Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 241846
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
146 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

In the near term severe weather chances are the obvious concern.

Sfc low over just north of KEQA in se KS as of 18z will progress
east with a trailing dry line/sfc trough moving into the eastern
cwfa by 21z. Cap in place now, but a combo of daytime warming,
mid level cooling with increased lift and a narrow corridor of
low level moisture advection is expected to weaken the cap over
the next couple of hours allowing sfc convergence near the
boundary to initiate storms. Latest high res guidance (HRRR, among
others) have been consistent with developing convection by 21z-22z
close to the se KS/sw Mo state line. While model dew points may be
a bit bullish, still looks like a good bet with a corridor/broken
line of convection moving quickly w-e through the cwfa late this
afternoon and early this evening.

ML CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg indicated by the HRRR in a
narrow corridor along the sfc trough coupled with more than
adequate deep level 0-6 km bulk shear of around 40-50 kts and 0-3
km helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 will allow rotating updrafts to
develop with stronger convection. With somewhat limited low level
moisture/higher cloud bases, the main storm hazard will be hail
given steep mid level lapse rates. Localized severe winds also a
possibility. The tornado risk would appear low (but not zero),
again given the lack of deeper low level moisture and a veered low
level sfc wind profile along the sfc trough.

The severe window should be small time-wise. Storms should quickly
move east through the cwfa this evening, weakening late with more
limited instability.

&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...DSA
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Cramer







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