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172
FXUS63 KSGF 191059
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Mostly clear skies, light winds, wet ground and small dewpoint
depressions were leading to areas of dense fog early this morning.
While areas across Central Missouri will be most favored for
dense fog, we will be monitoring areas further south across the
eastern ozarks and south central Missouri for the rest of tonight
for any expansions to the Dense Fog Advisory. GOES-16 fog imagery
was showing fog well across area rivers and lakes. Locations west
of US Highway 65 will likely see less fog since this area has
some mid level clouds moving in along with slightly higher wind
speeds. The fog will likely vary considerably from location to
location and morning motorists will need to be cognizant of this. The
fog will burn off by mid morning.

There is a weak mid level vort over Central Kansas this morning
which will move east toward the area. Enough moisture and lift is
there for an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly across SE
kansas and western Missouri during the morning hours. HRRR and
RAP have been overdone already with this activity so confidence is
low into how much activity there will be.

Most of the area will see plenty of sunshine this afternoon with
highs 5-10 degrees above average. Low pressure will begin to take
shape across the Northern Plains today with a tightening pressure
gradient to our west. Therefore winds will begin to increase
today, especially across western missouri and se kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The period from Wednesday onward will feature a long wave trough
developing across the western US, placing our area in a southwest
mid level flow with a large ridge to our east. On Wednesday,
shortwave energy will pass through the Dakotas with a surface
front from Kansas northeast into Iowa. With a nearly parallel
flow pattern it will be hard for a surface front to push southeast
therefore highest chances of a shower and storm (20-30%) will
occur across SE Kansas into West Central Missouri. The NAM keeps
all precip from Kansas City on to the northeast while the GFS and
EURO develops precip further south and moves it into our area
wednesday evening. Due think that most locations will be dry with
the front never having a chance to make it into our area. Winds
will again be gusty out of the south Wednesday with gusts around
25mph.

The main story however will be the heat for Wed and Thurs,
potentially into Friday. 850 mb temps will be in the 20-23C range
which will combined with a strong south wind will push highs from
90 into the low 90s. It is possible that highs may need to be
raised a few degrees Friday and Saturday if the trough out west is
slower to move. Precipitation chances look very low from Thursday
onward and will likely not occur until late in the weekend when
the long wave trough finally move east toward the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Areas of dense fog affecting the Ozarks Region this morning
around SGF and BBG. IFR to LIRF visibilities and ceilings will
last through 13z or 14z before followed by improving conditions by
mid morning. VFR conditions will return for the rest of the TAF
period. Winds will be southerly with some gusts up to 20 knots by
midday and this afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Griffin