Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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797
FXUS63 KSGF 081732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0134 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

A strong deep upper level trough is currently swirling over the
Midwest and Great Lakes Region this morning. Gusty northwesterly
winds this morning is ushering in much colder weather along with
scattered light snow showers across portions of the area.
Temperatures will slowly fall during the day today with
temperatures in the lower 30s by this afternoon. Gusty winds up
to 35 to 45 mph can be expected especially areas along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor. This is where the wind advisory is
currently in effect.

Bands of scattered light snow showers will persist off and on
today across much of the Ozarks. Overall the snow showers will be
very light but there may be brief times where it will come down at
a higher rate. Very little to no accumulation expected. There may
be a light dusting to a couple tenths of an inch possible across
portions of Central Missouri into the Eastern Ozarks. A slick spot
of two can not be ruled out on roads or bridges today but
significant travel impacts are not expected.

Wind chills today will be in the teens and single digits. Snow
showers will end from west to east this evening and some clearing
of the clouds will occur from west to east by tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 0134 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

The main energy associated with the upper level trough begins to
move eastward out of our region on Tuesday. We will remain in a
deep northerly flow in the mid to upper levels. Temperatures will
remain below average and cold through mid week but the weather
will be dry. A dry airmass with breezy winds will be a fire
weather concern. See the fire weather section below for elevated
grassland fire conditions through midweek.

Slight height rises Thursday and Friday will allow temperatures to
moderate by to near seasonable levels. But recent model runs have
changed a little bit over the last 24 hours for end of the week
and next week. Guidance suggest the northerly flow will sharpen up
again by next weekend with another cold front moving through late
Friday.

A Canadian airmass will settle back in keeping temperatures on
the chilly side. There is some uncertainty by the end of the 7 day
period heading into early next week on guidance. GFS keeps the
area milder and dry while the latest ECMWF run shows a clipper
like system bringing some wintry precip to the area. Will lean
more with the ECMWF guidance with a chance of precip late Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

Very strong north to northwest winds will continue today. Speeds
should decrease a bit tonight, but will remain fairly strong.

Widespread stratus will also occur through this evening, before
gradually clearing from the west. Cloud bases should generally
stay VFR, though an occasional drop to MVFR isn`t entirely out of
the question. Occasional snow showers/flurries will also be
possible, though any notable restrictions to visibility would be
very brief.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
FIRE WEATHER...DSA



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