449
FXUS63 KSGF 011719
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some mild heat and rain relief today and Wednesday before
  heat, humidity, and isolated rain chances (15-30%) return for
  the Independence Day Weekend and onwards.

- Greatest chance for precipitation is Sunday and Monday
  (30-45%) due to a signal for a weak front/trough passage.
  Details are still uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A mid- and upper-level shortwave trough is easily identifiable
on mid-level water vapor imagery with dry air and subsidence
pushing southward behind a mid-level front. Surface obs show
that the attending surface cold front has already dropped south
of the area with weak northerly winds, cooler air, and a low
cloud deck developing in the region. Meanwhile, a pronounced
mid- and upper-level ridge is observed across the western CONUS,
slowly translating eastward.

The cooler air behind the front pushing up the Ozark Plateau
may produce some light patchy fog this morning, but mainly
looking at low clouds through the early morning hours before
subsidence clears skies later today. The low clouds should keep
low temperatures this morning in the upper 60s to near 70.


Some mild heat and rain relief today and Wednesday:

Cooler and drier air will advect in behind the front.
Additionally, the surface high is progged to settle right over
the Ozarks by tonight. As a result, highs will stay in the
middle 80s today and Wednesday. The drier air and clear skies will
also allow lows to drop into the lower to middle 60s tonight
and Wednesday night. While only slightly cooler, it will provide
some mild relief to the heat, humidity, and rain experienced
the past week or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Heat and humidity return for Independence Day Weekend:

The aforementioned ridge is forecast to enter the region
Thursday, which will kick the surface high out to the east. This
will allow southerly flow, warm air and moisture advection, and
compressional warming to take place, slowly raising temperatures
and humidity into the Independence Day Weekend. Highs Thursday
trough Sunday look to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with the
slightly warmer days occurring Friday (Independence Day) and
Saturday. Lows will also be warmer in the lower to middle 70s.

Forecast temperatures have slightly decreased from previous
forecasts. However, the persistence of forecasted >97.5th
percentile moisture will still bring Heat Index values into the
90-100 range, possibly locally higher. For example, the NBM has
Branson at a 30-50% chance of exceeding 95 F (current forecast
is 90-92 F for the Branson area) and the NBM mean Heat Index is
at 100 (current forecast is 97-102 for the Branson area).

While this is not "excessive" heat for early July, the above
normal humidity and increased/extended activity outdoors during
the Independence Day weekend will make people more susceptible
to heat-related impacts. So, make sure to plan accordingly for
any extended outdoor activities, including packing plenty of
water, having a plan for finding cool places for heat relief,
and knowing the signs of heat-related illnesses.


Isolated 15-30% rain chances Thursday through Saturday:

With troughing and a greater height gradient on the western edge
of the ridge across the Rocky Mountains, a low-level height
gradient will setup across the Plains. Global models suggest
precipitation chances along this height gradient. The eastern
edges of which will slowly inch into east Kansas and west
Missouri Thursday and into the weekend. This will bring 15-30%
chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
these days, mainly west of Highway 65 and north of I-44.


Greatest rain chances (30-45%) Sunday and Monday:

Cluster analysis shows good agreement in the summertime upper-
level high flattening out Sunday, which will allow modest flow
aloft to be near the region Sunday and Monday. There are still
quite a bit of differences in any shortwave progressions through
the modest flow aloft, but early signals point to a weak
front/trough sagging through the region Sunday and Monday,
increasing rain chances to 30-45% across the area.

AI guidance from the GEFS and ENS produce a 5% chance for severe
weather with this front/trough passage, but this could mainly be
CAPE-driven since the LREF outputs a >90% chance for less than
20 kts shear, and only a 10-30% chance for >15 kts of shear.
Therefore, no severe weather is expected with these rain
chances during the weekend, but trends will continue to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail for most if
not all of the TAF period. Did include some brief MVFR fog at
the sites around sunrise Wednesday morning. Light north winds
will eventually become light south winds on Wednesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Burchfield