Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291216

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
616 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A big upper level low centered over the eastern Dakotas will
slowly shift off to the east over the next couple of days. As sfc
cold front still off to our west will finally move through the
cwfa today shifting ssw winds to the west. The lower levels have
already dried out quite a bit, so other than some extensive
mid/high level clouds early today, the frontal passage will be
fairly benign.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Moderately gusty west winds will occur during the day Wed. Cloud
cover circulating around the upper low will affect the northern
cwfa more versus the south. Highs may reach 50 along the MO/AR
border with 40s elsewhere.

A ridge of high pressure is then expected to build in for Thu with
more abundant sunshine. A subtle/weak sfc trough will move through
early Fri with another sfc high settling in behind it late Fri
into Sat.

Things get a little more interesting over the weekend into early
next week. The general model forecast guidance has been
consistent in digging a strong upper low into northern Mexico by
Sat. The ECMWF and Canadian model guidance move the upper system
into east TX by late Sunday with sfc low pressure developing along
the TX Gulf Coast. The GFS is similar, just slower. Guidance
diverges further beyond Sunday, complicated by how the upper level
split flow comes back together over the central CONUS. In general,
the ECMWF is still stronger and faster with sfc low pressure
moving out of the western Gulf versus the GFS while the Canadian
just weakens/dampens out the system leaving a weak low moving
east along the Gulf Coast. There are a lot of moving parts to this
pattern so confidence is still fairly low beyond Sat.

Where there is agreement, at least over the weekend, is that it
does look like some moisture will be thrown northeastward into our
area in a broad area of isentropic lift south of sfc high
pressure over the Midwest and Oh Vly. A quick look at the GFS
thermal profile for KSGF indicates mostly rain but it`s close to
some wet snow if the freezing level can drop a bit more than
progged. In either case, unless larger scale synoptic guidance
takes another turn/changes (i.e. closer to the ECMWF), we are not
looking at much if any impact right now. The air mass expected to
be in place is not overly cold. Right now the grids are a mixed
bag of rain and snow Sat night into early Sunday depending on sfc
and low level temperatures. Expected precip amounts (qpf) are not
all that much, in general just a few hundredths to around a tenth
of an inch over the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Generally VFR flight conditioan can be expected at area termainls
through the next 24 hours. Surface winds will shift from the
southeast to the west through Wednesday morning.




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