Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201732

1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to be shunted to the east
early today as a deep upper level trough moves across the Great
Lakes region. Areas of light fog will again develop through
sunrise across both the eastern Ozarks as well as southeastern
Kansas and western Missouri as the high moves east and southerly
winds return moisture to the area.

In advance of the cold front that will begin to move into the
region during the overnight hours tonight, temperatures will climb
into the lower to middle 80s. Moisture will also pool across the
region in advance of the front with dew points in the upper 60s.

The front is expected to begin making its way through the Ozarks
around midnight and have pushed south of the region by late in the
morning. There will be some instability for the front to work
with, however, the front appears as though it will be rather
gently sloped with limited forcing noted by short term models.
This would limit the potential for any widespread strong or severe
convection, though an isolated strong storm may occur.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Some lingering showers or rumbles of thunder will be pushing south
across southern Missouri during the morning hours on Sunday with
the rain and storms coming to an end by mid to late morning.
Behind the front a cool Canadian airmass will begin to filter into
the region through the remainder of the day.

Temperatures Sunday and through the middle of next week will be on
the cool side with highs in the low to middle 70s. A warming trend
will occur for the end of the work week and into next weekend as
an upper ridge builds over the region. Temperatures will only
climb to around the 80 degree make though as the cool airmass will
linger over the area.

Models continue to show a short wave trying to move through the
upper ridge, though it never makes it into the Ozarks. As a result
the forecast for next week looks to be on the dry and cool side.
All in all a rather pleasant week ahead for the Ozarks.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A MVFR cloud deck is currently
over the area early this afternoon. This cloud deck will lift and
scattered out this afternoon, but a couple hours of MVFR ceilings are
possible early in the TAF period before this occurs especially at
the KJLN site.

A cold front will then push south into the area and be the focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning.
Southwesterly winds will occur today and will shift to northwest
behind the front tonight into Sunday.




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