Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 192347 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening and Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently building east into the Plains
this afternoon. The region remains in a northwest flow pattern
aloft ahead of the ridge. A weak upper level disturbance will ride
through this northwest flow and develop convection across eastern
Nebraska into western Iowa and northern Missouri tonight. This activity
will then track to the southeast tonight into Wednesday morning.
The upper level ridge is expected to push far enough to the east
tonight to keep this activity just to the north and east and area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region
on Wednesday and will then remain across the central U.S. through
this weekend. A hot and dry airmass will be in place across the
region during this time as highs generally top out in the middle
to upper 90s each afternoon. Lows will generally remain in the low
to mid 70s each night. Mixing is expected to lower surface
dewpoints each afternoon, keeping heat index values generally in
the 97 to 104 degree range each afternoon.

A dry and warm airmass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will
keep the region capped late this week into the weekend keeping the
region dry during this time frame.

An upper level shortwave trough will push east across the northern
Plains early next week and will flatten the ridge some and push a
front south toward the region. The front will likely stall and wash
out over or near the area early next week, but will still produce
the potential for a few storms and slightly cooler temperatures
across the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A rogue, isolated thunderstorm has developed just east of the SGF
aerodrome. This will quickly dissipate within the next hour. VFR
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure
aloft builds over the region and shifts the storm track to our
northeast. Winds will be southerly tonight, becoming southwesterly
and gusty during the day Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan




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