National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KSGF 080518
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1118 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

The main forecast concern will be the precipitation, precipitation
type, and temperatures for Saturday.

High clouds increased today over the region, but a nice south wind
brought mild temperatures to the area. Temperatures in the 60s
were common. Even areas which still have some snow cover were in
the lower 50s over south central MO.

A sfc front now to the west and northwest of the area will shift
into the northwest cwfa late this evening, then through all but
the far southeast cwfa by daybreak Saturday. Some guidance,
particularly high resolution guidance is producing some light qpf
behind the front over the northwest cwfa. Guidance is already
overdoing moisture return somewhat over the area and have only
modest faith in precip developing tonight, but will hold out the
possibility of some drizzle/very light rain overnight north of
I-44.

Weak boundary layer winds and some actual limited moisture return
over the southern cwfa may allow some fog to develop along and
south of the MO Ozarks Plateau late tonight and will mention at
least patchy wording for now.

Better chances for rain/precip will occur Saturday. Cold air
advection and slight cooling below 800mb may support a mix or
changeover to wet snow over the northwest cwfa. Given the progged
sfc temperatures, we are next expecting much if any adverse travel
impacts, but some minor accumulation may occur on elevated or
grassy surfaces over southeast KS into west central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Some precip will linger Saturday evening. Again, will have to
watch trends with temperatures and the timing of precip with some
chances for a little bit of a change over to wet snow.

High pressure will move through the region Sunday then a couple of
days of south or southwest winds will boost temperatures well up
into the 60s or possibly low 70s Monday and Tuesday.

Another front will shift southeast through the area Tuesday night,
but there is still a persistent discrepancy between the GFS and
ECMWF concerning the placement/strength/timing of shortwave and
associated sfc low moving through the area Tue night/Wed. In
general the ECMWF remains stronger with this system with more
precip and a rain-snow transition. The GEM and GFS are less
impressive. Will continue to mention a chance of rain Tuesday
night/Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday: Looks quiet with fairly seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

First shortwave which pushed through this evening did not have
much low level moisture, in fact quite dry in the lower levels
evaporated any precipitation before reaching the ground. Surface
cold front was shifting southeast into the far northwestern part
of the CWA late this evening and should push through the area
during the overnight into morning hours Saturday. Ceilings will
gradually lower as lower levels moisten up overnight with some
MVFR conditions expected by late in the overnight and the
beginning of light rain as the next shortwave moves into the area
towards morning in the western CWA. The MVFR conditions and light
rain will likely last through much of the day with rain ending
during the late afternoon or early evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg