Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

The first in the string of several hot and humid days is underway
this afternoon, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, and
dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70. Lows tonight will only
fall into the upper 60s for most, with many areas of southeastern
Kansas and far western Missouri struggling to fall below 70. This
is some 10-12 degrees above seasonal averages.

Tomorrow looks quite similar to today, as upper ridging remains in
control. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s, with plenty
of humidity. Some areas west of I-49 may not be far from Heat
Advisory criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate through the end of
the workweek. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s to near 90.
Humidity levels may settle down a little by Thursday, as somewhat
drier air aloft is able to mix down to the surface. Regardless,
this will be a decidedly summer-like week across the region.

As we begin to head into next weekend, model guidance continues to
struggle mightily with the upper level pattern, resulting in a
very low confidence forecast. At play is the relative strength of
a deep shortwave crossing the northern US Rockies, and the
strength of the upper ridging over the southeastern CONUS. Given
an almost complete lack of run to run continuity, it is very
difficult to hang one`s hat on a particular scenario. It does
appear that a decent cold front will move across the Central
Plains sometime during the weekend, and should it make it this far
south, that would be our next organized chance for rain. Until a
front is able to make it through, expect above average
temperatures and generally dry conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

High pressure...both at the surface and aloft...will dominate the
weather across the region during the forecast period. Could see
patchy fog in low lying areas overnight...which will cause MVFR
visibilities at KBBG from about 10-14z. Otherwise...expect VFR
conditions through the forecast period with light winds and just
a few mid to high level clouds.


Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Below are record highs and record warm low temperatures, and
corresponding years, for the next few days.


9/20--97/1954, 71/1931
9/21--93/1955, 73/1931
9/22--93/1937, 69/1937
9/23--92/1960, 72/1937


9/20--99/1954, 75/1980
9/21--95/1956, 76/1980
9/22--95/1956, 73/1988
9/23--92/1910, 73/1986


9/20--97/1954, 71/2005
9/21--97/1955, 69/1964
9/22--95/1955, 71/2005
9/23--92/1948, 69/1984


9/20--95/1954, 71/1965
9/21--94/1955, 72/1980
9/22--95/1956, 71/2005
9/23--92/1897, 70/2010


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Boxell
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