Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 261123
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015
...Update to Aviation for 12Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015
After a brief respite from the cold weather, Arctic air has
returned with a vengeance behind a cold front that swept across
the area. Some very light snow or flurries and perhaps a brief
period of freezing drizzle was accompanying this intrusion of
Arctic air. A light dusting of snow of less than an inch is still
possible across central Missouri mainly from the Lake of the
Ozarks region into the eastern Ozarks.
Temperatures will continue to fall into the morning before
leveling off this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will struggle
to reach 20 degrees. Lows tonight will tumble into the single
digits as the Arctic high builds southward. A steady northerly
wind tonight into early Friday will generate wind chills in the
single digits below zero and may approach 10 below.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015
Another very cold day is in store for Friday as the Arctic high
pressure system slides to the east. Highs again will struggle
again to climb above 20 degrees.
As been advertised an active weather pattern will develop this weekend
into early next week. The upper pattern will become more zonal as
an upper level trough takes shape out west. A series of disturbances
will eject eastward into the region Saturday and Sunday while a
frontal zone develops. Warm air advection pattern will evolve and
strengthen Saturday and Sunday which will bring gradual warming
initially above the boundary layer and eventually to the surface.
Expect precipitation primarily in the form of snow to develop from
west to east Saturday into Saturday evening. The snow will then
mix with or change to sleet and even some freezing rain later
Saturday night into early Sunday as the warm nose builds north. At
this time there is the potential for light accumulations of snow
and sleet along with minor ice accumulations. Current models prog
temperatures will climb above freezing across most if not all of
the area Sunday changing the precipitation over the rain and
Additional chances of precipitation will continue into early next
week as the upper level trough makes its way eastward. The extent
of warming and the resulting thermal profile remains in question.
However it appears that sufficient warming will take place to keep
most precipitation rain with an occasional wintry mix.
While the confidence level is high that we will see some wintry
weather this weekend there is considerable uncertainty on exact
precipitation types, amounts and timing of transitions. At this
time expect light accumulations of snow, sleet and possibly
freezing rain. This will likely impact travel by Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Please stay tuned to the latest forecast as we approach the
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently over the region and will remain over the TAF sites into
this afternoon. Then the ceilings will lift late this afternoon
into the evening hours.
Gusty northwesterly winds will continue this morning through the
afternoon hours and will then weaken this evening. The strongest
winds will occur early this morning but again will remain gusty
through the afternoon today.
An area of light snow is pushing south across central MO and may
clip the KSGF site through the mid morning hours. This activity will
mainly be in the form of flurries with light if any accumulations.
The better chances for any snow should remain east and north of
the KJLN and