Primarily
northerly flow at H85 prevents WAA across the region. Daytime highs
stay nearly steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s and nighttime lows
in the lower 40s. Lows drop into the 30s across NW Neb. Tuesday
morning, but partly/mostly cloudy sky precludes any real frost
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Isolated thunderstorms and widespread rainshowers continue over
western and central Nebraska. Ceilings drop in and out of mvfr and
ifr. Ceilings will drop into ifr categories through the early
morning on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the day on Sunday.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Power


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