Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 031720

1220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAF: VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Friday morning. South to southeasterly
winds will occur with winds of 6 to 10kt occurring during the day
light hours.




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