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000
FXUS63 KSGF 031126
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
526 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

...Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 521 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Have extended the Winter Storm Warning through 15Z for the far
southeastern Ozarks/south central Missouri this morning, given a
band of moderate to heavy snow that is still on tap to move
through that area this morning. Otherwise, have trimmed the WSW
from the northwest, and will continue to do so this morning as
radar trends allow.

While the snow is ending, rather impressive cold continues. A Wind
Chill Advisory continues for the entire region through noon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 302 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

A band of moderate to heavy snow is pivoting east-northeast
across southern Missouri early this morning. Snowfall rates within
this band are likely at least an inch per hour, with visibilities
of less than a mile reported. Expect to see this band of snow
continue its eastward progression this morning, with areas just
along and south of U.S. 60 seeing the heaviest snowfall through
daybreak. Several additional inches of snow is certainly possible
for those areas that find themselves under the heaviest bands.
Still think that snow will exit the CWA by sunrise, though a short
extension of the Winter Storm Warning for a few counties in south
central Missouri isn`t totally out of the question. This need will
be evaluated over the next few hours.

For areas north of this band, snow has all but come to an end this
morning. Some very light snow, as well as some areas of blowing
snow, are likely to continue for a few more hours, but no
additional significant accumulations are expected for this region.
The Winter Storm Warning will gradually be trimmed based on radar
trends.

Along with the snow, impressively cold air continues to advect into
the CWA this morning, with most locations area-wide within a few
degrees of zero, and wind chills between -10 and -20.  The Wind
Chill Advisory will continue through noon today.

With such a cold airmass in place, temperatures today will likely
struggle to make it out of the teens in many locations, especially
for those spots that saw the most snow overnight.  In fact, if
Springfield makes it to the forecast high of 18 degrees, this will
be the coldest March high temperature in exactly 12 years
(3/3/2002).  If only 17 is achieved, then today would be the coldest
March high temperature since 3/4/1960, when a high of 13 was
observed.  That is also the coldest March high temperature on record
for Springfield. For Joplin, a 20 degree March high was last
observed on 3/3/2002, with 18 occurring on 3/1/1980.  The coldest
March high temperature on record for Joplin is also 13, recorded
3/4/1960.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Cold and quiet conditions are expected Tonight through Tuesday
night. Temperatures will be a bit tricky given the sleet/snow
pack. High clouds and a shift to southerly winds tonight put into
question our ability to achieve radiational cooling. That said, we
don`t look to warm much today, so falling into the single digits
will not be overly difficult. Have shaved a few degrees off the
coldest guidance, with the coldest readings across the eastern
Ozarks and southern Missouri. Southerly winds and a decent sun
angle should put a dent in melting the sleet/snow Tuesday, at how
much of an expense to temperatures is questionable. Temperatures
were trended warmer, amounting to a consensus blend of the
available guidance.

Northwest flow will send a wave our way on Wednesday. As always in
this flow, moisture availability will be a question mark. Decent
lift with this system should be able to squeeze out some shower
activity during the day Wednesday, tapering off Wednesday evening.

A warming trend is in store for the area on Thursday and Friday,
with readings get back to average for early March by Friday. As
has been advertised the past few days, a storm system will affect
the region late Friday into Saturday. 00z suite of model output
continue to have minor timing and storm structure differences. The
bottom line remains that chances for rain are in store for late
Friday into Saturday, possibly ending as snow Saturday morning.
Such details will be hashed out in the coming days.

Northwest flow looks to have a tenuous hold on the region to round
out next weekend into early next week. At or just below average
temperatures look to be a good bet at this point with little to no
chance for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Snow will have ended at the terminals by 12Z. VFR conditions and
decreasing north winds can be expected throughout the next 24
hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until 9 AM CST this morning FOR MOZ082-083-
     096>098-104>106.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     MOZ092-095-103.

KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell