Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 201713
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Another day but the same story across the region with a
continuation of the hot and humid weather. With the upper ridge
becoming positioned overhead we will see high temperatures climb
well into the middle and upper 90s. Heat index values will be
similar to what we saw Wednesday generally ranging from near 100
to around 105 degrees. The hottest temperatures will occur from
the Osage Plains of southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri
into central Missouri. No changes to the ongoing heat warnings and
advisories.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Much of the same can be expected Friday and Saturday as the upper
level ridge remains firmly anchored over the Ozarks region. We
will see the 850 MB thermal ridge shift into the area especially
Saturday. This will add another degree or two to afternoon air
temperatures. With an increasing surface pressure gradient we will
see increasing southerly to southwesterly winds. Afternoon
temperatures Friday and Saturday will rise into the middle 90s to
upper 90s with the possibility of hitting the 100 degree mark in
central Missouri. Maximum heat index values will range from 100 to
around 108 degrees.

Models remain consistent in breaking down the upper ridge Sunday
into early next week as an upper level trough swings across the
Great Lakes. A sagging frontal boundary will be a trigger for
isolated to scattered convection on Sunday. This activity could
linger into Monday and Tuesday across far southern portions of
Missouri and southeastern Kansas in closer proximity to the
stalling boundary. Temperatures will cool to near normal during
this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

VFR conditions expected across the area for this TAF period. A few
afternoon cumulus will be possible at SGF and BBG otherwise clear
skies will prevail. Gusty afternoon surface winds out of the
southwest will occur at the TAF sites before relaxing this
evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ070-071-079>083-
     089>092-094>098-101>106.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077-078-088-093.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield



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