Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
544 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

High pressure will begin building into the region today resulting
in sunny skies and dry conditions. Winds will start off somewhat
brisk out of the north this morning but will tend to diminish
throughout the day. High temperatures should be close to normal
with most areas warming into the upper 60s.

That high pressure will build overhead tonight resulting in clear
skies, light winds, and cool temperatures. There is some low-end
potential for patchy, shallow ground fog. However, the setup does
not look good at this point for a more appreciable fog threat
(despite the recent rainfall). Lows tonight should dip into the
lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The start of the work week will feature dry conditions and a
warming trend. Highs by Tuesday should warm back into the upper

Models then bring a storm system out into the central U.S. from
Tuesday night into Wednesday. A fair amount of spread remains
regarding the eventual track of the surface low associated with
this system. Some models track it along the Missouri/Arkansas
border while others have it moving east across central Missouri.

It does look like an elevated mixed layer (EML) will advect over
the region ahead of this system with Gulf of Mexico moisture
returning northward into the region. This should lead to moderate
amounts of instability (especially over southern Missouri) as the
system arrives Tuesday night. Deep layer shear will also be
supportive of organized convection.

One of the bigger questions to answer is whether or not convection
can fire along or ahead of an incoming cold front given that a
decent capping inversion will be in place. It is quite possible
that thunderstorms may be slightly post-frontal. Regardless,
CAPE/shear profiles alone are supportive of at least a limited
risk for strong to severe storms for Tuesday night and Wednesday

This system looks as if it will be fairly progressive moving
through. However, a widespread one to two inch rainfall is quite
possible across the region. With streams and rivers already high,
this may lead to some hydro concerns.

We may then see another day or two of quiet weather behind the
midweek system before active weather returns by next weekend.
Global models continue to indicate a large scale setup that would
favor more heavy rainfall and the potential for strong to severe
storms. Details regarding these potential hazards will become
clearer throughout the upcoming week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Mid level cloud deck has exited all but extreme south central
Missouri early this morning...and should be out of there by 12z.
Expect VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast
period. Winds will gradually veer around from the north to the
southeast by the end of the forecast period as high pressure
builds into the area both at the surface and aloft.

Although there is enough uncertainty to preclude mentioning in
the TAF at this time..given the recent rains and light winds
tonight...will need to monitor for overnight fog formation.




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.