Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171058

558 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A cold front extending from northeastern Missouri into western
Oklahoma early this morning will sag southeastward into southern
Missouri today. Meanwhile a mid level shortwave trough will track
across the Plains toward the Ozarks.

A cooler airmass will seep southward into southeastern Kansas and
central Missouri during the day as winds shift to the north behind
the front. This will make forecasting maximum temperatures in that
area a bit tricky.

Clouds will increase from the west during the day as the
shortwave approaches. Moisture availability will be limited with
this system which will limit precipitation production. Expect some
areas of light rain or sprinkles to develop from the west later
this morning into the evening. However the coverage of rain will
only decrease as the system moves across the Ozarks tonight. While
many locations may some sprinkles measurable rainfall will be hard
to come by.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Warmer temperatures will return Friday into Saturday as an upper
level ridge builds over the region and southerly winds return.
High temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 Friday and
well into the 70s on Saturday.

The next upper level trough tracking through the progressive
pattern will approach from the west on Sunday. More substantial
moisture return will occur ahead of this system with surface
dew points progged to rise into the 50s if not lower 60s on Sunday.
This will yield at least modest instability and a resulting chance
of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

The chance of showers will continue into Monday as the trough
makes it way across the area.

Even more significant warming is expected next week as a broad
upper level ridge builds across the central U.S. Tuesday and


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cold front will sag south
across southern Missouri today. Southeasterly winds will occur
ahead of the front, with winds shifting to the north behind the
front. Overall the winds will remain below 10kt both ahead and
behind the frontal passage.

Mid level clouds will increase today as an upper level
disturbance pushes through the region. A dry airmass is in place
in the low levels and will limit precipitation chances today to
just some scattered sprinkles at best.




LONG TERM...Foster
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