


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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930 FXUS63 KSGF 280540 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon, decreasing by sunset. Rain rates of 1 to 3 inches an hour and an isolated strong downburst or two will be possible in the strongest cells. Additional morning and afternoon storms on Saturday. - Daily heat index values in the middle to upper 90s into early next week. - Daily shower and thunderstorm activity through next week, mainly isolated to scattered in nature. Greatest coverage will be Sunday night into Monday with a frontal passage. No all day washouts expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The area remained on the northwest side of a mid level high over the southeast US with a few passing mid level vorts. A very moist airmass has moved into the area with the latest RAP analysis showing PW values near a record 2.0in. An outflow boundary moved into the area this morning and with morning heating, scattered storms developed across the area. Wind shear is weak therefore slower storm motions and high PW values have led to very efficient rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Temps have cooled off into the 70s behind the outflow as a shield of light rain and clouds have moved in. This Afternoon through Tonight: Guidance suggests that the afternoon storms will continue, especially along and southeast of I-44 where the airmass is the most unstable. A few wind gusts to 40mph and isolated flooding will occur with the most concentrated cells however severe storms and widespread flooding is not expected. Guidance suggests that storm intensity and coverage will decrease towards sunset. Kept pops low for the first of the overnight hours however a low level jet looks to develop later in the night across Oklahoma and may nudge into southwest Missouri. HREF data suggests scattered showers and storms developing to our west and southwest and moving/developing into our area after 3am. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A near repeat could occur on Saturday as morning thunderstorms expand/develop with morning heating. Currently it appears that the area could be a little farther south than today therefore highest chances are along and south of Interstate 44. Pops may need to be increased if this area looks to still be the favored zone. May also have to reduce temps as well if clouds/precip look to linger longer into the day, however for now have kept highs in the middle 80s. Another low level jet Saturday night looks to cause more storm chances Sunday and again Monday with 50-70% chances now for both days. They dont look to be washouts however scattered showers and storms are a good bet. Localized heavy rainfall/isolated flooding and lightning will be the main concerns. Those with outdoor plans this weekend will need to keep an eye on the radar and forecasts and have alternate plans in case of thunderstorms. Ensembles show a slight pattern change Tuesday and Wednesday with a more northwesterly flow however 30 pops return for Thursday. High temps in the middle to upper 80s look likely however some areas could reach 90 where cloud cover is lowest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Satellite and surface obs depict cloud debris across the area amid weak 3-8 kt southerly winds. Despite broken cloud coverage, moist grounds from recent rains and weak winds may promote some patchy fog/mist growth between 08-14Z, especially at BBG where have included a prevailing category while TEMPOs at SGF and JLN. After 12Z, a band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop and move west to east. Redevelopment of pop-up showers and thunderstorms is then possible during the afternoon, but there is lower confidence in this depending on how strong the first batch of storms are. Otherwise, winds will stay southerly at 5-10 kts, with broken mid-level clouds dominating the skies. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Price