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000
FXUS63 KSGF 202343
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Clouds have been on the increase today with a few showers beginning
to move into portions of southeast Kansas and western Missouri. An
upper level low was currently near the Texas Panhandle this
afternoon and will slowly move eastward tonight into Monday. This
upper level low will open up and weaken as it moves eastward.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase from
west to east late tonight into Monday. Not expecting any strong
convection because shear will be lacking. Bulk shear will be only
10 to 20 knots. QPF will average about half an inch with some
locations up to an inch possible. A front will move through Monday
evening and move the rain chances out of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Slightly cooler and drier air will move in for Tuesday but
temperatures will be back to slightly above average by middle and
end of the week. The next storm system and front will move into
the area by late Wednesday night into Thursday. There may be enough
shear and instability for stronger storms but not expecting
anything severe at this time with this system on Thursday. The
ECMWF solution has a little better dynamics for stronger
convection that the GFS.

That front appears it will stall out across Arkansas and then
slowly work back to the north across the Missouri Ozarks as a warm
front on Friday night into next weekend. With the front around and
a stronger upper level storm system moving in the region next
weekend...the weather pattern looks active and unsettled. Will
mention the chance for showers and scattered storms in the
forecast next weekend. Temperatures will be near or slightly above
normal through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected to start
this taf period, but we will seeing increasing chances for
showers and isolated tstms after 06z (along with mvfr
ceilings/visibility) as an upper level disturbance and sfc
trough/front approach the region from the west. The sfc front is
expected to reach the region late in the taf period. While chances
for isolated tstms will occur with showers, better chances will
occur late in the taf period, especially if somewhat stronger
instability can develop. Have vcts at all sites for that
potential.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA