Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 131135
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
635 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures will continue through Thursday, with
  temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Gusty south-
  southwest winds compliment the warm temperatures.

- A few isolated showers and non severe storms early this
  morning. This activity will dissipate by sunrise.

- There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms
  capable of producing hail up to the size of golf balls and
  damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph late this afternoon into
  tonight across portions of southeastern Kansas into central
  Missouri. The overall better severe potential looks to remain
  just northwest of the area through tonight.

- There is a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe storms capable of hail
  up to the size of golf balls and damaging winds across much of
  the area on Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours. There
  is an Enhanced (3/5) risk for severe storms just southwest of
  the area that may clip portions of far southern Missouri where
  larger hail will be possible.

- Temperatures return to near normal for mid March on Friday
  with drier weather expected for the weekend. Below normal
  temperatures return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

An upper level shortwave is currently pushing east through the
region early this morning. A few showers and storms continue to
occur ahead of the trough across portions of central Missouri
but will push out of the area in the next few hours as the
trough moves east. A warm air mass will remain in place across
the area as highs warm into the middle to upper 70s this
afternoon.

An upper level trough will continue to dig into the desert
southwest today. Ahead of the trough, surface low pressure will
develop and lift northeast across Kansas this afternoon and
evening. A warm front will extend east from the surface low into
central Missouri by this afternoon and should continue to lift
north this evening. Instability will increase along and ahead of
the warm front as moisture continue to advect into the region.
Dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s are expected to occur by
this afternoon. The cap should begin to erode along the warm
front this afternoon and especially this evening. Once the cap
weakens the warm front should be the focus for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop. The question is just exactly
where will the front be when the cap weakens and storms begin to
develop and how far north the front moves during the evening
hours.

South of the front, warmer temperatures in the mid levels
will occur which would result in a strong cap developing across
much of the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon and evening. A low
level jet will increase across the region late this afternoon
into this evening. As this occurs, storms will develop and
coverage should increase across the warm front which will be
near or just north of the northern portions of the area,
generally along and north of Highway 54. With the warm front
likely lifting north of the area this evening, the storm chances
should too. MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg, deep layer shear
around 40 kts, and steep mid level lapse rates will support
large hail up to the size of golf balls as the primary risk with
storms this afternoon and evening. Larger hail may be realized
if a thunderstorm becomes surface based, as a supercell would be
a favorable storm mode. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
remain a secondary hazard, while the tornado threat remains
very low (2%). The models continue to show the overall better
potential for storms and severe potential will be just to the
north/northwest of the area where less of a cap will be in
place. There is the potential that some elevated storms could
develop south of the warm front this evening and tonight with
hail being the main risk. The convection across northeastern
Kansas and northern Missouri could also form a cold pool and
move southeast overnight and could move into portions of the
area, but overall this activity should weaken as it moves
south.


Overall, expecting most of the convection to be focused along the
warm front, with lower chances within the warm sector through
this evening and better severe potential remaining just
north/northwest of the forecast area across northeastern Kansas
and northwestern Missouri closer to the surface low and warm
front. The exact placement of the warm front this evening
remains a key factor in the forecast and associated
precipitation chances in our area. If the front lifts north fast
enough and the cap holds strong across the warm sector, it is
possible that little to no convection occurs across the area
through this evening. This will be dependent on mesoscale
features.

The upper level trough will become cut off across the desert
southwest by Thursday. As this occurs additional shortwave
energy and an associated surface low lifts northwest of the
area with a cold front moving southeast through the region
Thursday afternoon/evening into the overnight hours. Ahead of
the front, highs will once again warm into the 70s on Thursday.
Current ensemble guidance suggests adequate instability and
shear will be present on Thursday afternoon and evening to
support the potential for severe storms across much of the area.
Model soundings indicate that the environment is favorable for
supercell storm mode initially before potentially growing
upscale into a line of thunderstorms or line segments. This will
be best resolved in the near term. The trend continues to
suggest that low level shear will remain on the weaker side,
therefore the tornado risk remains low (2%). The environment
supports large hail up the size of golf balls with larger hail
possible mainly just southwest of the area but could clip
portions of far southern Missouri Thursday afternoon/evening.
Damaging wind gusts will also be a risk, especially with any
line segments that develop Thursday evening and night.

Localized heavy rainfall may occur within some thunderstorms
given efficient rainfall rates. This will mainly be limited to
where multiple storms can track over the same locations in a
short period of time. Widespread flooding is not expected.
General rainfall amounts will range from 0.75 to 1.5 inches,
with localized heavier amounts possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The cold front will push out of the area by Friday morning with
a cooler and drier air mass moving into the region into the
weekend. Gusty north to northwesterly winds develop on Friday.
Highs will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Friday which
is near normal for mid March. Highs in the lower 60s will occur
on Saturday. An upper level trough will bring a cooler air mass
to the region region on Sunday and Monday. Highs by late
weekend into early next week may be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. This would suggest highs in the middle to upper 40s and
overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Any hard freezes into
mid to late March may pose a risk to susceptible early season
vegetation. A drier air mass will be in place this week with the
passage of the trough which will limit any rain chances this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A low level stratus deck has developed over portions of the
area early this morning and will be possible again tonight into
Thursday morning. This low level cloud deck should dissipate
this morning. Some patchy light fog will also be possible early
this morning in valleys and fog prone areas.

Gusty southerly winds will develop again this morning and
continue into tonight. Some scattered showers and storms will be
possible late this afternoon into tonight, but the overall
better chances will be northwest of the area. Confidence was not
high enough to include any mention of convection in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise


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