Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 122350
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

...Update to Aviation for 00Z TAFs...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Clouds have been slow to erode behind the Arctic cold front today
and temperatures have held fairly steady under the cloud cover
around the freezing mark or slightly below for most of the CWA and
still in the 40s across parts of south central Missouri. Radar was
showing some very light echoes across south central and southern
Missouri, but have not seen any reports of drizzle/freezing
drizzle at this time. Deep upper level trough evident on water
vapor imagery was just off the California coast.

Main forecast focus will be with the impending freezing rain and
ice accretion over the next couple of days. We have upgraded our
watch to an ice storm warning this afternoon and the far southern
Missouri counties were put in a freezing rain advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

For tonight, short term models are driving the freezing line to
near the MO/AR border overnight, with precipitation expected to
start developing by late evening and overnight across far southern
Missouri. Will likely see freezing rain develop over almost all
but the extreme far southern sections of Missouri which may remain
above freezing during the overnight hours. A freezing rain
advisory has been issued for the counties bordering  Arkansas
from Midnight until Friday noon, with an ice storm warning
beginning at midnight for the remainder of the counties in our
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

The precipitation which develops overnight tonight will gradually
shift northward on Friday morning spreading across the remainder
of the area. The freezing line will gradually creep northward to
near the US 60 corridor during the day friday and along the I44
corridor Friday night. Parts of central and west central Missouri
into southeast Kansas may remain below freezing until around
Midday Sunday. The areas which are below freezing the longest will
have the most ice accretion and we have areas mainly north and
west of a Pittsburg Kansas to Rolla line in an Ice storm warning
until noon Sunday. Areas along and north of this line can expect
from a half inch to three quarters of an inch of ice, with
possibly higher localized amounts. Further south, the freezing
line should move through quicker with a quicker onset to rain from
freezing rain. We are expecting a quarter to half inch of ice
roughly between the US 60 and I44 corridor.

By Sunday afternoon, the warmer air will continue to advance
northward with the precipitation expected to be all rain by this
time frame. There may be a lull in the action during the afternoon
Sunday after this first batch of rain/freezing rain lifts
northward and prior to the showers/thunderstorms arrival with the
main wave. Most of this precipitation should arrive Sunday night
into Monday night. Models continue to bring instability northward
into the area for continuing the mention of thunderstorms as this
main wave pushes through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

A cold air mass has spread south into the area. Temperatures at
KBBG are currently above freezing but temperatures are expected to
develop to around freezing late this evening into the overnight
hours. Temperatures will then start to warm tomorrow at KBBG, but at
KJLN and KSGF temperatures will remain below freezing through
much of the TAF cycle.

Isentropic lift will start to spread north into the area late
this evening into the overnight hours. Enough low level moisture
will be in place for drizzle to develop and occur at times
overnight into Friday morning. With Freezing temperatures at KSGF
and KJLN freezing drizzle will occur. KBBG will be really close to
the freezing line, and temperatures will start to slowly warm from
the south across far southern Missouri by Friday afternoon at just
the KBBG site.

The column will saturate from the bottom up and by Friday morning
a band of rain is expected to develop and spread north through the
area. Again KBBG should be right around the freezing mark with
freezing rain expected at KJLN and KSGF where freezing
temperatures will remain in place. There will be some weak
instability which may lead to some pockets of sleet at times. This
band of freezing rain will spread to the north by Friday
afternoon. Low level lift will remain in place into the afternoon
with freezing drizzle or drizzle occurring through the afternoon
hours.

Ceilings will also lower into the MVFR range this evening with
then into IFR with LIFR possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freezing Rain Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday
     for MOZ097-101>106.

     Ice Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     MOZ082-083-088-090>096-098.

     Ice Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-089.

KS...Ice Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     KSZ101.

     Ice Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
     KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise



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