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394
FXUS63 KSGF 192300
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Issued a short fused heat advisory for the western cwfa with
mid/upper 70s dewpoints with temperatures reaching the low 90s.
Joplin/KJLN heat index was 106 deg F at 1 pm.

Main near term concern is for isolated storms in our far sw cwfa
through this evening. Low level moisture plume over the western
cwfa is in place while a weak low level boundary focuses moisture
convergence. These are relatively subtle features, but can see a
cumulus field along the MO/AR border into se KS. Negatives are a
lack of overall mid level moisture depicted well in metsat
imagery and some modest mlcin. If anything can get going this
afternoon/evening strong instability would make severe storms
possible, but likely with very limited areal coverage. Will
monitor.

Otherwise, Sunday looks to be a close repeat of today. Still
seeing a chance of a few storms with abundant low level moisture
remaining in place while a subtle upper level disturbance moves
across the area. Any showers/tstms would be skewed to favor the
afternoon/evening with diurnal heating.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Sunday night-Monday: The pattern of ill-defined shortwaves
coupled with moisture in place will help produce periodic chances
for showers/tstms into Monday. Cloud cover may hinder eclipse
viewing in this general scenario, but conditions will also be
highly variable.

Tuesday-Saturday: A cold front is still expected to move through
the region Tuesday with a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Deep northwest flow with a large scale upper level
ridge over the western conus will bring some dry/cooler weather
for the rest of the work week. A warming trend may begin by
Saturday as the pattern begins to transition back to more zonal
flow, but overall the weather behind Tuesday`s front looks like a
pleasant stretch.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A few scattered storms were developing in southeast Kansas into
southwest Missouri, northwest and north of JLN. Will need to
monitor this isolated activity along a boundary stretching into
south central MO over the next several hours. For now, am not
including any convection in TAFS, but may have to amend if those
storms get closer to JLN. Outside of any convection, expecting
VFR, but if we could get those storms at the terminal, could be a
brief period of MVFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077>079-
     088>090-093>095-101>103.

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg