Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 202252

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
552 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Convection is ongoing along the MO/AR border driven or triggered
by outflow boundaries. Another area of convection now over
northern MO is also expected to move southeast over the next few
hours. Evolution of this northern area of storms is a little more
up in the air, but HRRR does develop convection along a trailing
outflow boundary into our west central and central MO counties by
early evening. Some storms may also form along and nw-se oriented
boundary west of KSGF toward 00z. A strong instability/modest
shear environment will support a continued mention of isolated-
scattered strong/severe storms in our messaging with large
hail/downburst winds the main concerns. Looks like storms will
diminish by late evening.

Heat index values are reaching up to around 105 deg F over our
western counties at this time. No changes are planned to today`s
heat advisory.

For Monday, more of the same with lots of low level moisture in
place, some scattered convection will still be possible. Eclipse
viewing will be a roll of the dice, with clouds likely to hamper
some areas. 18z forecast grids for Mon has 50-60% coverage in

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

A cold front will move through the area Tuesday with a good chance
for rain/tstms. Rain chances will initially push into our
northern counties late Mon night and spread quickly into the rest
of the area Tue morning. Overall instability looks hampered by
cloud cover at this point so the severe risk looks marginal. We
will need to monitor for heavy rain and flooding potential, but
given the progressive front, probably not looking at a widespread
flooding risk. WPC marginal day 3 (Tue) risk for excessive rain
looks appropriate.

It looks like a nice stretch of weather behind the front. We
could see at least a couple of nights with lows in the 50s with
lower dew points/humidity in a deep nw flow pattern and sfc high
pressure ridging. Some moisture return may lead to a return of a
chance of thunderstorms by Sunday as we transition to a weak zonal
upper level flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Outflow boundary from this mornings convective complex has nearly
stalled out and was located from near Schell City to Greenfield to
Kimberling City. Convection has fired up in an area of instability
on the eastern edge of the outflow boundary over Cedar county
northwest of SGF. Am going to mention VCTS on the BBG TAF for a
couple hours this evening, but will leave SGF/JLN without mention
of CB or VCTS at this time. Expecting mainly VFR conditions
through the period, but areas which get under any thunderstorms
could drop into MVFR/IFR.


MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077-088-093-

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.



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