799
FXUS63 KSGF 020544
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some mild heat and rain relief today through Thursday before
  heat, humidity, and isolated rain chances (15-30%) return for
  the Independence Day Weekend and onwards.

- Greatest chance for precipitation is Sunday and Monday
  (30-45%) due to a signal for a weak front/trough passage.
  Details are still uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows dry air aloft behind a passing shortwave that
is now across the Ohio River Valley. The 12z KSGF sounding only
measured 1.15in of PW which is the lowest its been in over a
week. Surface high pressure has settled in Kansas with light
northerly winds advecting in lower dewpoints. Skies were mostly
sunny except for some cirrus and cumulus south of I-44.

This Afternoon through Tonight: Surface high pressure will
settle into Missouri tonight. Light winds, saturated soils and
high pressure moving in typically allows for decent fog
potential however given the cirrus moving in that could limit
the fog to more of a river valley/shallow nature by morning. Low
temps look to solidly drop into the lower to middle 60s with
some areas potentially dropping into the upper 50s, especially
those typical cooler valleys and wind protected areas. Again,
the high cirrus could limit the full extent of cooling.

Wednesday: High pressure will be sliding south and east of the
area and winds will be slowly turning out of the south. Given
the dry airmass in place, no precip is expected and with mostly
sunny skies, NBM high temps in the middle to upper 80s look
reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Thursday: Even though moisture will slowly be increasing, mid
level height rises and lack of a strong lifting mechanism look
to keep the area dry again for Thursday. NBM high temps in the
upper 80s to near 90 look reasonable.

Independence Day into the weekend: Mid level heights rise even
more for the 4th of July and thinking that the only shot at
precip may be along and west of I-49 where precip chances are 20
percent or less. Should see high temps around 90 degrees. Some
weak energy looks to slide through Saturday and pops are around
20-30 percent to account for this. Again, given the warm air
aloft, precip should be pretty isolated/scattered in nature.
Additional energy moves in Sunday and Monday and may allow for
slightly more coverage of precip with chances increasing over
40%. Overall, high temps look to reach the upper 80s to perhaps
lower 90s which is actually right around average for the time of
year. Heat indicies will gradually climb into the middle to
upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Medium confidence in VFR conditions prevailing for the entire
TAF period. Given high pressure, weak winds, and cooling
temperatures, crossover temp guidance may suggest a low-end
chance for mist/fog to develop at the TAF sites (<30% chance).
For now, expecting the densest mist/fog to stay confined to
river valleys.

Otherwise, winds will be light and variable, settling out of the
southwest between 16-01Z in which a SCT 4-6 kft cu field will
also develop.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Price