Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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556
FXUS63 KSGF 240438
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1138 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Seven day forecast period looks to be unsettled with several
strong upper impulses affecting the region and each bringing the
chance of convection to the area. Currently, the warm front has
lifted north of the area and cloud cover has just about completely
dissipated across the CWA within the warm sector. This has aided
temperatures to quickly rocket into the low to mid 70s for most of
the CWA. Water vapor imagery shows upper low has shifted into
Utah. Surface low was analyzed across eastern Colorado with a dry
line extending southward into New Mexico. Convection is expected
to form along and ahead of the dry line this afternoon and evening
to our west.

Our main short term focus will be with strong winds on Friday
ahead of the main low as it shifts eastward and also with
convection during the day Friday into Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

For tonight, temperatures will be mild with lows from the upper
50s to low 60s as low level warm advection increases. Showers/a
few storms may make it into western sections of the CWA towards
12z. Weak instability should limit thunder chances during the
morning, but a break in the coverage and cloud cover during the
afternoon could increase instability by the mid to late afternoon
and continue through the evening hours. The low will track east
across Kansas and OK during the day/evening with the best
instability remaining further south. We are most likely looking at
a line of convection during the afternoon and evening with mainly
a damaging wind and hail risk. We can`t rule out an isolated QLCS
tornado risk, but the main risk will be with damaging wind if a
line can form this far north.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

The upper level low will track across the area on Saturday with
showers and scattered thunderstorms continuing. Instability
associated with the upper low may aid in producing some stronger
storms with hail. This should track off to the east by evening
with upper ridging building back into the area, albeit short-
lived.

Temperatures should rise back into the 60s/70s again on Sunday
with the next upper system moving into the area Sunday evening
into Monday. This system will also have 35-45 kts of 0-6 shear and
some limited instability, so can`t rule out another limited severe
risk.

The pattern will remain unsettled through next week, however
models are showing some differences with timing of these systems
beyond day 4, but we can`t rule out showers and thunderstorms in
the Wednesday and Thursday time frame after a dry Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

VFR conditions will continue into Friday morning before a line of
showers and storms move in by midday to Friday afternoon. This
line of showers and storms will bring brief drops to MVFR Friday
afternoon and have PROB30 groups for this potential. Southerly
winds will remain gusty and elevated with some gusts over 30 knots
likely for SGF and JLN for Friday. Due to strong winds and a low
level jet off the surface, have included non convective low level
wind shear for all TAFs through early Friday morning. Take offs
and landings may be a little bumpy for flights.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin



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