Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
351 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 0243 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015

No big changes to the forecast and forecast impacts message.

A cold front extends from just east/south of the KC metro area
into southeast KS and is poised to start moving into the northwest
portion of the cwfa shortly. Mild temperatures have occurred
across the area today while showers edged east into southeast KS
and western MO.

In general, the expected progress of the front has slowed a bit
versus previous forecasts and is expected to have reached through
the northwest two thirds of the cwfa by 12z/6am Friday, then
quickly through the rest of our counties Fri morning (exiting
Oregon County by noon). Precipitable water values (PWATS) on
progged soundings are nearly off the chart for this time of year
with with values near/or just over 1.5 inches for a time late
tonight and Fri morning. Some small mucape may briefly support a
rumble of thunder or two over the western cwfa this
afternoon/tonight, otherwise just looking at periods of heavy
rain/rainshowers especially with forcing near and just on the cold
side of the front.

A sharp drop in temperatures is also expected with the frontal
passage, but subfreezing temperatures, at least initially, are
not a concern but may get close to 32 deg F over the far nw cwfa
(Bourbon County KS) by late Fri afternoon.

Impacts: Rainfall totals will mount. Early on, the higher precip
amounts will be over the northwest cwfa then spread southeast.
Wet soils will have limited capacity, so expect small basins and
low water crossings to flood a few hours after heavier rains are
observed late tonight and certainly on Friday. Larger basin
flooding, some potentially more serious than just "normal"
flooding will be possible as we go forward, especially over the
southeastern and cwfa (see below).

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 0243 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015

The focus for heavier rain will shift into northern AR and
southeast MO as a sfc wave develops on the front Fri night. While
3 and 6 hour rainfall rates will slow, the moderate rainfall will
continue to persist closer to the MO/AR line Fri night into
Saturday. Overall forecast storm total rain ranges from around 2.5
inches in the far northern cwfa to around five inches along the
MO/AR line.

We will need to watch temperatures over the far northwest cwfa
late Fri into Sat morning. Using a mix of 3 hour nam and mos
temperatures yields 31-32 deg F over the far northwest cwfa
(mainly Bourbon Co KS) and have maintained a small ice
accumulation in that area. No travel impacts are expected in our
cwfa with such a light accumulation, but trends will be watched.

A persistent upper level low over the western CONUS finally kicks
east into the Midwest by 12z/6am Tue. The low level moisture feed
kicks off to the east prior to that with heavier rain ending
Sunday. Some light precip will persist into Monday before we start
to clear out by Tue/Wed/Thu.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The main concern for this taf period
will be lowering ceilings and the onset of the steadier rains. Low
level southerly flow with some gusts to 30 knots has continued to
pull moisture northward into the area. Ceilings were finally
lowering into the MVFR category with the increased moisture, with
some IFR now showing up at KBBG. Ceilings will slowly lower the
remainder of the afternoon and finally end up in the IFR/LIFR
category this evening at all the sites. Short term models have
slowed onset of precipitation at the taf sites with the steady
rain overspreading the taf sites from west to east this evening
between 00Z and 06Z. Frontal passage looks to be around 02Z at
KJLN, 06Z at KSGF and 10Z-12Z at KBBG. There could be a period of
low level wind shear ahead of the front at KBBG and KSGF as model
soundings indicate a 45 knot low level jet, which decreases after
frontal passage.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
     morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
     morning for KSZ073-097-101.



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