Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280737
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Some light fog will again be possible late tonight around Branson,
however the prospects for dense fog look low. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through Sunday. An approaching cold front
will then produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday evening across portions of southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann




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