Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192309

609 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. An upper level
disturbance will bring increasing mid and high level clouds into
Monday morning. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop
from late tonight into early Monday morning, but a lot of the
shower activity will evaporate before reaching the ground. Perhaps
the best chance for rain reaching the ground will be around
Branson early Monday morning. Light southerly winds this evening
will shift around to the west and then northwest on Monday as a
cold front moves through the area. Skies are expected to clear
Monday afternoon.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.