Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 011730
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Warm and Humid this Afternoon with Isolated Storms...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Another warm and rather humid afternoon is in store. Water vapor
imagery depicts a weak mid level vorticity center and shear axis
stretching across south central Missouri. This along with ample
instability will support the development of isolated convection
across far southern and south central Missouri or generally
southeast of a line from Cassville to Salem.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions to prevail today through tonight
at area terminals. A steady southerly wind will continue with some
scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. A few showers or thunderstorms
may develop during the afternoon but this activity will be very
sparse. Some light fog or haze may impact the area late tonight
but MVFR conditions are expected to be very localized.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster



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