Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191115 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Skies were generally mostly clear across the area this morning.
There may be some patchy fog developing by sunrise near river
valleys and lakes this morning. Temperatures were in the upper 50s
at most locations. In fact...a couple locations may be close to
tying or breaking record lows this morning. Springfield and
Vichy-Rolla have the best chance of at least tying record lows. See
climate section below for more information on today`s record lows.
One interesting note to add is that Vichy-Rolla has either tied or
broken 4 record lows so far this week and could make that number 5
this morning in a row.

Southerly winds and sunshine with passing clouds should warm up
temperatures today back in the lower 80s for most locations. The
humidity will also slowly return as well this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Sunday will be a little warmer with most locations reaching the
middle to upper 80s. Upper level ridging and heights will rise
across the region with a summer time high building off to our west
across the Rockies and western High Plains. Temperatures in the
90s will be back by Monday and Tuesday and so will that heat
index. Heat index values will be approaching 100 to 105 next week
with hot and muggy conditions more typical of July for the
Missouri Ozarks.

A shortwave will ride on the outside influence of the summer time
ridge across the Midwest and Great Lakes Region. This will bring
down a weak cold front into the area by mid week next week and
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The ECMWF is a little more
bullish on precip chances than the GFS. It appears the ridge get a
firm grip across the southern and central Plains region with the
main storm track across the Upper Midwest late next week. This
will mean hot and dry weather for the Ozarks with highs in the
90s...lows in the 70s and lots of humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Primary forecast challenge continues to be patchy ground fog
affecting area TAF sites. Cross over temperatures have been
reached/exceeded in most location, resulting in patchy ground fog
that will last another hour or two before burning off. By and
large, MVFR visibility restrictions will be the norm, but a brief
period of IFR/LIFR will be possible (especially at BBG).
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and light southeasterly winds for
much of the remainder of the forecast. The only exception will be
another bout of light fog at BBG overnight tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Here are the record lows across the area for this
morning...Saturday morning:

         Saturday Morning (7/19)
              Forecast  Record
Springfield     57      57 (1947...1984...and 2009)
Joplin          59      56 (2009)
West Plains     56      54 (2009)
Vichy           56      56 (2004 and 2009)

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan
CLIMATE...Griffin




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