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000
FXUS63 KSGF 011651
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1051 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Changes to Winter Weather Headlines...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

While the widespread organized precipitation ended across the region
last night, we continue to see waves of showery/drizzley
precipitation. The last shot of this precipitation is now
overspreading areas along and north of the I-44 corridor. This is
in response to a frontogenetic zone (850-700 mb layer), weak
instability, and a favorable upper level jet position. Reports
back across southeastern KS indicate that this precipitation is
falling as light sleet, light freezing rain, and light snow.

Expectations into this afternoon are for this showery
precipitation to continue generally north of I-44. A dusting to a
half inch of snow (and perhaps some sleet) will be
possible...especially up towards Highway 54. Little to no ice
accretion is expected given the high sun angle and temperatures
only marginally below freezing.

With all of that being said, we have made changes to headlines.
The Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather
Advisory. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 3 PM
along and north of the I-44 corridor but will be allowed to expire
at noon south of the interstate.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.

The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.

The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.

Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.

A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.

This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.

Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.

The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.

The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.

Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR conditions will continue this morning across the area.
Main area of precipitation has exited the area, but freezing
drizzle will persist through the morning with the low
ceilings/fog. Ceilings should improve into MVFR conditions during
the afternoon and should see precipitation come to an end.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ082-083-
     090>098-101>106.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg