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000
FXUS63 KSGF 152032
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Despite the lack of storms expected over the next day or two, there
are some weather concerns.

The area of high pressure that brought record lows to the region
and a widespread freeze will again drop temperatures to around the
freezing mark for areas generally along and south of I-44 overnight
tonight. The frost advisory that was in place has been continued,
as there were little changes to the forecast lows overnight. Some
locations may see temperatures fall into the upper 20s but there
should be isolated.

Part of the reason we did not upgrade to a freeze warning hinged on
the departure of the surface high. As it slides east of the
region, winds will begin to increase and become rather gusty. This
is expected to keep temperatures from falling drastically.

The increasing winds from a tightening surface gradient will also
become the concern for fire weather as relative humidities will b
rather low. see the fire weather section for more information.

The winds will be another concern for tomorrow as well. With winds
gusting at times to 40 mph, wind headlines may need to be added.
This would likely only be for areas west of I-49, but confidence
is low that we would meet criteria at this time so held off
issuing anything for winds tomorrow.

A weak front will move through the region Thursday and bring a
limited chance for some showers to the Ozarks. With the system
having to work through the dry air that will be in place from
Wednesday, only light precipitation is anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

12z suite of model output offers no major changes to the extended
portion of the forecast. Friday into the first half of the weekend
look to be quiet and mild as shortwave ridging builds into the
area.

The flow aloft will remain fast and another shortwave is expected
to affect the region Sunday into early Monday. Models are in
better agreement with the system for Sunday timing wise and have
increase Pops a bit. Given the progressive nature of this system,
moisture return will be limited. As a result, have continued the
mention of light rain and kept thunder out of the forecast.

Shortwave ridging builds back into the area for early next week
and temperatures should warm to above average levels. Lows around
50 and highs in the 70s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

High pressure moving across the Ozarks region will allow for VFR
flight conditions to remain over the area through the forecast
period. Low level wind shear will impact flight concerns in
vicinity of the Joplin terminal during the overnight hours,
otherwise no impacts to flight area expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to 40mph at
times combined with relative humidity values from 25 to 35
percent will produce significant fire weather concerns for late
Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. A departing high
pressure and a developing low over the plains will produce a
rather tight surface pressure gradient which will allow for gusty
winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44 will have the best
potential for significant fire weather conditions. this prompted
the issuance of a fire weather watch from 11 am through 7pm
Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ058-070-
     071-080>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Hatch
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch