Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 231926
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Quick moving upper level shortwave was pushing through the area
today and has brought light rain showers to mostly the western
half of the CWA, although a few remnant showers were occuring in
the east this afternoon. The cloud cover/scattered showers were
aiding in keeping temperatures from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Main forecast focus will be with the well above normal
temperatures expected over the next few days and the
shower/thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: An area of light showers continue
to spread east across the area. These showers are weakening and
coverage is really decreasing early this afternoon. This trend
will continue and all the rain will be weaken and dissipate at the
TAF sites by the mid afternoon hours. There could be some brief
periods of sprinkles here over the the next hour or so, but with
the coverage really decreasing the chances of a TAF site getting
affect is decreasing.

MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed on the back side of this rain
and will be possible through of the afternoon at the KSGF and KJLN
TAFS. There are more questions if ceilings will drop as much at
the KBBG site.

The clouds will lift and begin to break up this evening into the
overnight hours. As skies clear overnight some light fog will be
possible early Friday morning.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg






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