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000
FXUS63 KSGF 080906
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
406 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 356 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Strong cold pool/meso high over KTBN has pushed a gust
front/outflow boundary all the way through the cwfa. Seeing
elevated convection over west central MO develop over the cold
pool. Storms training from north of KNVD to the Bolivar area pose
a small scale heavy rain/localized flooding risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Outflow from weakening convection is pushing through the cwfa.
Main concern will be potential redevelopment over the southern
cwfa this afternoon with daytime heating. With outflow pushing
fairly far the south now, not to sure we will see strong
convective redevelopment but will watch trends.

Precip will linger over much of the southeast cwfa early this
morning, gradually tapering off over the next few hours. Also
seeing some elevated convection well north of the low level
boundary, so will hold onto some scattered showers/isolated thunder
well into the morning hours in some areas, but do expect the
convection over KS into west central MO to weaken with time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Sfc high pressure will build into the region as an upper level
long wave troughing pushes well east of the area for Wed. As the
sfc high pushes east of the region late Wed night and Thu south return
flow should produce scattered convection in an arc northeast of
the remnant frontal boundary from eastern KS into the four state
se KS/ne OK/far sw MO/nw AR region late Wed night into early Thu.

Convective trends will then shift to the north a bit for Thu night
into early Friday as the low level front lifts north in response
to upper level ridging/increased low level warm air advection.

An unusually strong upper level low is expected to set up somewhere
north of the Great Lakes or Hudson Bay by this weekend with a
broad nw flow pattern over the U.S. Midwest by early next week.
This will push the subtropical ridge back to the south. This will
also sag a sfc front back south into the area early next week with
increased chances for periodic shower/tstms once again as a nw-se
oriented boundary sets up somewhere near or over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered convection will linger
early with some brief potential for mvfr/vfr ceilings...otherwise
expected vfr conditions. Some storm redevelopment will be possible
closer to the MO/AR border after 17z and will look at either a
vcts or prob30 group for KBBG during the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DSA
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA