Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 270015
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
715 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Ongoing thunderstorms were becoming more outflow structured across
southwest and south central Missouri this afternoon. This will
lead to further weakening with time, and we may consider
canceling the Severe Thunderstorm Watch early.

The main show will occur tonight as a line of thunderstorms
approaches the Kansas and Missouri state line toward midnight.

We think a few of these storms could become organized, with the
potential for damaging wind gusts and small hail. With 0 to 3 km
shear vectors screaming to the north northeast at 40 to 45 knots,
any northwest to southeast oriented line segments will have the
chance of spinning up some meso-vorts with a tornado risk.
However, it`s quite uncertain that any segments will evolve into
this northwest to southeast structure. This is more of a short
term forecast challenge.

Storms are expected to continue through the Highway 65 corridor,
and should weaken as they approach the eastern Ozarks.

Additional storms will possible Wednesday as the main cold front
shifts through southern Missouri during the daytime hours. There
is a severe risk for hail and wind east of Highway 65. All
precipitation should exit the Ozarks Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

A small window of quiet weather is expected Thursday into Friday
with mild temperatures.

The risk for organized storms will ramp up Friday night into
Saturday, as another negatively tilted storm system approaches
from the west.

This system will need to be monitored closely as several
ingredients could come together for an episode of severe
thunderstorms. There doesn`t appear to be any potential negatives
for Friday night and Saturday`s set up at the moment.

Sunday into Monday the pattern would offer another window of quiet
weather with mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Thunderstorms to the west of the taf
sites will gradually transition to a line or broken line of
storms, moving into the Joplin area toward 04z and Springfield-
Branson area toward 06z-07z. Strong winds are expected with the
line along with ifr visibility with rain/tstms. Low ceilings will
likely occur in the wake of the storms but will be hard to get
precise on the timing this far out.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA


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