Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 010520
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...06Z Aviation Section Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday night)

Another fabulous day was observed over the Ozarks as temperatures
warmed into the 80s. Sunny skies and southerly breezes helped
boost these temperatures into the above average category from a
seasonal standpoint.

For tonight, there is a possibility of some showers or storms over
eastern Kansas and far western Missouri. We think most locations
will remain dry, and severe weather is certainly not expected
tonight.

As we advance into Wednesday, some of the hiRes models are
focusing convection north of Highway 54 through the day. The
global models signal precipitation further south into southern
Missouri. We have decided to lean our forecasts closer to the high
resolution models, thinking most of southern Missouri will remain
rain free heading into Thursday morning.

The reasoning for that regards the placement of the height falls
and front, being further to the north and west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

We have inserted the mention for tornadoes within our severe
weather outlook for Thursday afternoon and evening.

Deep moisture will continue to transport into the Ozarks,
underneath an approaching storm system from the west. This feature
will force a round of robust thunderstorms on Thursday.

Even with the uncertainty involved with potential warm sector
convection contaminating instability Thursday morning, we think
shear strength and structure appears favorable for well organized
storms. This shear combined with dew points in the upper 60s to
near 70, warrants a mention for tornadoes. Particularly with
expected low level CAPE with this type of airmass.

Models suggest all convection will move east of the Ozarks by
Friday morning, giving way to dry and mild weather through the
upcoming weekend.

Temperatures on Friday and Saturday may not warm out of the 60s,
with overnight lows falling into the low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Latest forecast updates suggest that thunderstorm activity may
impact the terminals earlier than initially thought, with a few
storms possibly affecting the JLN terminal by daybreak. The best
chances will be Wednesday afternoon, when scattered thunderstorms
develop across the region. Have utilized a PROB30 group for now; once
coverage and timing become more clear, TEMPO and/or prevailing
groups will be utilized. MVFR or IFR will be possible within
thunderstorms, with VFR otherwise expected outside of any
convection.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell





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