Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 071805
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

A strong upper level trough is beginning to dig across the Upper
Midwest this morning and will drag down a strong cold front this
evening. We will see a mixture of sunshine and high and mid level
clouds today. Today will be mild with temperatures climbing in the
middle 50s. Winds will increase out of the west and southwest
today and shift to northwest by this evening with the passage of
the front. Winds gusts today will be approaching 35 mph this
afternoon and evening.

Fire weather conditions will be a concern but not technically
hitting Red Flag criteria for areas of southeast Kansas and
western Missouri. See the fire weather section below for more
details. Cloud cover rapidly moves in tonight and snow flurries or
light snow showers will be possible by early tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Monday will be very windy and much colder. Northwest winds will
gusts up to 40 to 45 mph at times. A wind advisory is looking more
likely for tomorrow. The high temperature will likely occur
shortly after midnight tonight and remain steady or slowly fall
during the day on Monday with temperatures likely around the lower
30s or upper 20s by the afternoon. Wind chills will be in the
teens to single digits during the day.

There will be enough moisture for flurries likely or bands of
light snow showers especially over central Missouri and the
eastern half of the Ozarks. There may be a light dusting of
accumulation at most but significant impacts are not expected. The
wind and cold will be the main weather story. Wind chills by
Monday night into Tuesday morning will be down to around zero
possible.

The deep trough over the eastern half of the U.S. hangs around
through Tuesday with cold weather through mid week for the Ozarks
region. Another cold front will move through Tuesday night into
Wednesday with no weather associated with it. This feature will
just reinforce the cold weather through Wednesday.

The trough begins to lift out of the area and the upper level flow
becomes more west-northwest by Thursday with a slow moderation of
temperatures for the end of the week. Temperatures will be back to
seasonable levels by Friday and Saturday. The weather looks mainly
dry for the rest of the week into the early part of the weekend.
Models still indicate another system on the horizon to watch in
about 8 to 9 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Winds will veer and become increasing
strong, particularly late in the taf period, behind a cold
frontal passage. A lack of low level moisture will keep
conditions vfr, but some flurries/snow showers will be possible
after 12z, mainly at KSGF and points north and east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift today, gusty winds will
occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural cover
fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in the
region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be on
the increase today and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close today),
but the basic message of harder to control outdoor burning
continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather forecast,
special weather statement, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Griffin


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