Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 252341
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

...00z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

An upper level shear axis will remain over the region through
Tuesday. This feature along with the presence of a low level
frontal boundary will keep the threat for showers and
thunderstorms going. At this time, it appears that the greatest
potential for showers and thunderstorms will generally be near and
south of the I-44 corridor where there will be a bit more in the
way of focus.

The threat for severe storms looks very low at this time given the
high amounts of moisture in the atmosphere. However, this abundant
moisture and the overall weak mid/upper level flow will continue
the potential for locally torrential rainfall and flash flooding.

As for temperatures tonight, it looks like most areas should fall
into the lower 70s. If skies can manage to clear, there will be
some potential for fog. However, confidence remains somewhat low
regarding fog potential. Highs on Tuesday should be warmer than
what we saw today given less in the way of precipitation and cloud
coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

That low level frontal boundary will not move all that much for
the remainder of the work week. This will keep the threat for
showers and thunderstorms going. If anything, the upper level
support will get slightly better as we slip into more of a
northwesterly flow aloft by later this week into the weekend. With
atmospheric moisture remaining above normal, the threat for
locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding will persist.

As one would expect, precipitation and clouds will have an impact
on temperatures. High temperatures should be slightly below normal
with highs generally in the middle to upper 80s. Lows will mainly
be in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Low confidence VFR conditions are expected through this cycle.
There is a lack of confidence in terms of exact location of storm
development, especially tomorrow afternoon. Think at this time VCs
will suffice for now. In addition to convection challenges,
clearing may help with fog development overnight. It wouldn`t be
impossible for fog to be added later this evening or overnight if
clearing trends continue.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Frye


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