Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 140459

1159 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

...Update To Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Temperatures more typical of late October, rather than mid
September have been observed across the region today. After lows
well into the 40s to start the day, mid afternoon readings have
been in the low to mid 60s.

Clear skies and light winds will aid in radiational cooling
conditions tonight. Could see some cirrus stream in from the west
late. As a result, coldest temperatures will be in the valleys of
the eastern Ozarks. 40s will once again be common with upper 30s
in the typically colder valleys out east.

Mid/high level moisture will gradually increase across the region
on Sunday. Light winds will become southerly with time and modest
warm air advection should get temperatures back into the upper 60s
to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Well advertised cold front will begin affecting the region late
Sunday night into Monday. 12z suite of model output not as bullish
with rain chances with this system. The brunt of the upper wave
will traverse the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region. The
trailing vort lobe and surface cold front across our area will
have initial support from the entrance region of an upper level
jet Monday morning, but this support will quickly wane and deep
layer convergence will fall apart as the front moves deeper into
the area. As a result, have placed best chances for rain across
portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and central Missouri,
tapering off to slight chance/low end chance across south central
Missouri. The front will be slow to clear the area and additional,
though low, rain chances will persist into midweek, especially
across the southwestern half of the area.

Temperatures will remain below average through the week, with the
coolest conditions around midweek. A gradual warming trend is
expected for the latter half of the week into next weekend as
readings get back to near average for mid September.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions will occur
overnight through Sunday evening and beyond. A broken high cloud
deck will occur overnight with the clouds scattered out some
during the day Sunday. Surface winds will be light and variable
tonight and will become south to southeasterly late Sunday
morning as surface high pressure is east of the region.




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