Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KSGF 180753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
153 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

...Unseasonably Warm Weather through the Middle of Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 135 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The unseasonably warm weather will continue today despite an
increase in cloud cover. The clouds will be produced by a an upper
level low pressure system that will track across the Ozarks region
today. A deeper moisture plume on the eastern periphery of this
system will produce a few showers across the eastern Ozarks this

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Even warmer temperatures are expected Sunday as an upper level
ridge transitions over the region and southerly winds persist.
Expect most locations to climb well into the 70s and near record

An upper level trough and associated Pacific front will approach
from the west Sunday night across the area on Monday. Showers will
gradually increase from the west Sunday and overspread the Ozarks
region Monday. Models continue to depict modest instability which
support isolated thunderstorms. While most areas will see rain, rainfall
amounts will not be particularly heavy with totals of one quarter to three
quarters of an inch expected. The clouds and showers will hold temperatures
down a bit on Monday.

This system will move off to the east on Tuesday as the upper
pattern becomes more zonal. Temperatures will remain well above
normal through the middle of next week.

A more potent upper level trough will track into the central U.S.
late next week. This system will bring increasing winds and a
chance for showers or thunderstorms followed by colder


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Took a quick look at the VWP and decided that there was enough of
a LLWS threat to do a quick COR on the TAFs. Think that the risk
will be short-lived and should pass the terminal sites by 10z.

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through this forecast
period. Upper level low over southeast Oklahoma will make its way
across Arkansas through this forecast period. As it does...expect
mid level ceilings to move in overnight across all three
terminals. It is possible to see some isolated MVFR ceilings
during the late morning into early afternoon on Saturday.

Clouds will begin to scatter out by late afternoon as the upper
low moves into the Ohio Valley


Issued at 130 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Record Highs/YearFeb 18thFeb 19th
Springfield 74/194871/2004
West Plains 77/198673/1981




LONG TERM...Foster
CLIMATE...Foster is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.