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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tomorrow)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A return to more typical summertime heat and humidity will commence
today, as a warm front lifts north across the region this morning.
This will result in much warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints,
especially across the northwestern portion of the CWA.  The
inherited Heat Advisory for far southeastern Kansas and western
Missouri will continue unchanged.

After a warm night tonight, the warmest day of the year so far
appears likely for Saturday, with temperatures well into the mid to
upper 90s area-wide.  Portions of the Osage Plains will flirt with
100 degrees during the afternoon hours.  The good news is that
daytime mixing looks to be deep enough to knock a couple of degrees
off of dewpoints during peak heating, though perhaps not enough to
preclude the need for another Heat Advisory for at least a portion
of the region.  For now, will run with a dry forecast for Saturday
afternoon and evening, though a few models are trying to break out
an isolated thunderstorm or two across central Missouri.  At this
point, though, it appears that capping should be strong enough to
keep PoPs rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

By Sunday, a strong shortwave will begin to dive southeast across
the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front south through the region.
Timing of the frontal passage looks to be Sunday afternoon and
evening, though some differences remain within the model suite.  A
few thunderstorms will be possible as the front passes, but the
threat at this time looks to be fairly isolated. Given the strength
of the front, an isolated stronger storm will also be possible
during this time frame.

Once the front passes through the region, a much drier and cooler
airmass will quickly build into the region for most of next week.
Highs in the low 80s (if not upper 70s in a few spots) and lows in
the 50s will be common area-wide.  With such a dry airmass in place,
precipitation chances will be quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions will occur at
the TAF sites this afternoon through Saturday morning and beyond.
Southwesterly winds, which could be gusty at times, will occur
this afternoon, then the winds will relax some this evening and
tonight before picking up Saturday morning. Winds will then pick
up and become more southwesterly Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise