Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 290004

704 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

...Monitoring Heavy Rainfall Potential This Evening...

Issued at 650 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

A shortwave was tracking across the Missouri Ozarks late this
afternoon with an apparent residual Mesoscale Convective Vortex
(MCV) moving north northeast across south central Missouri.
Convection was focused in advance of these features and training
north across areas between the Highway 65 and 63 corridors
particularly from the Marshfield and Marshfield areas north to the
Camdenton and Eldon areas. Short term models depict convection
remaining focused just to the east of the shortwave and north of
the MCV as they lift north into central Missouri. Areas from
between the Highway 65 and 63 corridors and north of Highway 60
will be monitored for training convection and resultant heavy
rainfall and localized flooding. Public reports indicate that
rainfall is very efficient with hourly rates near 2 inches in some

The remainder of the southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas
will see a break in the showers this evening. However additional
convection may develop overnight and into Friday morning as the
low level jet strengthens and weak perturbations track northeast
through the mid level flow. The Flash Flood Watch for southeastern
Kansas and far southwestern Missouri remains effect for the
possibility of additional rainfall toward daybreak.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Showers/storms are occurring ahead of a shortwave/mesovort now
moving into the western cwfa and nw AR. Most isolated-scattered
deeper convection is confined to outflow dominate storms in our
cwfa and over north central AR. Still some some ocnl small hail
risk with stronger updrafts along with brief downpours. Fairly
ordinary looking convection over NW AR underneath the the upper
vort has produced some wind damage so will continue to monitor

Flood advisory/flash flood warning for a couple of se KS counties
is ongoing, and may be okay to let go at 5 pm. Flash flood watch
for out western counties is valid through tonight, but the most
the near term concerns are waning for now.

Once current convection decreases by early this evening in the
wake of the shortwave, there will likely be a fairly quiet wx
period for much of the nighttime period. Another shortwave is
progged to move into eastern OK/southeast Kansas toward 12z/7am
along with a moderately increasing sw low level jet. Rain chances
are expected to increase again west to east, but overall
instability looks limited Fri but a limited severe risk will occur
where/when/if pockets of instability can develop.

Progged rainfall amounts are a bit of the roll of the dice right
now. With weak synoptic scale features in terms of both the
approaching shortwave and sfc front, the chances for excessive
rainfall will largely be driven by mesoscale features and
convective efficiency. Reluctant to add to the current flash flood
watch either geographically or temporally. QPF wise the best
average rainfall amounts in the grids is around an inch from
tonight through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

The best overall chances for rain will be early in this period
from Friday night through midday Saturday as the front and shortwave
move through. A part of the shortwave cuts off over the lower MS
Vly on Monday while an upper level ridge builds into the Plains.
Rain chances will linger Sunday, mainly over south central MO, but
overall expect generally dry weather early next week.

Another approaching longwave trough is progged to move east into
the western CONUS by Thu with west-southwest upper flow and lead
impulses again bringing rain chances by Thu/Day 7.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Pilots can expect a continuation of unsettled weather conditions
to impact area terminals. There will be VFR conditions mixed with
intervals of MVFR conditions through the period. The primary time
frame for lower MVFR ceilings will be late tonight into Friday
morning. After a bit of break in the coverage of showers tonight
the showers and storms will increase again Friday.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.



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