Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 282321
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

A weak cold front is working its way east through the CWA early
this afternoon. A few thunderstorms have started to develop over
parts of central Missouri, and this area along with the eastern
Ozarks will be most favored for convection through the rest of
this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to
remain widely scattered, and most locations will remain dry. Weak
shear and only moderate instability will limit any severe weather
potential through tonight. Small hail, moderately gusty winds and
frequent lightning will still be possible with any thunderstorms,
however.

Temps tonight should fall into the low to mid 60s, with somewhat
drier air building in from the northwest. This slightly drier
airmass, along with a bit of ridging aloft, should help temper
thunderstorm chances significantly through the day Sunday. Save
for perhaps an isolated shower or storm over far southwestern
Missouri, it looks as if the Sunday will be a dry day for the vast
majority of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Models indicate a slow backing of the upper level flow from
Memorial Day through the middle of next week. The models have also
been consistent in bringing short wave energy through the central
Plains and then Mid-Mississippi Valley during the day on Memorial
Day during peak heating. This should result in at least scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity.

A stronger short wave trough will then dig and close off across
the northern Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday. This should drive
a cold front into, and eventually through the Ozarks from
Wednesday into early Thursday. This will continue the chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Cooler weather is then expected behind the front by the end of
next week with increasing potential for dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Widely scattered convection in progress across south-central into
central Missouri...but is north and east of the terminals and not
expected to affect them.

Expect VFR conditions across the terminal sites through the
forecast period. South to southwest winds are expected to become
light and variable overnight and remain that way during the day on
Sunday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede



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