Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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223
FXUS63 KSGF 270443
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1143 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Area of showers and storms has developed from Topeka to Kansas
City. IR shows this well with cooling cloud tops. An MCV is also
evident just east of KC and is moving east southeast. A left over
boundary of sorts exists just north of US Highway 54.

Expectations are for this area of showers and storms to slowly
move east southeast tonight and backbuild some given a developing
40kt llj nosing into Eastern Kansas Overnight. Locations along and
north of US Highway 54 have the highest pops tonight given
proximity to boundaries and MCV. There will be a locally heavy
rainfall threat up there given a measured 2.2in PW at TOP, however
most locations can absorb alot of water right now. Also kept a
limited wind gust risk up there. If a cold pool can become
established then an isolated/rogue wind gust would be possible.

Otherwise the latest runs of the RAP/HRRR shows at the least
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the
northern half of the area by 12z. Corfidi vectors are pointed
generally toward the south Overnight. Lets hope this comes to
fruition since most places need the rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The remains of an MCS across central Missouri continues to push
cloud cover south into the area this afternoon, with widespread
cirrus proving filtered sunshine across the region. Despite the
cloud cover, temperatures have warmed into the mid 90s, with
dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s. A few locations have
flirted with Heat Advisory criteria, and it looks like most of the
area should get close enough to justify keeping the Advisory out
through its scheduled expiration time early this evening. A few
isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop across the region as
well this afternoon, but most of the region will stay dry through
sunset.

Later tonight, another complex of rain/thunderstorms will develop
across Central Missouri as the low level jet overspreads the
frontal boundary. Outflow from that should become the effective
front Thursday as it sags south. Some additional
development/redevelopment is expected across the southern CWA on
Thursday, especially if we`re able to get a bit of heating across
southern Missouri. There will be a marginal wind risk with any
activity tonight and tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The cold front should clear the area later Thursday into Thursday
night, with just a few remaining showers/storms across southern
Missouri Friday morning. Cooler and less humid air will begin to
stream into the region during the day Friday, and by Friday night
and Saturday, it should be noticeably less humid as dewpoints
fall into the low 60s. Saturday and Sunday look very nice, with
high pressure overhead and highs in the mid 80s.

The early part of next workweek looks to feature slowly warming
temperatures, though readings should stay around average. The bulk
of the precipitation chances should remain south and west of
the area through mid week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Pilots can expect general VFR conditions but with the potential
intervals of MVFR associated with scattered showers and storms
late tonight and Thursday morning. Showers and storms will
increase from the north overnight into early Thursday morning.
There will be a break in the activity during the day Thursday with
storm development possible by late Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster



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