Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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058
FXUS63 KSGF 160641
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
141 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday)

A large cyclone swirling over the Rockies provided a moisture
advection / southwest flow regime over extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Thunderstorms were ongoing across the
Plains and were increasing in coverage due to a low level jet
feeding buoyant air into these storms.

We don`t think these storms will make it to the Ozarks today.
Although we could experience random warm sector convection in
many areas. Under mostly cloudy skies temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Perhaps the most widespread rainfall will occur tonight and into
Sunday morning. Large scale ascent will spread over the warm
sector, forcing large clusters and line segments from eastern
Kansas and Oklahoma by mid to late evening. This activity will
impact areas west of Highway 65, potentially weakening or even
dissipating east of 65.

0-3km shear vectors will increase to 35-40 knots to the northeast,
within an airmass containing modest amounts of low level cape. Any
northwest to southeast oriented line segments experience balanced
or even forward leaning updrafts enhancing the risk for damaging
wind gusts and even a few meso-vorts. Ultimately we think there is
a decent severe weather risk this evening and into tonight.

Nocturnal convection will linger across the region on Sunday
morning. The main precipitation signal we see in our analysis for
Sunday regards the late afternoon and evening period over south
central Missouri.

As the low level jet kicks in, thunderstorms will once again
develop, with the better chances for areas south of Interstate 44.
Additional thunderstorms will occur during the day Monday as a
cold front approaches from the north. As this front sweeps
through southern Missouri by Monday evening, the rainfall chances
will finally come to an end.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)

A period of dry weather is expected through Tuesday evening, prior
to more rain approaching from the west early Wednesday morning. A
warm front will surge north and become positioned along the
Arkansas and Missouri border. Pressure advection lift over this
boundary will provide good chances for showers and thunderstorms
on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The GFS suggest that the stormy weather could pick up again
heading into Memorial Day Weekend as southwest flow and Gulf
moisture transport persists. Thursday and Friday could be mostly
dry with shortwave ridging passing overhead.

Temperatures next week could be a little cool with highs in the
60s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

An area of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will spread
north into portions of southern Missouri late tonight and early
Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings will also accompany this
activity...especially around Branson. There is even some potential
for IFR ceilings across south-central Missouri. Confidence in this
scenario remains low enough to preclude IFR from the TAFs.

Additional scattered thunderstorm development is then expected
from late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon across
western Missouri. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected
with any thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds
will increase out of the south on Saturday and will become gusty.
Yet another round of thunderstorms will then be possible across
western Missouri late Saturday evening towards the end of the TAF
period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






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