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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tomorrow)
Issued at 222 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Warm and muggy conditions this morning will give way to what will
likely be the warmest day of the year thus far across the region.
Temperatures today will warm well into the mid to upper 90s as warm
air aloft surges into the region.  A few locations across western
Missouri and southeastern Kansas will come close to 100 degrees.

The one bit of good news is that afternoon mixing should be deep
enough to bring down slightly drier air, resulting in dewpoints
dropping into the mid to upper 60s (versus low 70s this morning).
This will keep heat indices largely in check, though values around
105 degrees will be common across the I-49 region.  A Heat Advisory
will be in effect from 1-8 PM for this region.

Despite the heat and humidity, precipitation will be hard to come by
today and this evening, owning to warm and dry conditions aloft.  While the
SPC Day 1 Outlook does technically clip the far northeastern corner
of the CWA, believe that all convective activity will remain north
and east of the CWA through at least midnight tonight.  After
midnight, a cold front will begin to approach from the north, which
may be just enough of a focus to set off a couple of storms.  That
front will continue south through the area on Sunday.  Despite this
being a very strong frontal boundary, only isolated storm coverage
is expected give the poor quality of the airmass ahead of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

As that front passes through the CWA from north to south on Sunday,
cooler and drier air will begin to advect into the area as deep
troughing sets up across the eastern half of the CONUS.  This will
result in a prolonged period of temperatures well below normal, with
much lower than normal humidity.  Dry weather is initially expected
through at least mid-week, with a few scattered
showers/thunderstorms then developing for the latter portion of the
workweek into next weekend.  This activity will fairly widely
scattered and largely tied to a diurnal cycle. High temperatures
will be in the low 80s through at least the end of the workweek,
with lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period as upper ridge of high
pressure remains in control across the region. Will see pressure
gradient tighten up on Saturday and some late morning through
afternoon mixing will lead to some surface gusts approaching 25
kts. Low level wind shear will be possible tonight with 35 to 40
kts of shear above the surface.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg