Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 282012

212 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A beautiful day is being observed across the region. While south
winds are rather gusty, sunshine has been abundant with
unseasonably warm temperatures. There is a rather stark
temperature gradient across the area, with readings ranging from
the 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the mid 70s for areas near the
MO/KS state line.

We are continuing to monitoring borderline red flag conditions
given strong winds and low relative humidity values. At this time,
JLN has relative humidity right at 25%, however most other
surrounding sites are a bit higher. Given we are at peak heating
and mixing, we should not see relative humidity values go much
lower than current observations. As a result, will keep on with
the SPS for elevated fire danger as the potential for rapid spread
grass fires remains high.

Cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into early
Thursday morning. Cold advection takes hold during the day, which
will be a stark contrast to today`s wonderful temperatures. Some
recovery is expected, but highs in the 40s will be common area

Heading into Thursday night through Friday night, seasonable and
dry conditions are expected with a gradual increase in clouds
expected late Friday/Friday night in advance of our next storm

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

The region will be in a northwest flow pattern aloft to begin to
the long term, as a ridge will be over the west coast. An upper
level low will be in place across the southwest U.S. The northwest
flow will keep the temperatures seasonable with highs in the 40s
on Saturday. A piece of energy from the upper level low will move
towards the region by Saturday afternoon as another upper level
trough pushes south towards the region in the northwest flow
aloft. This will start to spread moisture back into the area.
Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for snow, however the
surface and low levels will initially be warm enough for all rain
Saturday afternoon. As colder air spreads into the area, rain
will being to mix with and change over to snow Saturday night
into Sunday. The precipitation will taper off by Sunday night as
the upper level trough moves through the region.

A much colder air mass will spread into the region to start the
work week as lows drop into the teens both Sunday and Monday
nights. Highs on Monday will only warm into the 20s. More
seasonable temperatures will then return Tuesday and Wednesday as
highs return to the 40s. Another storm system may then start to
approach the region during the middle to end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Primary
forecast challenge will continue to be gusty southerly winds and
low level wind shear. Gusts will be most common through early
evening with low level wind shear most common during the mid/late
evening hours. A cold front will move through the region overnight
and wind direction will shift to the northwest. High clouds will
move in from the west as the afternoon progresses with mid level
clouds possible during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.




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