Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 201919
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
219 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 218 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Upper level ridge was centered along the Gulf coast, extending to
the northwest into the mid Mississippi valley region. A weak
disturbance was located in the northeast Texas/southwest Oklahoma
vicinity and has been producing steady widely scattered showers
throughout the day across eastern Oklahoma. A few of these have
tried to move into southwest Missouri, but the ridge was winning
that battle and dissipating anything that has tried to move in so
far. Will be keeping isolated showers/thunder in through the
afternoon for the southwest corner of the CWA, but nearly everyone
will not see any rainfall.

The heat will be the main weather topic for the next several days
as the upper level ridge continues to build into the lower and
middle Mississippi valley region into the weekend and early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Will continue the isolated wording for a shower/thunderstorm
across the southwestern part of the CWA for the remainder of the
afternoon with nothing expected after 00z. The lift associated
with the weak energy will dissipate as it moves towards the
forecast area. The "ring of fire" will remain to the west/north
and east of the area over the next several days as the ridge
continues to build into the region. This will continue to bring
warm nights and hot days into the area. For tonight, temperatures
will likely drop into the low to mid 70s. On Thursday, will see
temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 90s, but enough
mixing should occur to allow some drier air to mix down during the
late morning and afternoon hours to keep heat index values in the
98 to 104 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Pretty much a copy/paste from Thursday to Friday as the ridge
remains in place across the area. Some energy will begin to move
into the high Plains on Saturday, but any precipitation should
stay well to the west.

Will need to monitor the accumulative daily heat index values for
the potential of an advisory by the weekend as we start to get
into several days in the 100 to 104 degree range, but at this time
am not planning any heat related headlines for the forecast area.

Will likely need to get the ridge to break down in amplitude to
get any type of widespread rain chances into the area which is not
expected to occur until at least the middle to later portions of
next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Thursday morning and beyond.

A few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will be
possible this afternoon but these will be very hit and miss in
nature and confidence in a TAF site being affect is low at this
time. Otherwise scattered diurnal cumulus clouds and gusty
southwesterly winds can be expected this afternoon. Winds will
become more southerly and relax some this evening and tonight.
The wind will then become more southwesterly and pick up again late
Thursday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise






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