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000
FXUS63 KSGF 151809
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
109 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

LOCALIZED...VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION CONTINUES ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF SPRINGFIELD. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH ONE MEASURED REPORT (7 SOUTH OF
SPRINGFIELD) OF IN EXCESS OF 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER BARRY AND STONE COUNTIES
WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

AS EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI IS UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT A
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES OUT OF KS/OK AND INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.

WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
RISK AND WILL UPDATE THE HWO ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING AFTER MAKING THE TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEST INSTABILITY
IS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
POINTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED SHOWERY ACTIVITY TRYING TO
GET GOING OVER OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL
JET STREAK.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES
MOVE INTO AN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECTING SOME MORNING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHWARD
MOVING MCS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI. WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENDS UP TODAY AS IT WILL
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WILL A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. BEST FOCUS FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL BE WITH BETTER SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A BIT WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH AND PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN CWA TODAY.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH THE MAIN WAVE KICKING THROUGH WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM.
EACH OF THESES WAVES COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUOUS WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED IN
BETWEEN EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST OF
ROUGHLY 0.75 TO 1.3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING WITH ALL OF THE RAINFALL WE RECEIVED DURING THE SPRING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM AND VERY
HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL SUBTLE FORMS
OF LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN (PERIODIC)
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
BENEATH THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE GENERAL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...GAGAN
SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...GAGAN