Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 241822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1222 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

A band of moderate to occasionally heavy rain was moving across
the Ozarks this morning oriented nearly right along the I-44
corridor. Though instability is currently weak over the region,
some thunder was occuring with the bands of heaviest rainfall.
Rainfall rates with have been in the half to three quarter inch
per hour rate in the moderate to heavy bands.

The rain has also been aided by an upper level jet. This will
begin to lift north of the area through this morning. As it does,
the rain should begin to taper off or even stop for a time before
a surface low lifts north and moves across the Ozarks this
afternoon. This will bring the next round of rain and storms to
the area with moderate to heavy rainfall once again expected. The
current Flood Watch handles this well and will continue it as is
through tonight.

With the low lifting through the region this afternoon,
instability and lift will increase. This will bring with it the
potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. The best
potential area will be across south central Missouri as a cold
front lifts through the region. The primary concern with any of
the strongest storms will be strong straight line winds, however
depending on the orientation of any line segments it may not be
out of the question that an isolated tornado might occur.
Confidence is rather low in this occuring though.

Once the surface low and cold front begin to move through the
area, it should progress fairly quickly. The rain should finally
move out of the region by midnight with high pressure filtering
into the area overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 209 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

High pressure will control the region`s weather Sunday and
through the start of next week. This will bring some much needed
days of sunshine to the area with temperatures climbing into the
lower 60s by Tuesday.

The models do bring another storm system through the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday with another surface low lifting across the
plains and through the Ozarks Wednesday night.

High pressure under a weak upper level ridge then moves over the
Plains and brings the next period of quiet weather to the area as
we head into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Rapidly evolving weather situation occurring at this time. Surface
low pressure situated over northeast Texas with a stationary front
across central Arkansas. A secondary front is located across
eastern Oklahoma into central Missouri. Convection moving out of
Oklahoma is affecting the TAF sites at this hour.

As the upper level system approaches the area...the surface low
will move into Arkansas and southern Missouri by this evening. Convection
will continue to move through the TAF sites through 00z. During
this time, expect IFR ceilings with predominately IFR
visibilities. From 00-07z, the front will move through the area
with winds veering around to the west with occasional gusts to
20kts. After 07z...conditions will improve to VFR where they are
expected to remain through the remainder of the forecast period.


MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ057-058-069>071-079>083-

KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ101.



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