Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 181803
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
103 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
It was another fine day across the Ozarks. Despite a cold front
slicing through the region, temperatures ranged from the lower 70s
to the lower 80s. So far no precipitation had developed along this
frontal boundary, and it`s quite possible all locations remain dry
through the rest of the afternoon and evening.
This frontal system will stall out near the Arkansas and Missouri
state line tonight, and eventually push back north as a warm front
early Wednesday morning. A moist and unstable airmass across
southern Missouri will spread underneath a highly sheared belt of
westerlies. This cape - shear combination will be more than
sufficient for organized storms.
Given the uncertainty over boundary layer/low level de-
stabilization due to possible early convection and cloud cover, we
feel as though large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary risks. Therefore, at this time, no mention of tornadoes
will be inserted into the Hazardous Weather Outlook or Situation
One final item to mention, since thunderstorms will be possible
during the morning hours, the window of opportunity for severe
storms will be long in duration. Basically from mid morning into
the evening hours.
Post frontal thunderstorms are expected to continue into Wednesday
night, before shifting east of the Ozarks by Thursday morning.
A much cooler airmass will spread across the region for Thursday,
with highs only in the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
While temperatures will once again remain in the 60s on Friday, a
strong warming trend will begin on Saturday, and continue well
into the following work week.
A long wave ridge will build across the nation`s midsection
bringing a return of southerly winds into the Ozarks. The
combination of sun and south winds will force temperatures back
into the 70s on an afternoon basis.
No precipitation is expected Thursday through next Tuesday.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions through the rest of the afternoon and most
of the night.
However, a warm front will stall out near the Arkansas and
Missouri border early Wednesday morning and surge back northward
toward the Interstate 44 corridor Wednesday afternoon.
This feature will likely cause MVFR and IFR ceilings early
Wednesday morning for Branson and Springfield. Joplin is likely to
experience a smaller window of MVFR ceilings.
Pilots will also need to monitor radar information Wednesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the warm
front. A few of these storms could become strong to severe.
Surface winds will become light and variable tonight as the front
stalls out across southern Missouri. A return of south winds is
expected as the front shifts back to the north, especially for