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000
FXUS63 KSGF 111807
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

One more warm day is in store before much colder air plunges back
into the region tonight. Temperatures will soar into the middle
70s to around 80 degrees today which only make the return to
colder temperatures more unpleasant.

Low level moisture will advect into the region today on gusty
southerly to southwesterly winds. This will keep fire weather
conditions below critical levels although the gusty winds will
result in a limited to elevated fire weather risk.

A shortwave trough over the central Rockies will track eastward
into the central Plains today and across the mid Missouri River
Valley tonight. In response a surface low pressure will develop
over eastern Kansas this afternoon then track east toward the Ohio
River Valley tonight. While moisture will increase in advance of
this system it will lack in overall depth and quality.

However strong 500 MB height falls and the arrival of 110 kt upper
level jet will interact with strong frontal scale forcing to provide
at least a chance of showers if not thunderstorms. Progged most
unstable CAPE will be on the order of a few hundred J/KG while
strong deep layer shear will be in place. In general expect an
increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening along
and ahead of the front, and initially focused near the surface low
track across central Missouri. If the updrafts within the
convection can survive the strong shear the potential for an
localized strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out.

A shield of precipitation initially in the form of rain will overspread
central and northern Missouri tonight and wrap southward into the
Ozarks overnight. The rain will mix with snow overnight from north
to south as much colder air advects southward. Little if any
accumulation is expected at this time.

Strong cold air advection will develop behind the front tonight as
northwesterly winds increase into the 25 to 40 mph range. Higher
gusts over 40 mph will be possible as a strong 925-850 MB low
level jet streaks southward in the wake of the exiting surface
low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

Chilly temperatures can be expected Wednesday in the wake of the
passing storm system. Temperatures will begin to rebound Thursday
in response to 500 MB height rises and a southwesterly wind.

A shortwave trough and weak front will slide into area later
Friday and may produce a chance of light rain but medium range
models differ on solutions.

Otherwise relatively mild weather is in store from late week into
Saturday. A northwesterly flow aloft will become re-established
from late this weekend into next week opening the door to more
cold frontal passages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

Brisk and gusty southerly winds will continue for the remainder
of this afternoon. A strong cold front will then push through the
region late this evening with winds becoming strong and gusty out
of the northwest. A band of rain showers will also accompany the
front...along with developing MVFR ceilings. We are then
expecting a band of rain changing to light snow to shift east
across the area late tonight. IFR visibilities are expected to
accompany this snow...with ceilings also dropping down towards the
higher-end IFR range. Skies will then clear Wednesday morning with
brisk and gusty northwest winds continuing.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann