Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 141732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1132 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

No major changes to the forecast this morning. As of 2 AM, the
freezing line stretched from just north of Neosho to Fair Grove to
just north of Salem. A slight strengthening of an inverted trough
over Arkansas and southern Missouri has led to very light north
winds for Springfield and points west; this may lead to very
slight southward movement of the freezing line through sunrise,
but major adjustments are not expected.

North of the freezing line, an area of showers will continue to
move east toward the STL area early this morning, with a more
steady rain across southern Missouri (where temps are above
freezing). Areas of fog and drizzle will continue this morning as
well.

Precipitation will be relatively light during the day today,
especially north of I-44. This will lead to limited additional ice
accretion through the day today. In addition, temperatures may
bump just above freezing for a time this afternoon. However,
readings are expected to fall back to 31-32 degrees this evening
north of I-44 as an additional area of precipitation moves
northeast into the region. This is expected to result in a quarter
to third of an inch of (additional) ice accretion to areas from
Pittsburg Kansas to Rolla through Sunday morning.

With additional ice expected, the Ice Storm Warning will be
allowed to continue unchanged for now. The southern-most tier or
so of counties in the warning will only see up to a tenth of an
inch of additional freezing rain, and even then, mostly across the
northern portion of these counties. Impacts across this area
(including Joplin/Springfield/Mountain Grove) should be minor. This
portion of the Warning will expire at 6 PM tonight, while the
northern portion will go through mid day Sunday.

Along with the ice potential, fog will continue across southern
Missouri into the morning today, and a Dense Fog Advisory
continues for areas south of Highway 60 through 8 AM.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

The nearly stationary closed low currently located off the coast
of Southern California will finally lift northeast toward the area
Sunday into Monday, bringing warmer temperatures, rain and a few
thunderstorms to the region. Temperatures on Sunday will warm
above freezing by afternoon, with parts of far southwestern
Missouri reaching the low 50s. Highs on Monday are then expected
to reach the upper 50s and low 60s.

Rain chances will end Monday night as a front moves through the
area. This front will knock temps back to around average for
Tuesday (40s), before highs recover into the 50s and 60s for
Wednesday and Thursday.

Southwest flow will develop over a good portion of the nation`s
midsection to end the workweek, bringing with it additional
chances for showers and above average temperatures Friday into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

IFR to LIFR flight conditions will continue for much of the TAF
period as low levels remain saturated. Expect temperatures to
remain above freezing so any rain that falls will not freeze. The
only exception would be over the next several hours at KJLN where
some pockets of freezing rain may occur.

Otherwise, showers across far southern Missouri will wane somewhat late
this afternoon. Carried a tempo group at KSGF and KBBG through the
afternoon hours. There will likely be a break this evening before
the next area of rain moves in from Oklahoma and Kansas later this
evening. Again, expecting temperatures to remain above freezing.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ082-083-088-
     090>094-098.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-089.

KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ101.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding



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