Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 141737 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1237 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

...Update to Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday night)

A strong belt of westerlies was positioned overhead this morning
as a zonal flow structure was present over much of the lower 48.

Closer to the surface, high pressure had shifted east of the
Ozarks, allowing a return of southerly breezes. These southerly
winds combined with good sunshine today, will boost temperatures
into the 70s this afternoon. A dry air mass along with no forcing
features, will bring about dry weather today and tonight.

Rain chances will increase Monday morning as an upper speed max
passes to the north of the Ozarks. This positions the region
within the right entrance region of this jet max.

Meanwhile, a surface front will approach from the north, helping
to force showers and thunderstorms over southeast Kansas and
portions of the Ozarks Monday and Monday night.

Due to the lack of deep moisture and instability, severe storms
are not expected at this time.

Rain should end sometime Monday night as the front presses
southward into Oklahoma and Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)

Fantastic weather is expected Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Skies
should be mostly sunny with northeasterly breezes.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again Tuesday
night into Wednesday, as moisture advection impinges on a frontal
system laid out across Kansas. The GFS is the most bullish with
bringing this rainfall into the Ozarks. For now we will carry
anywhere from a 20 to a 40 percent chance for rain Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This may need to be increased with time, if
continued bullishness exists within the GFS.

Additional showers and storms can not be ruled out Wednesday night
into Thursday with a similar set up. The thought is that a low
level jet will help force convection in eastern Kansas and western
Missouri.

As we approach Friday and possibly next weekend, both the GFS and
ECMWF suggest that an upper level ridge will translate across the
nation`s mid section. This will bring 80 degree weather back to
the Ozarks, with little to no chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Primary forecast challenge will be shower/storm chances as we head
into the daylight hours of Monday morning. Currently, patch of mid
level clouds is beginning to thin/move northeast out of the
JLN/SGF aerodromes. Will continue to see a variety of mid/high
level clouds increasing across the region through tonight. VFR
conditions are expected with winds generally out of the southeast.
Winds will shift to the south/southwest heading into Monday
morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Ingredients
for shower/storm development will come together slowly, and as a
result have gone with a PROB30 at all sites for any initial
activity ahead of the front. Better chances for rain exist just
beyond the TAF cycle.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan




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