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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Quite the range of temperatures early this morning across the
forecast area with low 30s near Vichy and upper 40s over by JLN
and southeast Kansas. Also getting channeled southeast wind
direction at Springfield which has been gusty so far tonight. Air
remains fairly dry in the western CWA with RH values in JLN still
in the 40s. This may become a problem later today with a gusty
south wind and temperatures warming to around 70 for some elevated
fire conditions.

The temperatures and elevated fire conditions today will be the
main short term focus.

In the extended period, the main focus will be on the storm system
to affect the region this weekend and what if any Winter weather
will occur as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

For today, a shortwave currently in the Rockies as viewed on water
vapor imagery was beginning to now shift eastward and will track
east into the northern and central Plains during the day today. As
it does, a surface low pressure system will push from the Dakotas
into southwest Iowa with a trailing frontal system by early
evening into southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. Out ahead of
the system, gusty south winds are expected today with a tightening
pressure gradient setting up and should also see some higher
gustiness set up with some late morning and afternoon mixing.
Drier air already in place in the western CWA and we are
forecasting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s there this
afternoon. This will cause afternoon humidity levels to dip into
the upper 20s to low 30s, combining with a gusty wind of 30 to 35
mph at times to bring elevated fire weather conditions over
about the western half of the CWA this afternoon. (See fire
weather discussion for more details).

Will see that cold front and shortwave energy track east across
the aera tonight. Best lift and moisture will be much further to
the north and east of the area and will keep a dry forecast going
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Temperatures behind the front will certainly be cooler with highs
on Thursday expected in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the mid
to upper 20s on Thursday night. A storm system will push into the
southwest coast and Baja regions on Thursday night. Energy from
this system will break off from the main developing low (which is
expected to close off and remain well to the southwest) and merge
with a southeastward moving shortwave from the northern stream in
Canada on Saturday/Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to
occur with this system over the area from Saturday through Sunday.
The main question will be whether it will be snow and/or rain.
Believe that it will be mostly rain on Saturday given the warmer
surface temperatures expected. On Saturday night, temperature
profiles over northern CWA would support more snow with rain or
snow in the south and rain or snow into Sunday as colder air depth
continues to increase. Any remaining precipitation by Sunday night
would be in the snow form. Again, we will be in the transition
zone of rain/snow and for much of the forecast period with
precipitation will be going with rain/snow at this time.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the system for Sunday
night into Monday with lows in the teens and highs Monday only in
the 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. However, pilots will
need to anticipate low level wind shear.

35 to 40 knots at around 2,000 feet above the surface is expected,
and will create low level wind shear.

Otherwise surface winds from the south will be gusty today. No low
ceilings or obstructions to visibility are forecasted at this
time. The warm and windy weather will occur in response to a ridge
of high pressure moving over the nation`s midsection today.

Safe Travels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected later today with
temperatures forecast to reach the low 70s over the western
forecast area. Forecast afternoon RH values will be in the upper
20s to low 30s out west with relatively dry or dormant grass
vegetation. Will likely issue an SPS highlighting fire concerns
later today. Upcoming shift will need to monitor for potential of
upgrade to Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg