Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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823
FXUS63 KSGF 241701
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

No major changes to the forecast this morning, with one more day
of excessive heat expected before a return to near average
temperatures for the workweek.

Temperatures today look to again reach the mid to upper 90s across
the region, with heat indices between 103 and 110. As expected,
the upper ridge is beginning to flatten a bit in response to a
shortwave passing through the Dakotas. This should result in a
somewhat higher concentration of afternoon thunderstorms south of
I-44 today, though as has been the case for several days now, most
spots will remain dry. This increase in precipitation potential
should also keep temperatures at least a few degrees cooler across
far southern Missouri.

By tonight, a front is expected to drop south into northern Kansas
and northern Missouri. As the LLJ begins to increase and
overspread this boundary this evening, we should see a complex of
thunderstorms develop along and north of I-70 in Kansas. This MCS
should drop south-southeast with time, eventually moving into the
forecast area from the north around daybreak Monday. There will be
a low-end chance for a few stronger storms with this complex
(strong wind gusts being the main concern), however, weak deep and
low level shear will really temper overall strength.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Much of the workweek will be unsettled, with multiple chances for
thunderstorms.  Thunderstorm chances through the week look like
they will revolve around 1. overnight convection moving south into
the area during the morning hours and/or 2. afternoon pulse
thunderstorm activity, focused along remnant outflow boundaries.
This scenario suggests daily chances for thunderstorms, however it
doesn`t look like a washout. While much of the area will have a
chance of seeing scattered thunderstorms on any given day, it`s
quite likely that some areas may remain dry for a few days.

Increased rainfall chances and cloud cover will help keep
temperatures in check as well, with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s through the week, which is about average for this time of
year. Dewpoints look to remain in the 70s, which will result in
heat indices between 95 and 103 each afternoon. No additional
heat headlines are planned beyond today, though a Heat Advisory
isn`t entirely out of the question later this week for at least
parts of the area. This will be dependent on mesoscale details,
which will need to be taken a day at a time.

This overall weather pattern looks to continue into next weekend,
with no major signals for a significant pattern change. There are
some indications that the upper ridge may try to move back east by
the early to middle portion of next week, and if this were to take
place, it would likely signal a return to above average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Some cumulus starting to show up in the far eastern counties in
the CWA as of 17z. This should start to expand over the next
couple of hours with some showers/thunderstorms starting to
develop thereafter. Most of the activity should be confined to
locations southeast of the forecast terminals, but have maintained
some vcts wording in the BBG/SGF tafs. Slightly higher chances of
convection will be possible later tonight from convection expected
to develop around the frontal boundary and then move into the
area.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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