Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 011758
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Shortwave continues to move through the area this morning. Two
bands of showers and embedded storms persist. The first extending
from Fort Scott, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks and the second
extending from the four states region northeastward to areas
along/southeast of the I-44 corridor. This activity will persist
through the morning hours, tapering off as the low level jet
weakens and veers. At least partial clearing is expected this
afternoon, which will result in steamy conditions, recharging
instability across the region.

Low level outflow has moved to the southeast of the area. This and
the large scale cold front to our northwest will become players in
our chances for redevelopment of storms later this afternoon and
tonight. The full extent of destabilization is somewhat in
question. A quicker recharge of instability may result in storms
firing quicker. The better coverage of showers and storms will
more than likely occur when the low level jet kicks back into gear
this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds and hail
will be the main severe risks with initial convection, though will
need to watch any backing of low level winds which will support a
limited tornado risk. Heading into the overnight hours, we should
transition to a heavy rain, localized flooding risk dependent on
where cell training sets up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning`s convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight`s round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





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