Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 010014
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday)
Beautiful weather in progress over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures reached the lower 60s in some
spots, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.
For tonight, we leaned the temperature forecast with the
adjusted MET biased corrected guidance, since it`s been the best
verifying model for the past three nights. This will be an
increase in lows for most areas.
We also think fog will develop along and north of Interstate 44
toward the early morning hours of Sunday. Visibilities could
fall below one mile at times.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Sunday as a weak
frontal system stalls over southern Missouri. An increase in
cloud cover could also facilitate cooler temps in the low to mid
By Monday, southerly winds return while full sunshine is expected.
This will lead to temperatures back into the upper 50s and lower
60s. No precipitation is expected through Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Tonight through Friday)
Before we get too deep into the extended discussion, major
differences between the GFS and the ECMWF were noted in their 12Z
solutions. These differences will have big time ramifications on
wintry precipitation chances toward the end of the week.
Collaboration with the Weather Prediction Center this afternoon,
led to a forecast heavily leaned with the ECMWF. As a matter of
fact, the model diagnostics specialist is completely throwing out
the GFS solution, regarding the structure of the upper trough late
in the week.
Essentially the upper low, currently over northwest Canada, will
sag into the western United States as the week progresses. It is
expected that this feature will dig deeper, and hold back over the
Mountain West for a longer period of time, prior to ejecting it`s
main upper speed max over the Ozarks...after...the cold Arctic air
surges through southern Missouri.
This solution will greatly increase the chances for accumulating
wintry precipitation over the entire extreme southeast Kansas and
Missouri Ozarks Region Thursday night into Friday.
At this point, we are still 6 and 7 days out, so we will not get
cute with pinpointing precipitation types and amounts. However, we
have decided to mention a risk for accumulating wintry
precipitation into the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
If you follow the GFS, no wintry precipitation occurs, due to the
model progressing the Canadian low, and shearing it out too fast
through the work week. Again, this is not the recommended solution
to lean next week`s forecast on.
Stay tuned for further updates regarding the possibility of wintry
weather late in the upcoming work week.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A weak/diffuse sfc trough that
extends from IA into south central KS will move southeast into the
area by 12z-15z. Increased low level/sfc moisture ahead of the
boundary is already in place, and with light winds near the
boundary expect radiation fog to develop between 06z-12z. The SREF
output has the best chances for IFR fog along the I-44 corridor
in sw MO affecting the KJLN and KSGF. Will maintain 1/2sm
visibility with fog in both those tafs after 09z. KBBG may see
more lower clouds versus fog, but also have a period of ifr cat
visibility there as well. Will watch trends as the night
progresses. If fog develops, weak boundary layer winds/low
December sun angles may allow the fog and low stratus to hang on
through the morning hours (18z).