Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 211736
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Upper level high pressure will bring yet another hot and humid day
to the region. The slow, but steady climb in high temperatures
will continue. Basically, afternoon highs will be about a degree
or so warmer than those of Wednesday. This will put heat indices
into the 100-110 range with the highest readings across west-
central Missouri.

We did make some changes to the heat headlines. First off, we
added the remainder of the I-49 corridor (with the exception of
McDonald County) to the Excessive Heat Warning. We have become
highly confident that those areas will see at least four
consecutive days of 105+ heat indices. The second change was to
extend the headlines through Sunday. More on that reasoning in the
Long Term discussion below.

We do think there is again an opportunity for isolated pulse
thunderstorms today...with the best chances over the eastern
Missouri Ozarks. Any storms that develop should quickly diminish
by this evening. We are then once again looking at overnight lows
in the lower to middle 70s...with some areas near I-49 possibly
remaining in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

The upper level ridge will remain in control of the weather into
the upcoming weekend. We are expecting a cold front to drop into
northern Missouri starting on Sunday as upper level energy
traverses eastward across the northern Great Lakes. However, we do
not think this front will get far enough south to knock
temperatures down for Sunday. This was the reason for extending
the heat headlines into early Sunday evening.

We will continue to see some potential for isolated thunderstorm
on an afternoon basis into this weekend...again primarily across
the eastern Ozarks. The better chances for storms will then arrive
early next work week as that front settles into the area. How much
relief we see from the heat will depend on where that front ends
up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected to
continue. Some isolated thunderstorm activity will be possible
south and east of the taf sites over the next few hours but
expected coverage does not warrant a mention in the tafs.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ082-090>092-094>097-
     101>105.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-083-088-089-093-098-106.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA



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