Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 151732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1232 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday through Tuesday.
  Some significant fire weather conditions possible in south
  central Missouri on Monday.

- Sub freezing temperatures possible Monday morning and Tuesday
  morning.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Current conditions and synoptic overview: Water vapor imagery
continues to show a high amplitude ridge axis off the Pacific
coast with a cutoff low over southern California. Broad
southwesterly flow continued from west Texas across the mid and
lower Mississippi valley and the southeastern U.S. Northern
stream flow was over the Great Lakes region with another
northern stream jet streak diving southeast into the northern
plains from Alberta and Saskatchewan. Main convection has
shifted well to the southeast of the forecast area with a few
showers in the far southeast CWA remaining. Winds have become
northerly with low stratus spreading into the area in the cooler
air mass. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 50s most
locations except in the southeast where low 60s were still
occurring.

For the remainder of the overnight period: any remaining showers
should end over the far southeast CWA and cloud cover will
continue over the area. Temperatures should dip into the mid to
upper 40s most locations with some low 50s in the southeast.

For today and tonight: The upper low will remain cutoff over the
southwest CONUS and the northern stream upper level jet will
continue to dig southeast with the next cold front dropping
southeast into the northern plains and upper Mississippi valley.
We`ll have quite a bit of cloud cover today with some clearing
from the northwest during the afternoon and additional clearing
during the evening. Highs today should reach the upper 50s to
mid 60s with lows tonight in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Saturday: The next cold front will push a bit further south into
the northern CWA by the end of the day, but the colder air push
will linger back to the north a bit. Highs should return to the
mid to upper 60s across the area with a partly cloudy sky.
Afternoon humidity levels will dip into the 30s and 40s which
will bring some elevated fire weather conditions to the area
during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Saturday night into Sunday: The front will push through the area
on Saturday night with cold air advection continuing into
Sunday. Lows Saturday night should dip into the upper 30s to mid
40s with highs on Sunday in the mid 50s north to upper 50s
south. Some additional elevated fire weather conditions are
expected Sunday afternoon.

Sub freezing temperature potential Sunday night and Monday
night: Cold Canadian air mass will continue to shift south into
the area through Monday. Ensemble means are showing a 40-95%
chance of sub freezing temperatures across the area on Sunday
night into Monday morning with the highest chances in the
northeast and the lowest chances in the far south. Our current
forecast is ranging from around 27-28 in central MO to near
freezing in the far south. As the high pressure system shifts to
the south on Monday night, the coldest air will be to our east,
but temperatures in the eastern Ozarks will likely drop below
freezing again. Ensemble probabilities range from 20% chances of
sub freezing temperatures in the west to around 85% in the east
for Tuesday morning.

Elevated to significant fire weather potential on Monday
afternoon: Dry conditions are expected as the surface high moves
into the area on Monday. RH values are expected to dip into the
20-30 percent range with some gusty winds possible around 20-30
mph.

Return of rain chances: Global models and ensemble data suggest
the cutoff upper low will begin to open up and shift east during
the middle to later part of the upcoming week. There are still
differing solutions with placement of the best forcing and
moisture, but most solutions do bring precipitation chances back
to the area from late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Low clouds were slowly sliding south across the region with
clearing skies in the wake. This will allow ceilings to become
VFR through this afternoon and remain so through the overnight
hours. Surface winds will diminish overnight as the boundary
layer decouples which may allow for some areas of patchy fog or
ground fog to develop thanks to recent rainfall.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch


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