Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 222019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
319 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Clouds and light rain/drizzle are hanging on over the eastern cwfa
underneath an upper low that is closing off over the region. Am
always a little worried about how fast we will clear out in these
situations, but went pretty close to guidance which indicates a
gradual clearing from the west to east tonight.

An active upper level pattern will continue with the approach of
another shortwave in the nw flow on Monday. Weak sfc high pressure
tonight will give way to a sfc trough/frontal passage Monday with
increasing and veering winds to the west and northwest. Looks dry
Monday despite the passage of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Western CONUS/east Pacific upper level ridging with a downstream
trough will keep the region in nw flow aloft. Gusty nw winds and
dry weather will continue Tue with below normal temperatures.
Temperatures will moderate after a chilly start Wed morning as
gusty winds back to the west ahead of another approaching sfc

There is decent agreement that a clipper-like system will move
southeast into the upper Midwest with a trailing sfc cold moving
through Friday. Models are trending toward a drier forecast
with the fropa, but will still maintain pops over the eastern cwfa
for now and watch trends. We could see temperatures near freezing
late in the week behind the front.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low clouds on the backside of an upper level
low and sfc cold front will clear form west to east. KJLN has
already cleared and the other sites are expected to clear over the
next few hours. Weak high pressure will move into the area
tonight, then a sfc trough will veer and increase winds to the
west late in the taf period.




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