Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 272354
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Generally speaking...VFR conditions are anticipated through the
period. There remains, however, the concerns with increasing wind
shear overnight as the LLJ intensifies. Additionally, guidance is
bringing in relatively higher low level RH values Wednesday
morning, especially for Springfield and Branson terminals albeit
"FEW" at the most. Finally, surface winds will be gusty Wednesday
afternoon as the LLJ is mixed down to the surface.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch/Frye






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