Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 141700
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1100 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

A substantial warming trend will arrive today as a southerly flow
increases. There could be a few showers early today as an upper
level disturbance passes by. Otherwise considerable cloud cover
will persist and impact just how warm we get today. However still
expect lower to middle 60s at most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The warmup will continue into Thursday as a southerly flow
persists ahead of the next upstream system. Highs Thursday will
climb into the 60s with some locations reaching the 70 degree
mark.

However the preview of Spring will come to an end Thursday night
as as strong cold front plows southward. Expect showers to develop
along this front as the upstream upper level trough approaches.
Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder across southern Missouri but
instability will be weak at best. There could also be a brief
transition to snow before precipitation ends late Thursday night
and early Friday but little if any accumulation and no impacts are
expected at this time.

Forecast confidence greatly diminishes going into the weekend with
significant differences in model solutions on the handling of a
northern stream shortwave trough. At this time we have a chance of
wintry precipitation late Friday night into Saturday morning
before changing to rain by Saturday afternoon. Accumulations if
any look to be light at this time. Details on this forecast
period are highly uncertain so monitor for the latest forecast
updates.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

IFR conditions will give way to MVFR conditions for the rest of
the afternoon across the area. Southwest winds will also increase
and become gusty by afternoon and early evening. Low level wind
shear will be possible at all TAF sites Overnight. A MVFR or IFR
deck will push back north into the area overnight and early
tomorrow morning, primarily affecting the JLN terminal.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield



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