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000
FXUS63 KSGF 131047
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014

...Warmer Today and Friday with Fire Weather Concerns...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Surface high pressure will migrate to the southeast today while
the upper pattern flattens out and 500 MB heights rise.

Warmer temperatures will return as southwesterly winds increase
and 850 MB temperatures rise. I have increased highs today with
expected readings in the middle to upper 60s at most locations.
This along with a dry airmass and gusty southwesterly winds will
result in elevated to significant fire weather concerns. See the
fire weather discussion below for more details.

Temperatures will remain relatively mild tonight as southwesterly
winds persist.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Another rather warm day can be expected Friday as the 850 MB
thermal ridge transitions across the area in advance of a weak dry
front. Wouldn`t be surprised if Friday`s temperatures are not
raised some more in later forecast. While surface dew points will
rise a bit, elevated fire weather concerns will continue Friday.

A shortwave trough now just off of the California coast will
track eastward and make its way into the lower Mississippi River
Valley by Saturday. Expect showers to increase primarily across
far southern Missouri Saturday and Saturday night as we will be on
the northern periphery of this system. Cannot a rule some isolated
thunder. Still expect another mild day on Saturday despite
increasing clouds.

A northern stream shortwave trough will slide southeastward across
Missouri River Valley later Saturday and Sunday as the upper
pattern undergoes amplification. This will allow Canadian high
pressure to build southward into the region Sunday in the wake of
the southern stream system passing to our south. The result will
be a return to colder weather.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures and dry weather are expected
for the early and middle portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 546 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions are expected
today into Friday morning across the area. Winds will pick up out of
the southwest and be gusty at times this afternoon. Winds will
stay breezing through the overnight hours becoming more southerly. Low
level wind shear concerns will also develop overnight tonight into
Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
with elevated fire weather conditions expected again Friday afternoon.

West to southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 25 mph
will develop late this morning and continue into the afternoon.
Meanwhile, temperatures warming into the mid and upper 60s along
with a very dry low-level air mass will drop afternoon humidities
into the 15 to 25 percent range.

The most critical fire weather conditions will occur from southeastern
Kansas into southwestern Missouri where winds will be a little
higher. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas generally
west of a line from Osage Beach to Branson. A Special Weather
Statement will be issued for the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks.

Humidities will be slightly higher Friday with winds a bit stronger
out of the southwest (15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 mph). We
are therefore looking at continued elevated fire weather
conditions. One note for Friday afternoon is that a weak cold
front will move south across the region. This front will result in
winds shifting to the north and becoming light from north to south
during the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055-056-066>069-077>081-088>095-101>103.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise
FIRE WEATHER...Foster