Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 021743

1143 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentropic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentropic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current




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