Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 211917
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Overnight heavy rainfall set the stage for flooding and flash
flooding which has occurred with the steady moderate to heavy
rainfall with round 2 which started moving into the area by mid
morning. Many rivers and streams are in flood or in forecast to
flood. Round 2 of rainfall with embedded thunderstorms was
starting to dissipate quite a bit as seen on radar and warming
cloud tops on IR satellite. Back edge of rain was rapidly
spreading eastward into western MO and will likely have to adjust
pops downward for a bit this afternoon and evening if this trend
continues.

Rainfall chances are not over as the main system is still off to
the west. Forecast focus in the short term will be with timing of
this next wave of rainfall and how much additional rainfall will
occur. Any additional rainfall will exacerbate the flooding issue
already occuring.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

For the rest of the afternoon...should continue to see the current
round of rain and thunderstorms shift into the eastern Ozarks with
clearing of rainfall from west to east. The main upper wave was
still to the west across western Kansas with surface low pressure
from eastern OK into northeast TX. This will track across AR
tonight with upper energy tracking across the Missouri Ozarks and
southeast Kansas. So, additional rain and embedded thunderstorms
will push into the area this evening and after a brief lull in the
activity, it will ramp up once again. In fact, we are expecting an
additional 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall which will linger through
Saturday. The additional rainfall will continue the flooding risk
through Saturday into Saturday night. Saturday will continue to be
an ugly day for outdoor activities with the lingering rainfall,
highs only in the upper 40s and a breezy northeast wind.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Some lingering light rain or drizzle will continue into Saturday
night as the main upper system shifts across the area. Drier air
will quickly move in behind this system, however river flooding
and areal flooding in low lying areas will likely linger through
at least Saturday night.

A warming trend and clearing will take place on Sunday with a much
drier air mass moving in. There should be plenty of sunshine
Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s Sunday and 70s on Monday.

After a brief lull in the activity at the onset of next work week,
the remainder of the week will be unsettled with additional
chances of showers and thunderstorms starting as early as Tuesday
night.

The best chance at organized convection will arrive late next week
as a deep trough begins to transition eastward into the plains and
a surface front tracks into the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Mainly IFR with some MVFR for the next 24 hour period at the 3
terminal forecast points. First round of convection has shifted
east of the area late this morning with the next round of rain
with some embedded thunderstorms pushing in from the southwest.
The rain will likely continue into the overnight hours as a strong
shortwave pushes in from Kansas and surface low pushes across AR.
Could turn into more of a drizzle/light rain heading into the last
6 to 8 hours of the TAF.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ066-077>082-088>098-
     101>106.

KS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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