Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

123
FXUS63 KSGF 271734
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1234 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

A mostly clear sky and a moist ground from previous rainfall was
aiding in patchy fog early this morning. Fog will erode with
daytime heating this morning. The area remains within a weak mid
level shear axis with a low level front just to the south of the
area. A couple other features are in play for the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Temperatures will
remain seasonable.

One feature is with an area of showers and storms across
southcentral Nebraska. A remnant MCV or outflow boundary will
likely enter or be close to the area during the morning hours.
Another feature is the upper level energy across Louisiana moving
northward. Expectations are that as morning heating commences,
showers and thunderstorms will develop in a similar fashion to Tuesday.
The general focus looks to be along and south of Interstate 44 due
to the better proximity to the front and energy. However
locations further north could still experience isolated activity
especially if the Nebraska remnant MCV/outflow move in. Similar
to Tuesday, a limited flooding risk will be mentioned due to a
high moisture content and slow storm motions. Wind shear looks
weak today and just not expecting severe thunderstorms.

The activity will wane with the loss of daytime heating. However another
complex of thunderstorms looks to develop across Nebraska into
Kansas again tonight and may enter western portions of the area by
early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at  208 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The Thursday through Sunday period looks rather unsettled as the
region will remain in northwest flow with nightly MCS`s and
daytime scattered convection/remnants. While the placement of
these complexes will be a mesoscale challenge, it currently
appears that both Thursday and Friday nights there will be
complexes of showers and thunderstorms that generally affect the
southwest half of the area while complexes saturday and sunday
nights affect northeast half of the area. This is all in response
to a gradual movement of the upper level ridge eastward. While
widespread severe weather is not currently expected, there will be
an increase in wind shear therefore isolated bouts of severe
weather/damaging winds will be possible with some of the stronger
complexes of storms. Temperatures will remain seasonable through
the period.

The upper level ridge becomes entrenched over the area early next
week leading to the return to hot temperatures and dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across the region
this afternoon and into this evening. Very localized MVFR and IFR
conditions will occur while showers and thunderstorms are
in the vicinity. There is low confidence in timing for KSGF and
KJLN this evening, while the KBBG forecast has a higher
confidence. A tempo group has been added for KBBG due
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening and due to patchy
fog tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Foscato



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.