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000
FXUS63 KSGF 130724
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
224 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...

WHAT A PEACEFUL NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. TEMPERATURES COOLED THROUGH THE 70S...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND WITHIN SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

AT 230AM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS PASSING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR...AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING WELL INTO ARKANSAS TODAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CREATING WEATHER CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS HUMIDITY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
COOL WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN OZARK TERRAIN.

THE NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT
WILL SHIFT BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
OCCUR...WITH LOWER 90S TO THE WEST...AND 80S EAST OF INTERSTATE 49.

THIS WARM FRONT MAY OFFER SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG DESTABILIZATION. MODELS ALL SHOW MIXED LAYER INHIBITION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF AROUND 25-50 J/KG NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
STATE LINE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE UPDRAFT
ATTEMPTS FROM REACHING THEIR LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION. THEREFORE
WE WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY.

CRAMER

.LONG TERM...

RAIN CHANCES FINALLY INCREASE BY SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS TUTT
CAN BE VIEWED ON THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OLD
MEXICO...AND IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE AROUND THE EXISTING SUMMERTIME
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND SPIN INTO THE OZARKS EITHER SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TUTT...ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GIVING SOME
ORGANIZATION TO ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

WE THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE TUTT...AND HOW MUCH
INHIBITION WILL EXIST WITHIN THE OZARKS AIRMASS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE A LOCALIZED RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SMALL SCALE
CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT MOVES SLOW ENOUGH AND
CREATES A BAND OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL DURING A NOCTURNAL BREATH IN
PROCESS. THESE SMALL SCALE POSSIBILITIES WILL BE BETTER DISCERNED
THE CLOSER WE GET TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE SIGNALS OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO EITHER CONVERGE WITH THE
TUTT...OR APPROACH SHORTLY AFTER...CAUSING ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MODELS ALL WEAKEN THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE A COOLING EFFECT. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO FACTOR INTO COOLER TEMPS FOR THESE
PERIODS.

SEASONAL WEATHER WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE PREDICTIONS CONFINE THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WITH THE OZARKS REGION POSITIONED UNDERNEATH THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY...AND WELL INTO THE STORM TRACK.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...FOSTER