


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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890 FXUS63 KSGF 082337 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 637 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Rain will be scattered with some seeing no rain at all. There is the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph in addition to localized heavy rainfall. - Additional rain chances (30-60%) persist through late week into next weekend. Highest chances occur in the afternoon and evenings. - Temperatures remain near normal for early July. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few locations may see heat index values around 100 degrees Thursday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The lingering showers and storms from a MCS that decayed as it moved over the region last night, remained across far southern Missouri and northern Arkansas this afternoon. In addition, a MCV was noted on radar in far north central Arkansas into the Table Rock Lake region. This has allow for continued convection into this afternoon with (PWATs between 1.5 to 2.0 inches) producing some localized flooding in the region of western Douglas County and the North Fork river basin and a Flash Flood Warning. Additional localized flooding will be possible. Additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon with CAMS indicated good (30-60%) scattered chances initiating as early as 3-4pm and linger into the evening. This will be possible thanks to the remaining MCV combined with left over outflow boundaries from the morning MCS, and mid-upper level short wave moving through the area and an unstable atmosphere (CAPE 1700-2500 J/kg) over the region thanks to the Td`s in the lower to middle 70s across the region. Shear remains limited with bulk shear around 20kts, which should produce pulse to multicell storm clusters. Overall, there is a Marginal (1 of 5) chance for severe storms across the Ozarks this afternoon into this evening with the primary concern being 50-60mph downburst winds. An isolated large hail report up to quarters may occur with the strongest cells. With all that said, there may be locations that see no rainfall at all through this evening thanks to the expected scattered nature of the storms. The shortwave will push most of the way through the region by Wednesday morning. Overnight lows will again be in the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight before climbing back into the middle to upper 80s again Wednesday afternoon. The overall pattern will support daily rain chances though the ingredients Wednesday are only such as to allow for a 15-40% chances of afternoon storms. Much of the northwest portion of the area will remain dry, with the best light rain chances southeast of I-44 in the afternoon/evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The upper level short wave will have progressed over the Great Lakes region through the tail end of it may linger over portions of the Missouri Bootheel region through Thursday. Thursday will offer the lowest rain chances (<20%), with higher chances (20-55%) Friday afternoon into the weekend. Overall, the pattern will support daily rain chances, though all day washouts aren`t expected, however where rain does occur, localized heavy rainfall will be possible. Near-normal temperatures are expected, with daily highs in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s, and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. A more significant upper level trough is expected to move through the plains into the Ozarks late friday night into Saturday. This would likely produce the best potential for a more widespread rainfall. Heading through the weekend, the forecast continued scattered showers and storms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Ceilings will primarily stay at VFR for the rest of the evening with the occasional pop up thunderstorm occurring until the sun sets. Most of these storms will remain sub-severe, though could have small penny or pea size hail. Patchy fog is looking more likely tonight due to recent rainfall. Expect ceilings to lower into the MVFR/IFR levels. Northerly winds return tomorrow with fog dissipating near sunrise. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Soria