Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 240532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

...Update to Aviation Discussion for 06Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 0152 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

High pressure over the Southeast US has lead to warmer weather
across the area today as temperatures warmed into the lower 60s
with clear skies and light southwest winds. Temperatures
overnight will cool into the middle 30s. Tuesday will feature
nearly a carbon copy of today with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures near 60. One thing that will begin to occur Tuesday
of significance is moisture moving onshore from the Gulf of
Mexico. The Gulf has been plagued with a continental polar airmass
and will take a few days to modify.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 0152 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Confidence is high for the Wednesday through Friday period. A
strong mid level trough will move into Northern California Tuesday
night. This system along with an incoming cold front will be our
major players come Thursday and Friday. Models are in good
agreement that this system will become closed off into Nevada on
Wednesday. A weak impulse ahead of this feature will move out into
the area during the day Wednesday and some light showers are
possible during the day and evening hours. Not expecting very
heavy amounts of rain during the day Wednesday as moisture quality
will be lacking.

This will change come Thanksgiving day as a cold front approaches
from the northwest and interacts with an increasingly more moist
airmass. Upper level flow will remain out of the Southwest
therefore expect several disturbances to move out into the area
and interact with the front. The heaviest rainfall looks to occur
Thursday night. One thing of note is the forecast Precipitable
Water values of 1.50inches for Thursday night into Friday. This
is nearly 275% of normal. Expect very efficient rainfall and
little in the way of thunder as instability will be lacking.
General rainfall amounts Thursday into Friday will range from 1-3
inches with heaviest amounts in the far SW corner of Missouri.
With the ground still fairly saturated from previous rains,
flooding will be a concern and continue to be monitored.

Confidence decreases quite a bit from the Saturday timeframe
onward. While both the GFS and the ECMWF keep the main upper low
over the Mountain west, disagreement exists on a shortwave that
ejects into the area on Saturday/Sunday. GFS wants to spread a
decent amount of QPF into the area Saturday while the ECMWF keeps
most of it south of the area. Temperatures profiles are somewhat
in questions during the Saturday morning timeframe as High
pressure over the Great Lakes ushers in cooler and drier air. Have
added a rain/snow mix for Saturday and Sunday at this point but to
reaffirm that confidence is low at this juncture. A cold rain
looks likely if the GFS is correct. Main upper level low may not
move through the area until next Monday. Definently a wet and
unsettled stretch of weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail
tonight and through the day on Tuesday. High clouds will increase
across the area by Tuesday morning with mid level clouds possibly
spreading into the area Tuesday evening. Southerly winds will
occur tonight and will then increase and become gusty Tuesday
morning into Tuesday evening.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.