Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

CLear skies and pleasant temperatures are expected this evening
and overnight as southerly winds continue to bring warmer and more
moist air into the area.

Overnight temperatures will only fall into the 60s. This will
give temperatures a head start tomorrow as they head towards the
middle 80s for afternoon highs.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Temperatures will remain above seasonable normals Friday night and
into Saturday as southerly flow continues and allows temperatures
to climb to near record highs for October 14th in the upper 80s.

The cold front that has been discussed the past several days
remains on track to move through the region Late Saturday night
and into Sunday morning. Frontal lift, a low level jet, warm
temperatures and moisture from southerly winds this week will
combine to produce the potential for strong to severe storms as
the front makes its way though the area.

The prime concern will be damaging straight line winds though
some hail may also occur. Current thoughts are that most of the
Ozarks will see rainfall from a quarter to three quarters of an
inch though some locations could see isolated higher amounts. The
majority of the rainfall is expected to be post frontal with the
convection developing on or just behind the front as it moves
through the area.

Behind the front fall weather will make a return and continue
through next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all terminal sites through the
forecast period. With the low level jet present overnight, LLWS
will be likely...especially at the KSGF and KJLN terminals. Also,
kept winds up at KSGF as they are in the right direction for
funneling up the White River valley.

On Friday...southerly winds will increase around mid morning and
continue through the afternoon with some gusts to 20 KT primarily
in the KSGF/KJLN terminal areas.




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